2010 NCAA Football Trends: Week 5 Cheat Sheet
Last Updated: September 24th, 2010 byWeek 5 college football betting is here! Bankroll Sports is back with more NCAA football picks for Week 5 of the year, but before we do that, we need to take a look at the important trends and history that the teams that are facing against each other this week.
Thursday, September 30th: Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Aggies are 17-35-1 ATS in their L/53 following an SU win
Okie State is 11-4 ATS in its L/15 as a home favorite
The Pokes are 3-8-1 ATS in their L/12 against teams with winning records
Series History
Okie State has covered and won two straight in this series, but it hadn’t won a game since that point dating back to 2003. This is traditionally a higher scoring series to say the least, as there hasn’t even been a ‘total’ posted the 40s since 2002. Five of the L/6 have gone ‘over’ the number, with the winning team scoring at least 34 in six of the L/7.
Friday, October 1st: BYU Cougars @ Utah State Aggies
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Cougs are 1-8 ATS in their L/9 played in October
BYU is 2-7 ATS in its L/9 vs. the WAC
Utah State is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 against the MWC
Series History
These Beehive State rivals meet all the time and have clashed over each of the L/2 seasons. BYU has won both games, taking a 35-17 decision in 2009 and a 34-14 one in 2008. However, in both instances, the Aggies have turned out on the right side of the NCAA football betting lines. The L/3 meetings have gone ‘under’ the ‘total’ thanks to the fact that Utah State hasn’t scored more than 17 in a game in that stretch.
Saturday, October 2nd: Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS in their L/10 against teams with winning records
OSU is 21-5 ATS in its L/26 road games
Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its L/10 in Champaign
Series History
Upsets have happened in this series in big ways. The Illini won in the ‘Shoe in 2007, 2001, and 1999. Ironically, a home team has only won twice in this decade. The Bucks have covered two straight, winning 30-0 last year and 30-20 in 2008. This is typically a lower scoring series as well, as the L/4 clashes have all had posted ‘totals’ in the 40s. Though two of the four didn’t reach the number, none of the four reached 50 points. In fact, that barrier hasn’t been reached when these two have hooked up since 2001.
Saturday, October 2nd: Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Clemson is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 conference games.
The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their L/11 as pups of less than ten points
Miami is 12-25-1 ATS in its L/38 games as a favorite
Series History
These two teams don’t have an extensive history with one another, but all three meetings have been quite exciting. All three went into overtime and the road team captured all three outings. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS though, as they have been the underdog in all three games. The most recent meeting came last year in Miami, as the Canes dropped 40-37.
Saturday, October 2nd: Virginia Tech Hokies @ NC State Wolfpack
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their L/8 played in October
V-Tech is 7-2 ATS in its L/9 overall
Virginia Tech is 23-9 ATS in its L/32 road games
Series History
The Wolfpack only have one win in this series since 1991, that coming in Blacksburg in 2004. The Hokies have beaten the NCAA spreads by the narrowest of margins in the L/2 meetings, winning 38-10 last year at Lane Stadium and 20-16 in 2005 on Tobacco Road. The winner of this game will have made a great case to hop into the Top 25, especially if the winner is NCSU, who will jump to 5-0.
Saturday, October 2nd: Navy Midshipmen @ Air Force Falcons
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Navy is 13-3 ATS in its L/16 against the MWC
Air Force is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 on grass
The Falcons are 12-5 ATS in their L/17 at home
Series History
These two military academies always play a fantastic game, especially if you’re a fan of the triple option. Navy has won seven straight against Air Force both SU and ATS since 2003. The underdog is 8-3 ATS over the L/11, while Navy is 10-1 ATS over the L/11. Last year, the two hooked up in OT, with the Middies capturing a 16-13 decision in the extra frame.
Saturday, October 2nd: Tennessee Volunteers @ LSU Tigers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Vols have covered seven straight on the road as pups of double digits
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its L/5 overall
LSU is 8-17-1 ATS in its L/26 against SEC opponents
Series History
These two SEC powers haven’t met on the gridiron since 2007. That meeting resulted in a 21-14 win in the Bayou for the Tigers, who have won two straight. Typically, this is a relatively evenly matched affair. Tennessee holds a 6-4 SU edge, while LSU has a 5-3-2 ATS advantage over the L/10 meetings. The Vols had won at Tiger Stadium in three of the previous four meetings before the ’07 defeat.
