Archive for December, 2010

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Picks: Ohio vs. Troy Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Picks: Ohio vs. Troy Analysis

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Down in the Bayou, representatives from the MAC and the Sun Belt are going to square off, as the Ohio Bobcats match up with the Troy Trojans in the New Orleans Bowl. These two teams have both had very up and down seasons, but they come together having just barely squeaked into the second season. Which one of these teams will be able to beat the slender college football odds on this day? Find out as we offer the keys to beating the New Orleans Bowl lines for Saturday night.

Key #1: Boo Jackson has to put up better numbers against an iffy defense… if he plays
If the Trojans had a major problem this year, it was that their defense was incredibly inconsistent. The unit ranked No. 101 against the pass this year at 247.6 yards per game, and they were just a pitiful No. 94 overall at 419.2 yards per game. There weren’t many bowl teams on this schedule this year, as there were only four teams that are going to the second season. The game against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders should probably be thrown out, as it was the first time that QB Dwight Dasher suited up this season. However, in the other three games against bowl teams, Troy allowed 41 points to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 52 to the Florida International Golden Panthers, and 69 to the South Carolina Gamecocks. Now a senior, QB Boo Jackson is playing in his final game with the Bobcats. He really did nothing but digress for the majority of his career after a stunning sophomore campaign, and his last few games of the regular season were probably his worst. Jackson was intercepted in ten of his 12 games this year, and the fact that he threw for just 133 yards and two picks against the Kent State Golden Flashes in the last game of the season was what kept the Bobcats out of the MAC Championship Game. Jackson had four games this year where he didn’t even get to double digits in completions, and for a man that doesn’t have a stellar running game, nor a solid set of legs himself, only throwing for 1,688 yards just didn’t cut it. He hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in a game all season long and will probably need more than that to survive against Troy. The problem that Jackson has right now is that he is fighting bowl eligibility issues. He has undisclosed academic problems right now, and at least as far as this point, he hasn’t made the trek to the Crescent City with the rest of the team. If that’s the case, the man that started the season, QB Phillip Bates, the team’s second leading rusher, is going to be calling the shots.

New Orleans Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook 
Ohio Bobcats +2
Troy Trojans -2
Over/Under 58
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Key #2: Corey Robinson has to be a strong leader, even as just a freshman
QB Corey Robinson has plenty of college football left in his arm, and he has had a great first year at the helm in Troy. He has thrown for 3,339 yards and 24 TDs already, and he has had eight games with at least two TD passes on the year. Robinson really became the only quarterback option for the team over the course of the last month or so of the season, as the rest of the signal callers sort of became obsolete all of a sudden. In that last month of the year, Robinson threw for 300+ yards in three of his five games, giving him a total of five 300+ yard games on the campaign. The key is going to be his completion percentage. In games in which the frosh completed at least 60% of his passes, he is 6-1. In games in which he was under that 60% barrier, the team went just 1-4, and several of those losses were brutal. This is a relatively young Troy team that is direly still looking for a leader. This is the game where Robinson can step up and take charge, setting the tone for the next three years, and if he does, the Trojans will be tough to stop.

Key #3: Ohio needs to keep tabs on Jerrel Jernigan
In his career, WR Jerrel Jernigan has done just about everything that a man can do on a football field. He is just one catch away from setting a career high in receptions this year, and though he probably isn’t having his best season, he is also clearly not playing on a team that is as talented as it was when QB Levi Brown was calling the shots. Jernigan has already accounted for 5,916 yards in his career between rushing, receiving, returning, and passing, and he has been good for 774 receiving yards, 301 punt return yards, 600 kick return yards, 306 rushing yards, and 41 passing yards this year to go with nine TDs. The 2,022 yards is a career high, and left Jernigan with an average of 168.5 yards per game that he accounts for by himself. The Bobcats have a defense which is surrendering just 316.6 yards per game, and this unit really needs to make sure that it keeps tabs on Jernigan at all times to be successful in this one.

Humanitarian Bowl Picks: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Humanitarian Bowl Picks: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Analysis
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If you’re a fan of NCAA football picks, you’re going to love the Humanitarian Bowl this year! Two of the more underrated mid major clubs in the country lock horns on Boise State’s Smurf Turf, as the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have already been crippled once on this field, take on the Northern Illinois Huskies. This is the second bowl game of the year and is one that you certainly won’t want to miss out on. But will it be the MAC or the WAC that is celebrating when this toss up is over with? The oddsmakers can’t figure out who to favor in this one, but we certainly can help you pick out a winner! Check out these keys to the game you must consider before making your Humanitarian Bowl picks!

