Archive for December 15th, 2010

NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers Props 12/16

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers Props 12/16

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Both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers were able to save their respective seasons last week, but they are both still clearly on life support and need some major help to be able to get through to the playoffs. Losing this one is not an option for either team, as one will have one foot in the grave and the other on the banana peel when this one is over with. Ready for your NFL picks for props in this one? Check out the best San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers picks we have for Thursday Night Football!

Longest Field Goal Over/Under 44.5 Yards
Since coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Jeff Reed has done a nice job with the Niners, going 7-for-7 on field goals attempts. Though he has yet to boot one over 44 yards , he does have a pair of 50+ yarders to his credit as well, and you know if you can kick it 50+ yards in Heinz Field, you can kick it 60+ anywhere else. K Nate Kaeding is back as well for the Chargers, and that’s good news for those of us that are big time fans of booting the ball a long, long way. Since coming back, Kaeding has only missed twice on ten attempts, and one of those was from 56 yards out. Kaeding is the more likely of these two kickers to nail a long field goal, and especially in a game in which defense could be the theme, especially down tight, we tend to believe that there will be a field goal made Over 44.5 Yards (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) long on Thursday Night Football.

Alex Smith Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards
We just knew that the oddsmakers were going to come out and put a bad number like this one on the board in this spot. Smith really looked like a totally different quarterback when he came back to the fold on Sunday, as he threw for 255 yards and three TDs. What we have to remember is that that came in a big time win as well. The rushing game just isn’t good enough to be able to carry the load without RB Frank Gore in the fold, and the end result is going to require Smith to throw more passes to get the job done. This might be one of the best secondaries statistically in football, but we’re tending to want to throw those out when analyzing this one. The weapons are there on this San Fran team to make some real noise, and if that’s the case, especially if it is playing from behind most of, or the entire way, Smith should have no problems going Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Vernon Davis Over/Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
This is the same type of logic that we are going to use with Davis as we did with Smith just a moment ago. The big time tight end had a great game last week, catching five passes for 70 yards and a TD. In the games that Smith has both started and finished, Davis has gotten to at least 70 yards through the air five times in nine tries. That’s a heck of a percentage from our standpoint, as we know that we are going to make a ton of money over the long haul at that type of percentage. Normally, we hate playing props like this one against teams with tremendous linebacking cores, but there really might not be much other choice for Smith but to work the ball to his tight end, especially if the corners take the deep game away from WR Michael Crabtree. It might not be the prettiest prop in the world, but Davis should go Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Chargers.

Philip Rivers Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
You have to be a believer in the fact that the 49ers have a secondary that is better than their stats suggest in this one. Rivers has thrown at least two TD passes in all but four of his games this year, but he would need to keep up at a rate like this all season long to be able to beat this prop this often. We’re not so sure that he can do it, especially knowing that this is a fight for San Fran’s life as well. Though we know that more often than not, especially at home, the San Diego signal caller is going to find the end zone at least twice on the day, he has only thrown three scores in total in his L/3 overall. Are things decaying? It’s quite possible. Don’t be shocked if Rivers stays Under 1.5 TD Passes (+180 at Hollywood Sportsbook) and gives us a huge cash.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Picks: Ohio vs. Troy Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Picks: Ohio vs. Troy Analysis

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Down in the Bayou, representatives from the MAC and the Sun Belt are going to square off, as the Ohio Bobcats match up with the Troy Trojans in the New Orleans Bowl. These two teams have both had very up and down seasons, but they come together having just barely squeaked into the second season. Which one of these teams will be able to beat the slender college football odds on this day? Find out as we offer the keys to beating the New Orleans Bowl lines for Saturday night.

Key #1: Boo Jackson has to put up better numbers against an iffy defense… if he plays
If the Trojans had a major problem this year, it was that their defense was incredibly inconsistent. The unit ranked No. 101 against the pass this year at 247.6 yards per game, and they were just a pitiful No. 94 overall at 419.2 yards per game. There weren’t many bowl teams on this schedule this year, as there were only four teams that are going to the second season. The game against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders should probably be thrown out, as it was the first time that QB Dwight Dasher suited up this season. However, in the other three games against bowl teams, Troy allowed 41 points to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 52 to the Florida International Golden Panthers, and 69 to the South Carolina Gamecocks. Now a senior, QB Boo Jackson is playing in his final game with the Bobcats. He really did nothing but digress for the majority of his career after a stunning sophomore campaign, and his last few games of the regular season were probably his worst. Jackson was intercepted in ten of his 12 games this year, and the fact that he threw for just 133 yards and two picks against the Kent State Golden Flashes in the last game of the season was what kept the Bobcats out of the MAC Championship Game. Jackson had four games this year where he didn’t even get to double digits in completions, and for a man that doesn’t have a stellar running game, nor a solid set of legs himself, only throwing for 1,688 yards just didn’t cut it. He hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in a game all season long and will probably need more than that to survive against Troy. The problem that Jackson has right now is that he is fighting bowl eligibility issues. He has undisclosed academic problems right now, and at least as far as this point, he hasn’t made the trek to the Crescent City with the rest of the team. If that’s the case, the man that started the season, QB Phillip Bates, the team’s second leading rusher, is going to be calling the shots.

