Friday night in Indianapolis, the top seed in the Midwest Region, the Louisville Cardinals will take on one of the upstarts of the tournament, the Oregon Ducks. Our March Madness predictions are set to take place here at Bankroll Sports, as we analyze the keys to the game so you can make your Oregon vs. Louisville picks. Join us for the three most pressing factors that are going to help determine which one of these two teams is going to get to the Elite Eight and just one step away from the Final Four in Atlanta.

March Madness: Oregon Ducks vs. Louisville Cardinals
Oregon vs. Louisville Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Oregon vs. Louisville Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 7:15 p.m. ET
March Madness Television Coverage: CBS

Key #1: Dominic Artis has to get healthy
We’re starting to wonder if Artis really is ever going to be healthy this year for the Ducks. He hasn’t truly been a major factor in games, especially down the stretch ever since going out with an ankle injury at the outset of the Pac-12 season. Now, he is going to be in the thick of the fight against one of the most talented backcourts in the country. The Ducks have been fortunate to get good contributions from G Johnathan Loyd over the course of the middle of the Pac-12 campaign, and Loyd played well during the Pac-12 Tournament as well. However, he has only scored a total of 14 points and has a total of nine assists against nine turnovers here in the dance thus far, and that isn’t going to cut it. Either Loyd has to be a whole heck of a lot better, or Artis has to prove that he can be on the court and be productive with the game on the line, or the Ducks are in a lot of trouble.

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Key #2: Gorgui Dieng has to go back to being a dominating star
All of a sudden over the course of these last few games, Dieng has sort of disappeared in the Louisville rotation. He only has a total of 20 points and 10 rebounds in two games here in the NCAA Tournament, and he just isn’t getting the shot opportunities in the paint that he is used to getting. Part of Dieng’s game is getting the ball in the paint and dominating. We know that here in the dance, those opportunities are going to be fewer and farther between, especially with the way that the three-point shots get jacked up on both sides of the court. However, Dieng is still the one man that few can match up with in this entire country. He had a tough draw against Colorado State on Saturday, and he is going to have a rough one as well against F Arsalan Kazemi, who had eight points and 16 boards in the third round against a very tough Saint Louis outfit. However, Head Coach Rick Pitino cannot lose sight of the fact that he has as talented of a big man as there is in the country, and Dieng needs to be a big part of the game plan to win this one.

Key #3: The Ducks have to capitalize on their trips to the line
Just getting to the charity stripe is a tough task when you’re playing a team like Louisville. However, in the third round on Saturday, the Cardinals committed a total of 24 fouls in spite of the fact that the game was largely a blowout, especially in the second half. As a result, Colorado State went to the free throw line 21 times. Oregon has generally had a degree of success at the stripe over the course of the season, knocking down right around 71% of its chances. However, here in the NCAA Tournament, the Ducks are shooting just 64.9% from the foul line. Oregon isn’t going to be able to keep up the torrid pace that it is shooting three-pointers at right now (48.5% for the tourney), but what it can control is the way that it is shooting foul shots. There is no doubt that this is a team that is going to need to put together every point that it can possibly find. Leaving too many points on the board will certainly result in disaster against a team that it is tough enough to score on in the first place.

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The 2013 NIT Bracket was just released here on Selection Sunday, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to be taking a quick look at the teams that are going to be playing in the NIT this year and what they need to do to beat the odds to win the NIT and make it to Madison Square Garden for the NIT Final Four!

We’re going to start over in the Kentucky region, where the Wildcats are actually going to have to go on the road for the opening game of this tournament. The top seed in the tourney is going to have to hit the road to go to Pittsburgh to face Robert Morris, the automatic qualifiers from the Northeast Conference. After taking on the Colonials, either Providence or Charlotte will be on deck in games that really shouldn’t prove to be all that difficult if the Wildcats are going to really play this tournament full out. Arizona State and Baylor are the highlight teams in the bottom of the bracket, but Detroit (arguably the last team that made it to the NIT) and Long Beach State, an automatic qualifier from the Big West are also in the bracket.

The winner of the Kentucky bracket will face the winner of the Southern Miss bracket at Madison Square Garden. Things really don’t setup all that well for the Golden Eagles, knowing that they didn’t beat a single RPI Top 50 team all season long. They don’t have many great RPI teams in this bracket, but Florida State and Louisiana Tech could be ready to pounce in Hattiesburg. BYU seems to be a bit of a paper tiger of a No. 3 seed, but the Cougars were clearly picked here due to the fact that they will fill up the Marriott Center on Tuesday against Washington. The Huskies are a great team that deserved to be in better shape than this for the NIT. The winner has to likely head East to Knoxville, where the Volunteers are going to hope to continue their solid play in the second season.