Key #1: Northern Illinois has to act like a team that wants to be here
The Huskies finally have their new man, as former Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Coordinator Dave Doeren is going to be taking over at the conclusion of this game. However, the man in charge now is linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz, as he has been leading the team in preparation for the Humanitarian Bowl. The departure of Head Coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers came as a bit of a surprise to many, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been for the Huskies. They just barely had cracked the Top 25 after going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in MAC play, and they clearly play in an inferior conference to Minnesota. Now, without a real leader, the Huskies have to unite and come back from the devastating loss in the MAC Championship Game to the Miami Redhawks as well. We tend to believe that NIU has the better team in this game, but if it doesn’t play like it wants to be here in Boise, it is probably going to end up on the short end of the stick.

Humanitarian Bowl Odds at JustBet
Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Fresno State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 58.5
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Key #2: Ryan Colburn and the rushing game must keep Fresno State balanced
Northern Illinois had one of the most balanced defenses in the entire country this year, holding teams to just 328.2 yards per game and ranking No. 35 or better in every major defensive category. At times this year though, the Bulldogs didn’t stay as true to themselves both with the pass and with the run. It seemed as though when RB Robbie Rouse was in the game, he was the one getting the football. Rouse touched the ball 205 times in just ten games this year, and he accounted for over 1,200 yards of offense and ten of the team’s 41 offensive TDs. When Rouse wasn’t in there though, there was no confidence in any other running back and QB Ryan Colburn was stuck putting the ball in the air a ton. Colburn threw for 2,529 yards this year, but his numbers were all over the board to get there. He put the ball up 33 or more times four times this year, but he also threw 26 or fewer times eight times. Needless to say, this type of inconsistency just isn’t going to cut it, especially when you know that the best opponents you have played have killed you this year. In these games against the Hawaii Warriors, Boise State Broncos, and Nevada Wolf Pack, Colburn threw for just 176.0 yards per game and completed an average of just 13.7 passes per game. That won’t cut it against Northern Illinois. Both Colburn and Rouse have to keep their acts together at the same time, or stopping this Huskies defense is going to be impossible.

Key #3: Chandler Harnish must be forced into some mistakes
QB Chandler Harnish did a fantastic job all season long taking care of the football. The junior only threw five picks for the campaign, and he hasn’t thrown a blunder since the end of the game against the Ball State Cardinals back on November 20th. He also has seven TDs in that stretch. A 20/5 TD/INT ratio for the season was the best for any signal caller in the MAC and one of the best in the entire country, and Harnish should be proud of that. The only thing that gets him in trouble at times is when he tries to do too much with his legs but cannot figure out how to get all the way to the perimeter to break loose. Harnish has a great running back to rely on in RB Chad Spann, and stopping Spann is going to be virtually impossible as it is for a rush defense that was really worked over by a few teams this year. Harnish had five games this year with at least 70 yards on the ground, including three with at least 110. If he has that type of momentum and isn’t making mistakes, this offense for Northern Illinois is very, very tough to stop. There’s a reason these guys scored an average of 47.8 points per game in the regular season in conference play this year.

New Mexico Bowl Picks: BYU Cougars vs. UTEP Miners Analysis

December 15th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on New Mexico Bowl Picks: BYU Cougars vs. UTEP Miners Analysis

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The New Mexico Bowl will kick off the 2010 bowl season on Saturday afternoon, and here at Bankroll Sports, we have the ins and outs covered for a great game for you to make your NCAA football picks for. The BYU Cougars and UTEP Miners really played opposite seasons of each other, as the Miners started off strong and limped to the finish line, while BYU won five straight games to become bowl eligible before losing the Holy War to the Utah Utes by a narrow margin. Which team will end up beating the 11.5 point spread in favor of the Cougs? Check out these three New Mexico Bowl keys to the game.

