Archive for September 18th, 2012

NFL Prop Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Predictions 9/24

September 18th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Prop Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Predictions 9/24
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Full Packers @ Seahawks NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Russell Wilson SeahawksThe Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 3 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial primetime fight.

Total Field Goals Over/Under 3.5: The expectation is there that this is going to be a game with a lot of yards and a lot of points, but we really aren’t all that sure that there are going to be a ton of scoring opportunities. QB Aaron Rodgers is known for his big time throws that set up touchdowns, not field goals, and QB Russell Wilson isn’t going to be expected to do all that much over the course of the game. K Steven Hauschka does have five field goals on six attempts this year, while K Mason Crosby booted three field goals last week, but we expect those field goal drives to turn into touchdown drives this week for the Packers, and their defense shouldn’t be allowing more than maybe one or two three-pointers. Getting to four field goals on Monday Night Football is going to be tough. Under 3.5 Field Goals (-165)

Total Punts Over/Under 9.5: Here we go again with the punt props that we really don’t like all that much to play. However, we think that the number of drives in this game are going to be limited. We know that QB Russell Wilson isn’t going to be asked to do all that much over the course of the game, and RB Marshawn Lynch is going to run the ball a ton. QB Russell Wilson won’t put his team into all that much trouble in all likelihood, and that means that the clock is going to be running and running quite a bit. If there are a bunch of scores, that means that there won’t be much in the way of punts. If there aren’t a bunch of scores but a bunch of long drives, there’s won’t be punts either. This is a dual threat for us, and we just have a hard time seeing how there are going to be double digits worth of punts in this game. Total Punts Under 9.5 (+100)

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 24.5 Completions: It just seems like it is going to be a slam dunk, right? Rodgers to complete 25 passes in a game on the road on Monday Night Football? The problem? This is a tough Seattle defense that isn’t going to let Rodgers get the job done. Twenty five completions is a ton for any quarterback to get, especially when on the other side of the field, the team is going to be running the ball and running it a ton. We also can’t help but wonder if Rodgers is going to rip it and grip it at times against an aggressive Seattle defense that is going to be amped up. Getting a 60-yard pass down the field will be great for getting to Rodgers’ passing total, but it isn’t going to help him get to his completion mark. Go with Rodgers to get to around 20, but not 25 completions on Monday. Aaron Rodgers Under 24.5 Completions (-105)

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Russell Wilson Over/Under 18 Completions: We just don’t see it in this one for Wilson. The Green Bay defense isn’t as good as its numbers have suggested over the course of the last two weeks, but there is just no way that we see how Wilson is going to have 19 completions in this game. The wide receivers just aren’t there for the rookie to get the ball out to. Remember that Head Coach Pete Carroll has only let Wilson throw the ball a total of 54 times in two games this year, and there is no reason to think that he’ll chuck it more than 30 times in this one. If that’s the case, getting to 19 completions is going to be awfully difficult for a rookie in primetime in this type of a massive spot. Russell Wilson Under 18 Completions (-115)

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Props @ 5Dimes Sportsbook (as of 9/24/12):
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Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -115
No Score in the First 6 Minutes of the Game -115

Packers Score First -135
Seahawks Score First +105

First Score a Touchdown -175
First Score Not a Touchdown +145

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 45.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 45.5 Yards -115

Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 Yards +100
Longest Field Goal of the Game Under 44.5 Yards -130

Shortest Field Goal of the Game Over 25.5 Yards -130
Shortest Field Goal of the Game Under 25.5 Yards +100

Total Field Goals Made Over 3.5 +135
Total Field Goals Made Under 3.5 -165

Total Punts Over 9.5 -130
Total Punts Under 9.5 +100

Total Sacks Over 4.5 -125
Total Sacks Under 4.5 -105

Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown +150
Not a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown -180

Aaron Rodgers Completions Over 24.5 -125
Aaron Rodgers Completions Under 24.5 -105

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Over 295.5 -115
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Under 295.5 -115

Aaron Rodgers Total Touchdown Passes Over 2.5 +145
Aaron Rodgers Total Touchdown Passes Under 2.5 -185

Aaron Rodgers Throws an Interception -160
Aaron Rodgers Doesn’t Throw an Interception +130

Cedric Benson Rushing Yards Over 60.5 -115
Cedric Benson Rushing Yards Under 60.5 -115

Cedric Benson Scores a Touchdown +120
Cedric Benson Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -150

Jordy Nelson Over 5 Receptions -130
Jordy Nelson Under 5 Receptions +100

Jordy Nelson Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -115
Jordy Nelson Under 74.5 Receiving Yards -115

Jordy Nelson Scores a Touchdown +105
Jordy Nelson Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -135

Jermichael Finley Over 4 Receptions -115
Jermichael Finley Under 4 Receptions -115