The opposite side of the 2013 NIT Bracket is going to be insane, as it is chock full of teams that have a ton to prove. The Alabama bracket is going to feature some teams that have to travel quite a long ways to get to each of their games. If the chalk holds up on Tuesday, Alabama will get to host Stanford, which has a tough draw in its own right against Stephen F. Austin. Ohio was probably one of the last teams that made it into the NIT, and it will take on a Denver team that many thought would have little chance to get into the tournament at all, let alone host a game. Maryland and Niagara should make for some exciting basketball as well. The Terrapins really hit their stride at the end of the season, and they have a couple major wins over Duke to their credit as well.

It might be a bit surprising to see Virginia as a No. 1 seed here in the NIT, but that’s bad news for the rest of the teams in its bracket. The Hoos were dominating at home at John Paul Jones Arena this year, and as long as they are over the disappointing of having to play in the NIT instead of the NCAAs, there is a good shot that they can win this tournament. Their first victim is a Norfolk State team that made some history last year when it came out of the No. 15 slot and beat No. 2 Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. Joe’s and St. John’s are going to face off in a regional game that should be a thrilled. Iowa and Indiana State both have to be really disappointed that they are so low on the NIT bracket. The Hawkeyes really could have been a top seed in our eyes, but they were relegated to a No. 3 and will likely only get one game at Carver Hawkeye Arena as a result. UMass is the No. 2 seed that will host the first two games in this region as long as it keeps winning, and it gets Stony Brook in its opening soiree.

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The brackets have just been released for the 2013 NCAA Tournament, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are already tearing through the 68 teams that are going to be in the field and making our March Madness predictions. Join us right now for our 2013 March Madness advice, as well as our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions for the teams that could be cutting down the nets on the road to the Final Four in Atlanta.

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2013 Midwest Bracket Predictions
Louisville won the Big East Tournament this year, and it predictably was the overall No. 1 seed in the dance. Of all of the No. 1s, there really doesn’t seem to be a much easier road to get to the Sweet 16, and perhaps even the Elite Eight as the one that the Hoosiers have. Oklahoma State is a team that likes to run and gun, but it really is the only team that is going to be able to contend as we see it if it gets that far. Saint Louis is a team that is playing with a heavy heart in memory of its lost coach, Rick Majerus.

At the bottom of this bracket, there really isn’t a heck of a lot to see either in our eyes. Duke is a dangerous team that could ultimately win this bracket, and we think that it is going to be a de facto No. 1 seed through the Elite Eight. Actually, the most dangerous team that we see out of this bracket as a potential sleeper is Saint Mary’s, a team that is going to have to go through Dayton to make it to the main bracket. Michigan State is a team that is always prepared to make a huge move in the dance, as Head Coach Tom Izzo’s teams never go down quietly. Of course, he has a tough bracket to try to navigate through this year, and it starts right away with what could be an upset-minded Valpo side.

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2013 West Bracket Predictions
The biggest question this year in the West Region is whether Gonzaga really, truly belonged as a top seed. In fact, you could ask the question as to whether Ohio State is a legitimate No. 2, or if New Mexico is a legitmate No. 3 as well. What this is setting up for could be a bracket chock full of upsets.

We aren’t particularly worried about the play-in game winners sitting in that No. 13 line that are going to have to face Kansas State playing a de facto home game in Kansas City. However, Ole Miss is a team that has caught some fire of late, and it might be able to make some real havoc in that No. 12 slot, especially against a Wisconsin team that has a habit of falling short in the dance.

The bottom of this bracket contains a ton of dangerous double digit seeds. Iona is one of the highest flying teams in America, and it is going to turn on the jets for the full 40 minutes no matter what Ohio State tries to do to stop it. Iowa State, Harvard, and Belmont are all seeds down here that can score a ton of points and stroke it from long range. The defensive minded teams of Ohio State and Notre Dame could be in some trouble as a result. Keep a close eye on Arizona as well if it can survive that first game against Belmont, as the Wildcats really underachieved all season long. They have the talent to really go far in this tournament.

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2013 East Bracket Predictions
The road to the Final Four in the East Region goes through Washington DC, and for that reason, we have to think that Indiana is going to be at a huge advantage. Miami, the No. 2 seed in this bracket, is going to have some real issues in terms of getting some support from the crowd, knowing that it is a long ways away from both Austin, where it is going to be playing its first two games of the dance, and then at the Verizon Center. That’s why things could be opened up quite a bit in the middle of this bracket. There aren’t a lot of flashy teams in this bunch, but Marquette, Butler, Syracuse, and UNLV are teams that just continue to find ways to win on a regular basis.