Key #1: Protecting Trevor Vittatoe
The BYU defense has done a great job this year against opposing passing games, especially in the second half of the campaign. The team only allowed 187.8 yards per game this year through the air, one of the top marks in the MWC and good enough to rank No. 21 in the country. No one threw for over 300 yards on this ‘D’ all season long. For UTEP, QB Trevor Vittatoe is dealing with an ankle injury, and though he is going to be playing in the game, he is probably going to be hobbled just a bit as well. Over the course of the last three seasons, the signal call was sacked 21, 25, and 22 times respectively, but the OL did a lot nicer job this year, allowing him to get dropped behind the line just 14 times. Of late, those numbers are getting worse, and more and more pressure is getting into his face. Vittatoe has only completed 37 passes over his last three games, and he hasn’t made it to the 200 yard mark in any of those efforts, averaging under 150 yards per game. He hasn’t thrown a TD pass in almost nine quarters of game time and has been picked off twice in that stretch as well. It’s fairly clear that, when given a chance, Vittatoe is lethal. He threw for 340 yards and three TDs against the Houston Cougars and 246 yards and five scores against the New Mexico State Aggies. However, this is probably the best pass defense he has seen all season long, and if the Cougs get to him in the backfield consistently, the Miners are in some big time trouble.

New Mexico Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Fresno State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 58.5
Click Here to Bet on Your New Mexico Bowl Picks!
 

Key #2: Jake Heaps needs to play like the signal caller he was in the final four games of the year and not the one from the first two months
True freshmen sometimes get a bad rap for the way that they play. Sometimes it’s justified and they just never grow into themselves. Other times, they just need some more time to shine. That’s exactly what happened with QB Jake Heaps this year for the Cougs. He started off the season splitting reps with QB Riley Nelson, a far more experienced and significantly more mobile option. However, HC Bronco Mendenhall turned the keys to the car, per se, over to Heaps going into the game against the Nevada Wolf Pack. He struggled mightily in his first four games as the lone starter, throwing six picks and no scores. However, since the start of November, Heaps has been fantastic. He has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for an average of just under 250 yards per game with nine TDs and just one INT. All but two of his TD passes this year came in the month of November. Remember last year when Utah Utes QB Jordan Wynn really shined brightly down the stretch and in his bowl game? That’s exactly what Heaps has to do here in the New Mexico Bowl to beat the Miners.

Key #3: Someone aside from JJ Luigi needs to help Heaps out
RB JJ Di Luigi did just about everything for the Cougars this year. He had the most carries on the team (158), the most receptions (42), the most rushing yards (819), the most receiving yards (422) and the most total TDs (8). We know that, whether as a rusher or a receiver, Di Luigi is going to get his numbers, and there is nothing that the UTEP defense can do about it. What the Miners have to do though, is shut down everyone else around him. RBs Bryan Kariya and Joshua Quezada have combined for over 1,000 total yards from scrimmage this year, but there isn’t a receiver out there that has more than 34 catches or even 400 yards for BYU aside from Di Luigi. We know that both WR Cody Hoffman and WR Luke Ashworth are threats, but that doesn’t mean that they are going to be able to really bust out. UTEP has to contain these men on the outside and keep from letting the big play happen. There was only one pass play all season long that went for more than 50 yards for the Cougars, and the Miners need to make sure that it stays that way.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (12/13/10)

December 12th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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The playoff push will be the main topic in the AFC on Monday Night Football this week, as the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are going to be fighting it out with their postseason hopes on the line. The Texans probably need this one to have any chance of making it to the second season, while Baltimore at least has a little bit of leeway. Our NFL prop picks for MNF are always ready to go here at Bankroll Sports, and this Monday night is no exception!

Joe Flacco Over/Under 261.5 Passing Yards
We wouldn’t necessarily care what the name was on the front or the back of the jersey in this one. The mass majority of quarterbacks are going to be throwing for at least 262 yards against this Houston secondary no matter how much of a blowout the game really turns out to be. Save a three INT game for Glover Quin against arguably the worst starting quarterback the NFL has seen in years, QB Rusty Smith, the Texans have had absolutely no luck stopping anyone. Head Coach John Harbaugh has made a more concerted effort at throwing the ball this year to take some of the pressure off of RB Ray Rice and the running game. The offensive line is going to be able to let Flacco just stand in the pocket and pick apart this horrendous secondary, and there should be absolutely no doubt that he goes Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Anquan Boldin Over/Under 66.5 Receiving Yards
You know where we’re going with this one. All of the receiving options are particularly strong in this game for the Ravens, and this is probably the best of the bunch. ‘Quan is going to be matched up with Quin the majority of the game, and he is clearly the weakest link in that Houston secondary. Truth be told, Boldin has only gone past this number five times this season, and three of those five came in the first four games of the year. However, these secondaries that he has been going against haven’t been nearly as bad as the one that he is going to be facing on Monday. We tend to believe that this could be a career day for the former Florida State Seminole. Boldin should fly Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Matt Schaub Over/Under 245.5 Passing Yards
Things really haven’t gone all that well for the Texans’ signal caller this year, as he doesn’t have the types of numbers that warrant him being a Pro Bowler this year as many suggested at the start of the season. Still, this is probably going to be a situation in which this team has to play from behind virtually the entire way, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Though this Baltimore defense is only allowing 208.0 yards per game through the air, we have to remember that sack yardage does not count against us in this one. There have also been some dreadful passing games run up against these Ravens, including those of the Pittsburgh Steelers (twice), that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that of the Cleveland Browns. This is a great spot, especially in the second half, for Schaub to go soaring Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Ravens.