James Jones Total Receptions Over 2.5 -115
James Jones Total Receptions Under 2.5 -115

Randall Cobb Total Receptions Over 2.5 -115
Randall Cobb Total Receptions Under 2.5 -115

Russell Wilson Completions Over 18 -115
Russell Wilson Completions Under 18 -115

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Over 200.5 -115
Russell Wilson Passing Yards Under 200.5 -115

Russell Wilson Touchdown Passes + INTs Over 2.5 +160
Russell Wilson Touchdown Passes + INTs Under 2.5 -200

Marshawn Lynch Over 92.5 Rushing Yards -115
Marshawn Lynch Under 92.5 Rushing Yards -115

Marshawn Lynch Scores a Touchdown -115
Marshawn Lynch Doesn’t Score a Touchdown -115

Sidney Rice Total Receptions Over 4 -115
Sidney Rice Total Receptions Under 4 -115

Golden Tate Total Receptions Over 3 +100
Golden Tate Total Receptions Under 3 -130

Zach Miller Total Receptions Over 2.5 -125
Zach Miller Total Receptions Under 2.5 -105

NFL Prop Picks: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions 9/27

September 18th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Prop Picks: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions 9/27
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Full Browns @ Ravens NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

Ray Rice RavensThe Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns are set to continue the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 4 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial Thursday Night Football matchup.

Team to Score First: You really never see us playing NFL props like this one, but we really like the idea of playing on the Browns to score first at least 40% of the time in this game. Baltimore really should just come out and dominate, but how on earth can it be expected to do that from the get go just basically 96 hours after taking down the New England Patriots in such dramatic fashion in one of the most emotional games of the year? The Browns have been chomping at the bit to get out and play this game to prove that they can indeed play with the big boys in the AFC North, and they might be throwing the whole book at the Ravens right away to try to slip one past this defense. This just feels like a game in which Cleveland finds a way to get on the scoreboard first, though it probably won’t have a legitimate impact on the game. Cleveland Browns Score First (+175)

Joe Flacco Over/Under 21.5 Completions: This is just a bad line in our eyes. Flacco has been running this no huddle offense, and he has thrown the ball a whopping 81 times over the course of his last two weeks. Now, he gets to play the Browns, who don’t have their best cover corner in the lineup, and that means that he should get to pick on the corners once again. Sure, RB Ray Rice will get his carries, but he’ll also get his receptions, and that means that Flacco is going to be putting the ball in the air quite a bit. We just don’t see how more often than not, he isn’t going to complete at least 22 passes. Remember that Flacco is on a clip right now to complete nearly 400 passes this year. Joe Flacco Over 21.5 Completions (-115)

Trent Richardson Total Rushing Yards Over/Under 57.5: This is a rough one for the rookie out of Arkansas. Richardson is a great back, and he has a whole heck of a lot of potential, but this Baltimore defense is vicious. That being said, asking Richardson to get to just 58 yards shouldn’t be all that much, knowing that he does have one of the best offensive tackles in the world to run behind in Joe Thomas. The Browns are committed to the run come hell or high water on a weekly basis, and that means that Richardson will have to average likely no more than 3.0 yards per carry to be able to get the job done with this prop. That’ll be tough against the Ravens, but we think that he’ll find a way to get the job done more often than not. It’s a precarious play at best, though. Trent Richardson Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Props @ 5Dimes Sportsbook (as of 9/27/12):
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Score in the First 6:30 Minutes of the Game -120
No Score in the First 6:30 Minutes of the Game -110

Browns Score First +175
Ravens Score First -220

First Score a Touchdown -165
First Score Not a Touchdown +135

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over 42.5 Yards -115
Longest Touchdown of the Game Under 42.5 Yards -115

Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 Yards +100
Longest Field Goal of the Game Under 44.5 Yards -130

Shortest Field Goal of the Game Over 25.5 Yards -130
Shortest Field Goal of the Game Under 25.5 Yards +100

Total Sacks Made Over 4.5 -120
Total Sacks Made Under 4.5 -110

Brandon Weeden Total Completions Over 21.5 -115
Brandon Weeden Total Completions Under 21.5 -115

Brandon Weeden Throws a Touchdown First -120
Brandon Weeden Throws an Interception First -110

Trent Richardson Rushing Yards Over 57.5 -115
Trent Richardson Rushing Yards Under 57.5 -115

Joe Flacco Total Completions Over 21.5 -115
Joe Flacco Total Completions Under 21.5 -115

Joe Flacco Total Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 -180
Joe Flacco Total Touchdown Passes Under 1.5 +150

Ray Rice Scores a First Half Touchdown +120
Ray Rice Doesn’t Score a First Half Touchdown -150