However, if you look at the road to the Final Four, there really might not be a path from top to bottom that is easier than that of the Hoosiers. Indiana draws a play in game winner that won’t challenge it, and then it gets either an underachieving NC State team or Temple. Playing against Syracuse could be tough in the Sweet 16, but if that’s the toughest potential game in the bracket for what used to be the No. 1 rated team in America, the Hoosiers have it good.

2013 South Bracket Predictions
The South is bracket that has a lot of teams that can score a heck of a lot of points in it. The highest scoring team in the bunch is actually Northwestern State, the No. 14 seed, who comes into this tourney as the top team in the nation from a scoring perspective. Other teams like North Carolina, VCU, and UCLA love to run and gun in the South Region as well.

However, the top two teams in this draw are both defensive minded teams, though. As long as the pace of the big games stays slow, Kansas and Georgetown are the clubs that should ultimately make it to the Elite Eight when push comes to shove. The Jayhawks don’t really have to go all that far away from home when they head to Dallas for the Sweet 16, assuming that they get there. However, when they do, they could be greeted by either a solid Michigan team, or a VCU outfit that could ultimately be the most dangerous team in the dance. The Rams are going to press for the full 40 minutes, and they have a really tough defense to try to get ready for in short order.

Of all of the brackets, the South is clearly the most competitive of them all.

NCAA Tournament sleeper teams are all over the place this year, and there are a number of teams that are going to be in the field that are going to be teams that can bust your bracket. Check out the Top 10 teams that can do some damage, and be sure to check back after the brackets are released to see who is on Upset Alert for the NCAA Tournament.

#10: Belmont Bruins – Always a terror, Belmont is one of these teams that could always blow up your bracket. The Bruins play fast basketball, and they average 77.2 points per game. G Ian Clark has had himself a great career, and this isn’t nearly his first rodeo in the NCAA Tournament. He’s averaging 18.1 points per game this year, and he has a great supporting cast around him. Give Belmont the right draw, and the OVC reps might ultimately be dancing into the second week of the tourney.

#9: Davidson Wildcats – When you’re hot, you’re hot. The Wildcats have won 17 games in a row, and they feature one of the most efficient offenses in the entire tournament. Davidson is also the only team in the land that hits at least 80% of its free throws, something that really is important at this level when the pressure is on. The Wildcats have a great pedigree, and they are going to have a real chance of making a deep run here in the dance, a la when they had G Stephen Curry knocking down shots from all over the place in the Elite 8.

#8: Valparaiso Crusaders – Wake up the echos of Bryce Drew! Remember when the Crusaders pulled off the great upset in the NCAA Tournament against Ole Miss back in the day? This Valpo team could be just as dangerous. The Crusaders ranked sixth in the land in shooting percentage this year at 48.9%, and that came against a solid schedule that included a very tough Horizon League. This is another one of these teams that can rotate players in and out at will, and it plays some hardnosed defense as well. Ryan Broekhoff is a 6’7″ big man that can cause all sorts of matchup problems, especially knowing that he averages knocking down almost three triples per game.

#7: Harvard Crimson – Ever since Cornell went on its great run a few years ago, we have always had our eyes on these Ivy League teams as clubs that could make some noise. Harvard shoots over 40 percent from beyond the arc, and in a tournament where the three-ball is the great equalizer, it’s no wonder why the Crimson are expected to make some noise. G Wesley Saunders knocked down a whopping 52.6%(!!!) of his three-point attempts this year, and when he and his mates get going, look out! Harvard is going to put someone on upset alert for sure.

#6: LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds – LIU Brooklyn didn’t have as great of a season this year as it did a campaign ago, but it still won the NEC Tournament and will dance for the third straight season. The Blackbirds still fly up and down the court like they always have, and with the right matchup, they could prove to be problematic. F Jamal Olasewere is a much more experienced player than he was a few years ago when Long Island cracked into the dance the first time and tried its best to run with North Carolina. Now, this bunch of chiseled vets could ultimately prove to give a high seed some real problems.

#5: Northwestern State Demons – The Demons feature the top scoring offense in America at 81.0 points per game, and they are able to force the tempo against literally anyone that they play. This is a deep, deep team that will rotate 10 players, all of which average at least 15 minutes per game on the court. Are there any real stars? Not necessarily. However, just like VCU (more on the Rams in a second), Northwestern State is going to push you for the full 40 minutes and go full bore in the process. Though this isn’t a team that could make a huge run, there is no doubt that no one is going to want to see this club on its line on Selection Sunday.