Will Arian Foster Score a Touchdown?
Last week, we backed Foster on this prop on Thursday Night Football, and we are going to be utilizing him once again. Of the 33 offensive touchdowns that the Texans have scored this year, Foster has found pay dirt 15 times, virtually every other touchdown. He has touched the ball 296 times already this season and is clearly the goal line back as well. The only issue that we have here is if the Ravens just find a way to really shut the Texans down all together. But, seeing how this game is at home and that Houston is prone to scoring at least 20 points or so here, there is no reason to believe that Foster won’t get the job done and put six on the board at least once. He has scored at least one TD in eight of the team’s 12 games this year, giving us a great percentage on a very easy prop. Foster Will Score a Touchdown (-125 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

2010 NFL Week 14 Lines – Week Fourteen Lines Breakdown

December 11th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Week 14 Lines – Week Fourteen Lines Breakdown

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Complete List of Week 14 NFL Lines Can Be Found Below

Week 14 of the 2010 NFL campaign is going to get underway this weekend. Below you will find the current list of 2010 Week 14 NFL lines and spreads along with a breakdown of the Week 14 NFL odds. Be sure to check out the free NFL picks from the expert handicappers at Bankroll Sports this weekend…

Seasons very well could be on the line in Week 14 of the NFL schedule, as we are getting closer and closer to the end of the campaign. A number of teams are probably starting four week stretches in which they have to win out to be one of the 12 teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy in January and February.

One of those teams is clearly the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have watched, as QB Peyton Manning has tossed an inexplicable 11 picks in his last three games combined. Manning has clearly struggled, but it’s not like the rest of the team has been innocent in this three game skid. Indy is now a game back with just four to play in the AFC South, and it is a three point favorite on Thursday Night Football against the Tennessee Titans, who might be playing for their Head Coach, Jeff Fisher’s job.

We immediately jump from the first game of the weekend to the final game of the weekend to make NFL picks on. The Baltimore Ravens certainly aren’t in a must win spot right now, as they are 8-4 and still two games up on the field for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC South. However, the Houston Texans are on life support right now at 5-7 for the fourth straight season under Head Coach Gary Kubiak. This is typically the time of year that Kubiak and company turn it on, especially last year, when the team won its final four games. This is going to be a significantly tougher task though, as the Ravens have one of hte best teams in the NFL. If Houston wins this one, it could be back within a game of perhaps its only potential playoff spot, the AFC South title. If it does so though, it is going to have to do it as a three point underdog at home.

No team needs a win on Sunday like the San Diego Chargers. The Bolts inexplicably fell to the Oakland Raiders last weekend at home as two TD favorites, and they’ll have to avoid that same sort of fate this weekend when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town. The Chiefs actually look like they can become the first team to clinch a playoff berth this year, and not the first team to choke their spot away. An upset in this one parlayed with a loss by the Oakland Raiders against the Jacksonville Jaguars eliminates the Chargers from playoff contention and moves KC within just one win or an Oakland loss of winning the division. Still, the oddsmakers remember what it was like to see San Diego roll off so many games at the end of last season (and the season before… and the season before that… oh, and the season before that as well), and they have lined it as a seven point underdog even though it is two games back in the AFC West.

The San Francisco 49ers are in the same sort of predicament. They are only at 4-8, but the co-division leading Seattle Seahawks are in town this weekend. A loss officially eliminates the Niners from the playoffs and probably immediately hands Head Coach Mike Singletary his pink slip once and for all. A win probably puts San Fran just a game back in the NFC West, as the St. Louis Rams are the biggest underdogs on the board this weekend at +9 against the New Orleans Saints. As for the 49ers? They are favored by 4.5 at home against a Seattle team that finally woke up in the second half last week against the Carolina Panthers.