Saturday, October 2nd: Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma Sooners
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Longhorns have covered seven straight following a double digit home loss
Texas is 11-5 ATS following an SU defeat
Oklahoma is 9-4-1 ATS in its L/14 against the Big XII
Series History
These two teams certainly don’t like each other, and it’s going show once again on Saturday in the Red River Rivalry. Texas has won two straight and four out of five, going 4-0-1 ATS since 2005. Before that though, this series simply belonged to Oklahoma. The Sooners posted an aggregate victory of 189-54 in five covers from 2000 to 2004.
Saturday, October 2nd: Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Wisconsin is only 6-13 ATS in its L/19 road games
Michigan State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its L/11 overall
The Badgers are just 1-3 ATS in 2010
Series History
Home teams have won five straight in this series dating back to 2003, though it hasn’t always been that way from an ATS standpoint. Wisconsin covered two straight in ’08 and ’09, but before that in ’04 and ’07, Sparty proved to be the right side. The L/3 meetings have been decided by a total of 12 points. Six of the L/7 have eclipsed the ‘total’.
Saturday, October 2nd: Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers
NCAA Football Trends of Note
Michigan is 2-7 ATS in its L/9 in October
The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their L/10 road games
Indiana is only 3-7 ATS in its L/10 played in October
Series History
You have to go back quite some ways to find the last time that Indiana won a game in this series, but it nearly pulled off the shocker last year in the Big House. Facing an 18.5 point spread, the Hoosiers came into Ann Arbor and led the Wolverines for a good chunk of the game before succumbing 36-33. It marked their first cover in this series since 2003, a stretch of three straight games.
Saturday, October 2nd: Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon Ducks
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Cardinal have covered four straight following an SU victory
Stanford is just 3-7 ATS in its L/10 road games against teams with a winning home record
The Ducks are just 5-12 ATS in their L/17 when they are favored by less than ten points
Series History
Before last season’s 51-42 Stanford win, this series was really all one way traffic for the Quack Attack. Oregon had won eight straight and covered seven of the eight, including all of the meetings from 2002 to 2007. This is typically a higher scoring series as well, as the L/5 have all gone past the ‘total’, with the lowest ‘total’ of the bunch was 52.5 in that stretch.
Saturday, October 2nd: Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College Eagles
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Irish are 4-11 ATS in their L/15 overall
BC is 5-16 ATS in its L/21 against teams with losing records
The Eagles have covered three of the L/4 and six of the L/10 in this series
Series History
The Irish broke Boston College’s six game winning streak in this battle of the two Catholic schools last year with a 20-16 win in South Bend. However, that victory didn’t result in a cover. The last time Notre Dame both covered and won against the Eagles in the same year was in 2000, a 28-16 victory. The L/3 have all gone ‘under’ the number, while no team has scored in the 30s in this series since 1999.
Saturday, October 2nd: Florida Gators @ Alabama Crimson Tide
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Gators are 12-3 ATS in their L/15 roadies
Florida is 23-6 ATS in its L/29 against teams with a winning record
The Gators are 19-7 ATS in their L/26 overall
Series History
Recent history tells you that the winner of this game wins the National Championship… At least that’s been the case the L/2 seasons in the SEC Championship Game. The teams are both 1-1 SU and ATS over the L/2 years. The last regular season meeting came in 2006 in Gainesville, a 28-13 win for the Gators. The Tide last won in the regular season at home in 2005 by the count of 31-3. Each team won on the road in 1998 and 1999, but Alabama had covered five straight and went 6-0-1 ATS from 1994 until 2006.
Saturday, October 2nd: Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes
NCAA Football Trends of Note
The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 against PSU
Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its L/9 in October
The Hawkeyes are 12-4 ATS in their L/16 against teams with a winning record
Series History
For whatever reason, the Hawkeyes just seem to have Joe Pa’s number. The Nittany Lions have been favored in this series in four straight and nine out of ten dating back to 1996, but they are only a woeful 2-8 SU. These teams have played some ugly encounters as well, including a 6-4 final in Happy Valley in 2004 and last year’s 21-10 final, also in University Park. Iowa hasn’t lost to Penn State at home since 1999, but even then it covered the four TD spread.
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