#4: South Dakota State Jackrabbits – G Nate Wolters was a man that we highlighted last year for the Jackrabbits, and he is the man that we are going to keep a close eye on once again. The guard averaged 22.7 points per game this year, and he had a great Summit League Tournament. The Jacks now have some experience under their belts having been to the dance last year, and they are going to be ready to take it to an unsuspecting high seed this coming week as well. South Dakota State shoots the daylights out of the basketball, and it could be primed for an upset.

#3: Iona Gaels – The Metro Atlantic champs are back in the NCAA Tournament once again, but this year, they have the MAAC’s automatic bid that they are bringing with them instead of having to play in the First Four in Dayton against BYU. This was obviously a good enough team to get into the field as an at large last year, and most of the pieces are back from that puzzle. Why do we think Iona is a dangerous squad? Not only did the Gaels average 80.7 points per game this year, but they were beaten 11 times by five points or fewer this season. The only team to really whip Iona was a La Salle team that is going to likely be in the field of 68 as an at large.

#2: Colorado State Rams – Last year, we warned to keep a close eye on Colorado State, only to see it bow out in the first round in a bad matchup against Murray State. The Rams are back with a very similar looking team, and they once again can really dominate with their bigs. This is a team that is averaging outrebounding teams by almost 15 boards per night. Colorado State doesn’t have the guards to make a huge run in the dance, but if the bracket falls right for it and a bunch of teams that don’t have remarkable guard play turn up on the line with it, look out! The Mountain West really can play this year.

#1: VCU Rams – HAVOC is back! The Rams are going to be an underrated team in the dance this year, and if they can get the right draw against a team that can’t handle the pressure of playing against the full court press for the full 40 minutes, they’ll have a shot at the Final Four once again. Head Coach Shaka Smart knows that he has a solid team this season once again, and VCU is averaging nearly a dozen steals per game. The difference between this year’s team and the one that made it to the Final Four a few years ago? These Rams can shoot the three. Those did in the dance, but didn’t in the regular season. Watch out for sure. HAVOC is coming to get you!

The NCAA Tournament Bracket has been set, and the arguments are already beginning for the teams that were NCAA Tournament snubs. Check out our list of 2013 March Madness snubs!

Let’s get one thing straight before we begin: There wasn’t a team that didn’t have itself to blame for not getting into the NCAA Tournament. Each of these teams had games that they could have won that could have put them on the right side of the bubble. This year, not only were there 37 at large bids to go get, but one of those teams that would have been in the field, the Connecticut Huskies were ineligible. If you didn’t get in, you didn’t deserve to get in. That being said, some of these teams arguably put together better resumes than the ones that did get a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee Volunteers (20-12) – Tennessee finished with an RPI of 59 and an SOS of 58, numbers which probably were okay, but not necessarily good enough to dance. What gets us with the Volunteers is that they really did play well down the stretch of the season. They beat Florida and they beat Kentucky, but in the end, they were beaten in a couple games that they really couldn’t afford to lose. The Alabama loss in the SEC Tournament wasn’t the damning one. The one that really got the Volunteers was the defeat at the hands of UGA.

Kentucky Wildcats (21-11) – If the Wildcats had gotten into the NCAA Tournament, we would have been calling for a conspiracy theory. Kentucky won the National Championship last year, but this team just isn’t anywhere near last year’s club. Since F Nerlens Noel went down, the Cats are just 4-5 to show for their work, and in there includes four road losses, and the most damning defeat in the SEC Tournament against Vanderbilt. With an RPI of 57 and an SOS of 69, we know that Kentucky just didn’t have the numbers to dance.

Alabama Crimson Tide (21-12) – Last year, Alabama didn’t get into the NCAA Tournament in spite of the fact that it won a ton of games in the SEC. This year, the story is basically the same. The Tide aren’t dancing because they flat out didn’t beat anybody. The only two NCAA Tournament teams that Alabama beat this year were South Dakota State and Villanova, and those wins came back in November. There’s no one for the Tide to blame but themselves for that type of scheduling, especially here with an SEC conference slate.

Maryland Terrapins (22-12) – There were so many times this year when the Terrapins looked like they were going to be remarkable. They beat Duke twice and they won 13 games in a row in the regular season once upon a time. However, there were too many losses to teams like Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Florida State as well. Maryland is a very talented team, and it is going to play well in the NIT. It just wasn’t meant to be in the NCAA Tournament, though.

Virginia Cavaliers (21-11) – What could have been for the Hoos… This team scheduled just so badly… So, so badly outside of the ACC this year. Even then, beating NC State in the ACC Tournament would have likely been the victory that would have put the team in the fold. However, it just wasn’t meant to be. At John Paul Jones Arena, this was a remarkable team. Away from it though, UVA wasn’t anything special. Save for beating Wisconsin, the win that kept on giving, there wasn’t a single notable road win in the mix.