As for those Panthers, they have to contend with one of the best teams in the NFL this week, as the Atlanta Falcons are paying a visit to Tobacco Road. Carolina looks like an absolutely helpless team right now, and there might not be any way out of this predicament of having the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NBA Draft. The Falcons are still flying high though, and this week doesn’t seem to be anything more than a bump on the schedule. They are 7.5 point favorites and are expected to roll to within just two more wins of the top seed in the NFC side of the playoffs.

2010 NFL Football Week 14 Lines @ Oddsmaker Sportsbook (as of 12/7/10):
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Week 14 NFL Odds for Thursday, 12/9/10

101 Indianapolis Colts -3
102 Tennessee Titans +3
Over/Under 46

Week 14 Lines for Sunday, 12/12/10

105 Oakland Raiders +3.5
106 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
Over/Under 42

107 Cincinnati Bengals +8
108 Pittsburgh Steelers -8
Over/Under 39

109 New England Patriots -2
110 Chicago Bears +2
Over/Under 38.5

111 Cleveland Browns +1
112 Buffalo Bills -1
Over/Under 39

113 New York Giants -3
114 Minnesota Vikings +3
Over/Under 43

115 Green Bay Packers -6.5
116 Detroit Lions +6.5
Over/Under 47

117 Atlanta Falcons -7
118 Carolina Panthers +7
Over/Under 42.5

119 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5
120 Washington Redskins +1.5
Over/Under 41

121 St. Louis Rams +8.5
122 New Orleans Saints -8.5
Over/Under 41

123 Seattle Seahawks +5
124 San Francisco 49ers -5
Over/Under 41.5

125 Miami Dolphins +5
126 New York Jets -5
Over/Under 39

127 Denver Broncos -4
128 Arizona Cardinals +4
Over/Under 42.5

129 Kansas City Chiefs +9
130 San Diego Chargers -9
Over/Under 45

131 Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
132 Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Over/Under 51

Week 14 Spreads for Monday, 12/13/10

133 Baltimore Ravens -3
134 Houston Texans +3
Over/Under 46

Latest 2010 Heisman Trophy Odds, Free Picks, & Analysis

December 11th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Latest 2010 Heisman Trophy Odds, Free Picks, & Analysis

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Complete List of The Current 2010 Heisman Trophy Odds Can Be Found Below

Tonight, the Heisman Trophy will be handed out to the nation’s top player, though we are already very certain that this award will be given to the great Auburn Tigers QB Cam Newton. Newton was absolutely the top player over the course of the entire season, and if there weren’t any scandals going on about whether he or his family is being paid to play at Auburn, he would have walked away with this award comfortably with a number of weeks to spare. He still might post the biggest margin of victory for this award in its illustrious history.

Newton ended the season ranked No. 10 in the land in rushing at 1,409 yards, and he easily was the top touchdown scorer on the year, accounting for 49 total TDs. He threw for 28 of them, rushed for 20, and even caught one. Newton became the second man ever to have at least 20 passing TDs and 20 rushing scores in the same season, joining a fellow Heisman Trophy winner, QB Tim Tebow from the Florida Gators. Ironically, Newton played his first two years at the University of Florida, watching Tebow tear apart the competition in the SEC.

There is very little drama surrounding who is going to win the Heisman Trophy this year, but the runner up could be a significantly more interesting thing.

Oregon Ducks RB LaMichael James was really the favorite to finish second for the majority of the season, and for good reason. He ran hog wild on everyone in the Pac-10 this year, and he was absolutely the best player on arguably the best offense that the nation has ever seen. James, only a sophomore, had 1,702 rushing yards on the season, tops in the country. The more impressive thing that we have to remember is that unlike Newton, James only had 11 games in which to put up these stats, as he was suspended for the first game of the season against the New Mexico Lobos and didn’t get the chance to play in a Conference Championship Game like Newton did.

If James does stay with the Ducks for all four years, he is probably going to obliterate every single rushing record in the books. He already has 3,248 rushing yards for his career and he a total of 35 TDs on the ground and one through the air.

James’ top competitor for second place is Stanford Cardinal junior QB Andrew Luck, who is likely to get an even bigger prize once this season is over. You can bet that whatever team has the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft this year is going to be eyeing this signal caller. Luck is built like a prototypical quarterback, as he is 6’4″ and 235 lbs. He has a cannon for an arm, and though his legs clearly aren’t what Newton’s are, Luck has the ability to get around in the pocket and escape when he really has to.