New Orleans Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook 
Ohio Bobcats +2
Troy Trojans -2
Over/Under 58
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Key #2: Corey Robinson has to be a strong leader, even as just a freshman
QB Corey Robinson has plenty of college football left in his arm, and he has had a great first year at the helm in Troy. He has thrown for 3,339 yards and 24 TDs already, and he has had eight games with at least two TD passes on the year. Robinson really became the only quarterback option for the team over the course of the last month or so of the season, as the rest of the signal callers sort of became obsolete all of a sudden. In that last month of the year, Robinson threw for 300+ yards in three of his five games, giving him a total of five 300+ yard games on the campaign. The key is going to be his completion percentage. In games in which the frosh completed at least 60% of his passes, he is 6-1. In games in which he was under that 60% barrier, the team went just 1-4, and several of those losses were brutal. This is a relatively young Troy team that is direly still looking for a leader. This is the game where Robinson can step up and take charge, setting the tone for the next three years, and if he does, the Trojans will be tough to stop.

Key #3: Ohio needs to keep tabs on Jerrel Jernigan
In his career, WR Jerrel Jernigan has done just about everything that a man can do on a football field. He is just one catch away from setting a career high in receptions this year, and though he probably isn’t having his best season, he is also clearly not playing on a team that is as talented as it was when QB Levi Brown was calling the shots. Jernigan has already accounted for 5,916 yards in his career between rushing, receiving, returning, and passing, and he has been good for 774 receiving yards, 301 punt return yards, 600 kick return yards, 306 rushing yards, and 41 passing yards this year to go with nine TDs. The 2,022 yards is a career high, and left Jernigan with an average of 168.5 yards per game that he accounts for by himself. The Bobcats have a defense which is surrendering just 316.6 yards per game, and this unit really needs to make sure that it keeps tabs on Jernigan at all times to be successful in this one.

Humanitarian Bowl Picks: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Humanitarian Bowl Picks: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Analysis
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If you’re a fan of NCAA football picks, you’re going to love the Humanitarian Bowl this year! Two of the more underrated mid major clubs in the country lock horns on Boise State’s Smurf Turf, as the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have already been crippled once on this field, take on the Northern Illinois Huskies. This is the second bowl game of the year and is one that you certainly won’t want to miss out on. But will it be the MAC or the WAC that is celebrating when this toss up is over with? The oddsmakers can’t figure out who to favor in this one, but we certainly can help you pick out a winner! Check out these keys to the game you must consider before making your Humanitarian Bowl picks!

Key #1: Northern Illinois has to act like a team that wants to be here
The Huskies finally have their new man, as former Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Coordinator Dave Doeren is going to be taking over at the conclusion of this game. However, the man in charge now is linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz, as he has been leading the team in preparation for the Humanitarian Bowl. The departure of Head Coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers came as a bit of a surprise to many, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been for the Huskies. They just barely had cracked the Top 25 after going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in MAC play, and they clearly play in an inferior conference to Minnesota. Now, without a real leader, the Huskies have to unite and come back from the devastating loss in the MAC Championship Game to the Miami Redhawks as well. We tend to believe that NIU has the better team in this game, but if it doesn’t play like it wants to be here in Boise, it is probably going to end up on the short end of the stick.

Humanitarian Bowl Odds at JustBet
Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Fresno State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 58.5
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Key #2: Ryan Colburn and the rushing game must keep Fresno State balanced
Northern Illinois had one of the most balanced defenses in the entire country this year, holding teams to just 328.2 yards per game and ranking No. 35 or better in every major defensive category. At times this year though, the Bulldogs didn’t stay as true to themselves both with the pass and with the run. It seemed as though when RB Robbie Rouse was in the game, he was the one getting the football. Rouse touched the ball 205 times in just ten games this year, and he accounted for over 1,200 yards of offense and ten of the team’s 41 offensive TDs. When Rouse wasn’t in there though, there was no confidence in any other running back and QB Ryan Colburn was stuck putting the ball in the air a ton. Colburn threw for 2,529 yards this year, but his numbers were all over the board to get there. He put the ball up 33 or more times four times this year, but he also threw 26 or fewer times eight times. Needless to say, this type of inconsistency just isn’t going to cut it, especially when you know that the best opponents you have played have killed you this year. In these games against the Hawaii Warriors, Boise State Broncos, and Nevada Wolf Pack, Colburn threw for just 176.0 yards per game and completed an average of just 13.7 passes per game. That won’t cut it against Northern Illinois. Both Colburn and Rouse have to keep their acts together at the same time, or stopping this Huskies defense is going to be impossible.