The NIT schedule is only a week away from being released, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are taking another look at our NIT Bracketology picks for how we think that the field of 32 could look. We’ll be keeping this updated regularly, and now that we are in the week of the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be updating with every passing result that could change the way that the 2013 NIT Tournament could look.

Before we begin, here’s how the NIT works. There are 32 teams that make it into the field, and before there are any other teams that are put into place, any team that won its conference regular season crown but didn’t make it into the NCAA Tournament gets an automatic spot.

List of Teams With Automatic Bids To NIT
Stony Brook Seawolves (America East)
Mercer Bears (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (Big South)
Long Beach State 49ers (Big West)
Northeastern Huskies (Colonial)
Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC)
Niagara Purple Eagles (Metro Atlantic)
Robert Morris Colonials (Northeast)
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (WAC)

*Note: Middle Tennessee State also has a guaranteed spot in the NIT if it doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament, though for now, we have the Blue Raiders in the field

There are going to be 22 at large bids to the NIT that are up for grabs after 10 top seeds fell in their conference tournaments over the course of the last two weeks. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders would be automatic qualifiers if they dropped into the NIT as well, but they would clearly fit the bill as an NIT team regardless of their conference affiliation.

NIT No. 1 Seeds: Kentucky Wildcats, Virginia Cavaliers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Tennessee Volunteers
NIT No. 2 Seeds: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, Maryland Terrapins, Alabama Crimson Tide, Stanford Cardinal
NIT No. 3 Seeds: Baylor Bears, Providence Friars, Xavier Musketeers, Florida State Seminoles
NIT No. 4 Seeds: Washington Huskies, Arizona State Sun Devils, Arkansas Razorbacks, Massachusetts Minutemen
NIT No. 5 Seeds: Indiana State Sycamores, Charlotte 49ers, BYU Cougars, Air Force Falcons
NIT No. 6 Seeds: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, St. John’s Red Storm, St. Joseph’s Hawks, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
NIT No. 7 Seeds: Robert Morris Colonials, Stony Brook Seawolves, Niagara Purple Eagles, Long Beach State 49ers
NIT No. 8 Seeds: Mercer Bears, Northeastern Huskies, Norfolk State Spartans, Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Atlantic 10
NIT Locks: Xavier Musketeers, Charlotte 49ers, Massachusetts Minutemen
NIT Bubble: St. Joseph’s Hawks, Richmond Spiders
There is now absolutely no doubt in our minds that Xavier, Charlotte, and UMass are going to be in the NIT. The Minutemen had to think they could get the job done, but losing to VCU on Saturday was the end of their chances of dancing. Beyond that though, the Hawks and the Spiders are going to be hoping not to see any more upsets in conference tournaments. Many think that the Hawks are okay, but Richmond really is practically dead at this point. All of those technical fouls proved to be killers, not only for any hopes of advancing in the A-10 Tournament, but for making it into the NIT as well.

ACC
NIT Locks: Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Cavaliers, Florida State Seminoles
NIT Bubble: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Florida State got into the NIT for sure when it held on to beat Clemson. It didn’t help its case when it was beaten by North Carolina badly in the second half on Friday, but we still don’t see any way that the garnet and gold aren’t in the NIT. Georgia Tech is still hanging on, but the chances are looking grim at best. The Jackets really needed the NIT bubble to stay large, but it keeps getting tighter and tighter, and they’re probably amongst the ones getting squeezed out. Maryland did the job that it needed to do on Friday by beating Duke, but it couldn’t get the job done by beating North Carolina. The Terrapins aren’t quite going to be good enough to dance, but they’ll be a home team in the first at least two rounds in the NIT.

Big 12
NIT Locks: Baylor Bears
NIT Bubble: None
Baylor has probably lost out on its chances to get into the NCAA Tournament after losing to Oklahoma State on Thursday. That certainly leaves the Bears in the NIT. As far as Texas is concerned, it was beaten badly by Kansas State and really can’t be considered for the NIT any longer.

Big East
NIT Locks: Providence Friars
NIT Bubble: St. John’s Red Storm
We’ll start this discussion by saying that Big East teams that have a good enough record to get into the NIT usually do. That means that St. John’s really should have nothing to worry about in spite of the fact that we have it as one of the last few at large teams getting in. The Johnnies gave the NIT Selection Committee a reason to not put them in the NIT by playing pitiful basketball down the stretch. Put them in a different conference, and we would have a different discussion. But in the Big East, especially for the team that plays its home games at the home of the Final Four, Madison Square Garden? It’s just not likely to see St. John’s left off the line. Providence has done enough, plain and simple.