Luck really sewed up his bid to New York in his final game of the season against the Oregon State Beavers when he threw for 305 yards and four TDs without an INT. In total, the junior has 3,045 passing yards and 28 TDs against seven picks, and his 70.2 completion percentage was one of the highest in the entire country.

The fourth finalist isn’t really expected to compete in this race, but it is nice to see Boise State Broncos QB Kellen Moore here in New York. Should Moore’s Broncos have finished off the Nevada Wolf Pack, they would be playing in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day and he would most likely have finished second in this race.

Moore has numbers that are absolutely unrealistic looking. He threw for 3,506 yards and 33 TDs, marking the third straight year in which he reached the 3,500 passing yard mark, and he now has 97 TD passes against just 18 picks for his career. Should he decide to come back to Boise for his senior year, Moore is likely to challenge all sorts of passing records. Though the Heisman Trophy is clearly out of his grasp, it is great to see a mid-major player as a finalist for college football’s biggest prize. Hawaii’s QB Colt Brennan was the last man from a mid-major conference to be a finalist for the Heisman Trophy in 2007.

Current Odds To Win The Heisman Trophy From BetUS Sportsbook (as of 12/11/2010):
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Total Number of Points for Each Heisman Trophy Finalist
Cam Newton: 2310.5
Andrew Luck: 860.5
LaMichael James: 765.5
Kellen Moore: 500.5

NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/9/10)

December 9th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Thursday Night Football Props (12/9/10)
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The Indianapolis Colts might be on life support. The Tennessee Titans certainly are. These two teams are going to have to fight tooth and nail on Thursday Night Football to be able to save their seasons, as one will be able to make up some ground on the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the other is probably going to be in a boatload of trouble, if not eliminated from playoff contention.

Peyton Manning Over/Under 28.5 Completions
We know that Manning is going to have to throw the ball a whole boatload of times to be able to beat the Titans, and it does make a ton of sense for him to have to complete upwards of 30 passes against a team that doesn’t have the greatest secondary in the world. However, Head Coach Jim Caldwell has to be able to run the ball against a defensive line that loves to get after the quarterback on a regular basis, just to slow it down. It doesn’t seem all that likely that we’re going to see No. 18 complete 29 or more passes, in spite of the fact that he is averaging over 29 per game. We think that this is a case of the oddsmakers overreacting upon the number of times that Manning had to put the ball in the air last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. This week, he’ll put up tamer numbers. Manning will stay Under 28.5 Completions (-105 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Thursday Night Football.

Will the Colts Score a Rushing Touchdown Against the Titans?
They might have to. We hate betting on props like this because the oddsmakers are constantly trying to hook us in with the “yes” bet. However, we realize that Indy is probably scoring three TDs in this game at bare minimum, and there have already been ten rushing scores on the season against 24 passing TDs. That’s a bit over a 3-1 ratio, meaning for every rushing TD, there are 2.4 passing TDs by Manning. RB Javarris James has reached pay dirt five times this season on the ground, and if Indy gets close to the end zone, he’ll be called upon to get the job done and finish things off. Again, we have to remember that this is a Tennessee team that isn’t built on the inside the same way that the Dallas Cowboys and other teams that the Colts have faced are. Indy Will Score a Rushing Touchdown (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Blair White Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
The more we see White in the lineup, the more that we like. White is consistently another one of these guys that Manning has that just runs great routes, finds ways to get to where he needs to be, and has pretty good hands. With features like that, Manning can make you a Pro Bowler in a heartbeat. White has been called upon for at least four receptions in three straight games, and though we think that Manning is going to have to do some more running of the football to get the job done in this one, White could still get his looks, particularly if he is lined up in the slot. This could be a really nice spot against a secondary that doesn’t go particularly deep to take advantage of the situation. White should go Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Titans.

Chris Johnson Over/Under 107.5 Rushing Yards
Alright CJ, now is your time! After a pair of lousy weeks, we know that Johnson is chomping at the bit, particularly in a nationally televised game, to be able to get going once again, and he knows that the Colts are the perfect matchup for him to do so. Johnson should be able to slow down the Indianapolis offense, as the Colts allowed 100 yards on the ground to RB Tashard Choice, a man that hadn’t touched the ball but a handful of times on the season coming in. Now, Johnson is all revved up after a couple of lousy games. If he can’t figure out how to get going in this one, the Titans are going to be dead in the water, especially with QB Kerry Collins calling the shots under center. Historically, this is one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL that Johnson is going again, and for that reason alone, he busts his streak and goes Over 107.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).