Key #3: Chandler Harnish must be forced into some mistakes
QB Chandler Harnish did a fantastic job all season long taking care of the football. The junior only threw five picks for the campaign, and he hasn’t thrown a blunder since the end of the game against the Ball State Cardinals back on November 20th. He also has seven TDs in that stretch. A 20/5 TD/INT ratio for the season was the best for any signal caller in the MAC and one of the best in the entire country, and Harnish should be proud of that. The only thing that gets him in trouble at times is when he tries to do too much with his legs but cannot figure out how to get all the way to the perimeter to break loose. Harnish has a great running back to rely on in RB Chad Spann, and stopping Spann is going to be virtually impossible as it is for a rush defense that was really worked over by a few teams this year. Harnish had five games this year with at least 70 yards on the ground, including three with at least 110. If he has that type of momentum and isn’t making mistakes, this offense for Northern Illinois is very, very tough to stop. There’s a reason these guys scored an average of 47.8 points per game in the regular season in conference play this year.

New Mexico Bowl Picks: BYU Cougars vs. UTEP Miners Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on New Mexico Bowl Picks: BYU Cougars vs. UTEP Miners Analysis

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The New Mexico Bowl will kick off the 2010 bowl season on Saturday afternoon, and here at Bankroll Sports, we have the ins and outs covered for a great game for you to make your NCAA football picks for. The BYU Cougars and UTEP Miners really played opposite seasons of each other, as the Miners started off strong and limped to the finish line, while BYU won five straight games to become bowl eligible before losing the Holy War to the Utah Utes by a narrow margin. Which team will end up beating the 11.5 point spread in favor of the Cougs? Check out these three New Mexico Bowl keys to the game.

Key #1: Protecting Trevor Vittatoe
The BYU defense has done a great job this year against opposing passing games, especially in the second half of the campaign. The team only allowed 187.8 yards per game this year through the air, one of the top marks in the MWC and good enough to rank No. 21 in the country. No one threw for over 300 yards on this ‘D’ all season long. For UTEP, QB Trevor Vittatoe is dealing with an ankle injury, and though he is going to be playing in the game, he is probably going to be hobbled just a bit as well. Over the course of the last three seasons, the signal call was sacked 21, 25, and 22 times respectively, but the OL did a lot nicer job this year, allowing him to get dropped behind the line just 14 times. Of late, those numbers are getting worse, and more and more pressure is getting into his face. Vittatoe has only completed 37 passes over his last three games, and he hasn’t made it to the 200 yard mark in any of those efforts, averaging under 150 yards per game. He hasn’t thrown a TD pass in almost nine quarters of game time and has been picked off twice in that stretch as well. It’s fairly clear that, when given a chance, Vittatoe is lethal. He threw for 340 yards and three TDs against the Houston Cougars and 246 yards and five scores against the New Mexico State Aggies. However, this is probably the best pass defense he has seen all season long, and if the Cougs get to him in the backfield consistently, the Miners are in some big time trouble.

New Mexico Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Fresno State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 58.5
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Key #2: Jake Heaps needs to play like the signal caller he was in the final four games of the year and not the one from the first two months
True freshmen sometimes get a bad rap for the way that they play. Sometimes it’s justified and they just never grow into themselves. Other times, they just need some more time to shine. That’s exactly what happened with QB Jake Heaps this year for the Cougs. He started off the season splitting reps with QB Riley Nelson, a far more experienced and significantly more mobile option. However, HC Bronco Mendenhall turned the keys to the car, per se, over to Heaps going into the game against the Nevada Wolf Pack. He struggled mightily in his first four games as the lone starter, throwing six picks and no scores. However, since the start of November, Heaps has been fantastic. He has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for an average of just under 250 yards per game with nine TDs and just one INT. All but two of his TD passes this year came in the month of November. Remember last year when Utah Utes QB Jordan Wynn really shined brightly down the stretch and in his bowl game? That’s exactly what Heaps has to do here in the New Mexico Bowl to beat the Miners.

Key #3: Someone aside from JJ Luigi needs to help Heaps out
RB JJ Di Luigi did just about everything for the Cougars this year. He had the most carries on the team (158), the most receptions (42), the most rushing yards (819), the most receiving yards (422) and the most total TDs (8). We know that, whether as a rusher or a receiver, Di Luigi is going to get his numbers, and there is nothing that the UTEP defense can do about it. What the Miners have to do though, is shut down everyone else around him. RBs Bryan Kariya and Joshua Quezada have combined for over 1,000 total yards from scrimmage this year, but there isn’t a receiver out there that has more than 34 catches or even 400 yards for BYU aside from Di Luigi. We know that both WR Cody Hoffman and WR Luke Ashworth are threats, but that doesn’t mean that they are going to be able to really bust out. UTEP has to contain these men on the outside and keep from letting the big play happen. There was only one pass play all season long that went for more than 50 yards for the Cougars, and the Miners need to make sure that it stays that way.