Big Sky
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Weber State Wildcats
The Wildcats finished out the season in the most predictable way possible. They only suffered six defeats on the campaign, but that sixth loss came to Montana in crushing fashion on the road. Many think that this is an NIT team. We aren’t all that sure. Weber State is going to have to convince the NIT Selection Committee that it has a better resume than perhaps an Atlantic 10 team with not quite the same type of resume, and we just don’t know if that truly could be the case. It seems like the Wildcats are off to the CBI or the CIT if they want to continue playing in the second season.

Big 10
NIT Locks: Iowa Hawkeyes
NIT Bubble: None
We feel really bad for Head Coach Fran McCaffery and the gang. The Hawkeyes were one of the best 37 at large teams in the nation as we saw it this year, but they scheduled so poorly in the non-conference season that there was no way to justify putting them in the dance. They’ll be here in the NIT and get at least two, if not three home games as long as they keep winning as their reward for a solid season, though. Not a terrible consolation prize for a team that is still a step or two shy of competing with the big boys in the Big Ten.

Conference USA
NIT Locks: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
NIT Bubble: None
The Golden Eagles did everything that they could to get into the bracket, but they just weren’t able to get the job done when push came to shove. They haven’t beaten any of the Top 50 RPI teams this year, and we would be shocked if they get the nod into the dance as a result. Southern Miss will earn some home games here in the NIT though, and it will have to play every bit as well as it did for the first 50 minutes against the Tigers on Saturday to continue to advance against some of the next best teams in the game.

Horizon League
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Detroit Titans
Detroit is still in the discussion, but that discussion is really starting to get bleaker and bleaker. The Titans would have probably been on the No. 7 line or so had the field stayed at 32, but alas, now that that number is down to 22 with no more games to help out the resume, it’s going to be virtually impossible to get into the NIT.

MAC
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Ohio Bobcats
Poor Ohio. The team was favored to take down the MAC crown, and it really had to figure that it had Akron dead to rights coming into Saturday’s MAC Championship Game. However, it was Akron that really stepped up to the plate to claim the league title, and in the end, Ohio is right there on the NIT cut line as we see it. This is another one of these teams like Weber State that has a pretty good record, but not quite the same type of resume as a team like BYU or St. Joe’s. The Bobcats seem to be headed to the CBI or the CIT this season.

Missouri Valley Conference
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Indiana State Sycamores, Northern Iowa Panthers
Indiana State and Northern Iowa are both vexing cases to get into the NIT. The Sycamores had to think that they were going to contend for a spot in the NCAA Tournament until getting beaten prematurely in the Missouri Valley Tournament. Now, some think that they are going to miss out on the NIT as well. We tend to think otherwise. The Sycamores should be in this field. The window is closing quickly on Northern Iowa, and there just don’t seem to be enough bids left to this tourney to put the Panthers in.

Mountain West
NIT Locks: Air Force Falcons
NIT Bubble: None
Air Force dodged a few bullets, just like so many of the other teams that were hoping to get into the NIT on Saturday. Only one of the four potential bids to the NIT were stolen, and as a result, there are still enough bids that are left to think that the Falcons are a lock to be in the nation’s secondary postseason tournament. The Mountain West was too good this year to ignore, and we have to think that a team that beat some of the best teams in the conference would be deserving a slot in at least the NIT.

Ohio Valley
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Murray State Racers
Murray State is still praying that it gets the call from the NIT Selection Committee on Selection Sunday, but it really isn’t looking good at this point. That’s too bad for Murray State fans, as this team came so close to winning the Ohio Valley, and now, it probably won’t get a chance to see its team play again this year unless there is a change of heart to go to the CBI (or perhaps the CIT).

Pac-12
NIT Locks: Stanford Cardinal, Washington Huskies, Arizona State Sun Devils
NIT Bubble: None
This is a cut and dry conference at this point. Some think that U-Dub isn’t going to get into the NIT, but after last year when the team made a great run to the Final Four at MSG, we just can’t see it happening. The Huskies played well down the stretch, they’re 18-15, they have a respectable RPI, and they only lost in overtime to Oregon in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. This is a good enough team to play in the second season.

SEC
NIT Locks: Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Kentucky Wildcats
NIT Bubble: LSU Tigers
It really seems as though the SEC is going to have to go through the pain of having at least four teams in the NIT this year. Tennessee and Arkansas both played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament, and Kentucky probably ultimately did so as well. The Rebels were in the NIT as we saw it at the start of the day, but after they knocked off Vanderbilt on Saturday, they are in the dance. The team dropping in is Kentucky. The Wildcats were crushed by Vandy in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, and they really don’t deserve to get into the field of 68 as a result. On the other side of the NIT bubble, LSU remains at least in consideration. Vandy fell off of the NIT line after getting beaten by Alabama, but the CBI could be in the cards for the Commodores as well after such a nice run into the SEC semifinals.

West Coast Conference
NIT Locks: BYU Cougars
NIT Bubble: None
We have seen enough other projections for the NIT to know that BYU is probably safe and sound. Though we think based upon merit, there is no way that the Cougs should be safe, nor should they be hosting a game, but this is a tournament that is all about revenue. There will at least have to be a possibility that the Cougars can pack the Marriott Center at least one more time this year. Don’t be shocked if BYU ends up on the No. 4 line to get that home game even though we’re not even 100% sure that it deserves to be in the NIT field after losing to San Diego in the WCC Tournament.

WAC
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Denver Pioneers, Utah State Aggies
Gulp. The WAC is going to have its one team in the NIT for sure… Louisiana Tech is going to fall into the NIT as an automatic qualifier. But what happened to Denver and Utah State? Both lost to subpar teams in the WAC Tournament, and now, they’re at the mercy of the NIT Selection Committee. It’s not looking good for either one with only 22 slots up for grabs right now.

Note: Italic represents projected conference winner, automatic bid. Bold represents teams that have already clinched NCAA Tournament bids

NCAA Tournament Bracketology Updated As Of Games Completed On 3/17/13 3:00 PM

1 Seeds – Gonzaga Bulldogs, Louisville Cardinals, Indiana Hoosiers, Kansas Jayhawks
We think that Gonzaga, Indiana, and Louisville have all done enough to ensure the fact that they are going to be on the top line come Selection Sunday at this point. The Hoosiers might have put themselves in a bit of peril after losing to the Badgers, but there really should be no doubt about IU’s safety on the top line. The Dookies were here on the top line for quite some time, but we think that winning the Big XII title was enough to get the Jayhawks here on the top line instead. It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Duke here come Selection Sunday, but KU is the right choice that the Selection Committee should be making. Louisville won the Big East Tournament, and the argument could be made that they are the best team in the country once again. Though we think that Gonzaga should be the No. 1 overall seed in the dance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cards get that nod instead.

2 Seeds – Miami Hurricanes, Duke Blue Devils, Ohio State Buckeyes, Florida Gators
We really think that the No. 2 line is pretty much cut and dry at this point. The Hurricanes won the ACC title by knocking off North Carolina, but that isn’t going to be enough to put them all the way up on the No. 1 line. Florida meanwhile, was beaten at the death in shocking fashion by Ole Miss, and that is going to keep the orange and blue on the No. 2 line as well. No one was really able to capitalize to take its No. 2 seed. Ohio State is going to be on the No. 2 line whether it wins the Big Ten title or not.

3 Seeds – New Mexico Lobos, Georgetown Hoyas, Michigan State Spartans, Syracuse Orange
The Lobos captured the Mountain West title, and the way that things are shaking out, they could be in for a great bracket when things are released on Sunday. They’ll be playing at home in the West Bracket and will be the only West Coast based team at the top of that bracket. Georgetown has fallen down after not playing for a couple of days after bowing out of the Big East Tournament in the quarters. Syracuse has made it to the No. 3 line by getting to the Big East Tournament Final. They couldn’t lock down the automatic bid to the dance though, as Louisville proved to be just too strong. Michigan State couldn’t get to the Big Ten title game, but the Spartans have done enough in our eyes to stay on the No. 3 line.

Note: Syracuse would move down to a No. 4 seed if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game

4 Seeds – Michigan Wolverines, Kansas State Wildcats, Wisconsin Badgers, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Some moving and some shaking here on the No. 4 line as we go into the second to last day of the regular season. Michigan’s loss to Wisconsin really hurts any case that the Wolverines have of being in the Top 3 lines, and we think that there is nowhere to go but down from here for Big Blue. Okie State’s loss to Kansas State might ultimately see it down a line, but not necessarily. The Wildcats didn’t win the Big XII, but they shouldn’t be punished for it. Losing to Kansas, even if it was for the third time this year, isn’t the end of the world. Wisconsin’s win over Indiana was a huge step in the right direction for the Badgers, as they are most certainly going to be in the top four lines in the NCAA Tournament.

Note: Wisconsin would move up to a No. 3 seed if it wins the Big Ten Championship Game

5 Seeds – UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Marquette Golden Eagles, Saint Louis Billikens
Notre Dame bowed out of the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, but there is nothing to worry about for Head Coach Mike Bray’s team. The Fighting Irish have earned a Top 5 slot in the dance. The Runnin’ Rebels didn’t really do anything wrong to fall down to the No. 5 line, but losing in the MWC title game kept them from moving back up to the Top 4 lines. After winning the A-10 title winning a combined five games this year against VCU and Butler, there is no reason for the Billikens to not be at least on the No. 5 line, if not even a tad higher than this.

6 Seeds – Arizona Wildcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Memphis Tigers, Creighton Blue Jays
Arizona lost a spot on our line when Saint Louis won the Atlantic 10 title on Sunday. It took two overtimes, but Memphis was able to close out Southern Miss in Tulsa on Saturday morning. The Tigers aren’t moving up any, but they aren’t moving down any either. Pittsburgh is the fourth team on this line, as it lost out on its chance to get any higher on the bracket when it was beaten early at Madison Square Garden.

7 Seeds – Oregon Ducks, North Carolina Tar Heels, UCLA Bruins, NC State Wolfpack
The No. 7 line seems to be just about complete as we see it. The Tar Heels really weren’t hurt by the fact that they were beaten by Miami on the final day of the regular season, as the good that they did by getting to the ACC Tournament Final did more to help than the loss to “The U” hurt. Oregon won the Pac-12 Tournament, and we think that this is about as high as it could ultimately go. Meanwhile, the loss to UCLA killed the hopes that the Bruins had of moving up to the No. 6 line. NC State’s ACC Tournament didn’t turn out to be all that bad. The win over Virginia was nice, and the loss to the Hurricanes was expected.

8 Seeds – VCU Rams, Butler Bulldogs, Colorado State Rams, Illinois Fighting Illini
VCU was a winner on Friday and Saturday, but it was beaten on Sunday in the Atlantic 10 Final. HAVOC might be on this dreaded 8 line, and if that’s the case, there is going to be a bitter No. 1 seed somewhere that has to know that it could be in for a real fight. Colorado State was beaten in the MWC Semifinals by UNLV, hardly a disqualifying loss. Illinois was beaten by Indiana, but because it suffered a better beating than some of these teams did below it, we actually have the Illini moving up as a result of their defeat. Butler falls down to the No. 8 line on Saturday after losing for the third time this year to Saint Louis.

9 Seeds – Missouri Tigers, San Diego State Aztecs, Wichita State Shockers, Colorado Buffaloes
Not a heck of a lot to report here on the No. 9 line. Missouri and San Diego State both lost opportunities to move up when they were beaten on Friday night. Wichita State is still holding firm as a No. 9 on our line, though others have the Shockers a lot lower than we do. Colorado is finished in the Pac-12 Tournament and will likely be sitting right around here as a result.

10 Seeds – Villanova Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones, St. Mary’s Gaels, Cincinnati Bearcats
No one on the No. 10 line really has done all that much over the course of the last few days. Villanova and Iowa State both lasted just two rounds in their conference tournament before ultimately crashing out. Cincinnati is okay in spite of the fact that it really dropped down the stretch. St. Mary’s should be okay as well, knowing that it made it to the WCC Final. Some will think that the lack of RPI Top 50 victories will hurt the Gaels, but the rest of the bubble teams really are in terrible shape.

11 Seeds – Temple Owls, Oklahoma Sooners, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Ole Miss Rebels
Temple was beaten by UMass in a loss that could ultimately send it to Dayton. We think that the Owls will be okay. Oklahoma and Minnesota are teams that should still be sweating just a bit about the prospects of having to go to Dayton, but both of these teams are comfortably in the field at this point. Ole Miss has won the SEC Tournament, and as a result, it can’t play in the First Four in Dayton. The quality victory was good enough to move the Rebs up all the way to the No. 11 line as we see it though, and that would have been good enough to avoid the First Four anyway.

12 Seeds – California Golden Bears, La Salle Explorers, Belmont Bruins, Davidson Wildcats, Valparaiso Crusaders
There is pretty much a consensus at this point that La Salle’s loss to Butler really puts the Explorers in a lot of trouble. Many still have them in the field, and we’re no exception for that, but the A-10 reps are by no means totally safe. California is the big loser as we see it from Ole Miss winning the SEC title. Instead of staying on the main bracket and getting into the second round without having to play, the boys from Berkeley are going to have to take the long trip to Dayton for the First Four. Belmont has been firmly on the No. 12 line as the OVC champs. Because of all of the bubble chaos, Davidson is moving up a line after winning the SoCon. This will be a No. 12 seed not to mess with for sure. We move Valpo up to the No. 12 line as the Horizon League champs, and there are going to be some No. 5 seeds that hope they don’t see the Crusaders in their bracket.

13 Seeds – Boise State Broncos, Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, Akron Zips, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Northwestern State Demons
South Dakota State remain locked into the No. 13 line right now after winning the Summit League crown. Akron won the MAC in spite of the fact that it was brutalized at the end of the regular season with G Alex Abreu getting suspended after getting picked up for drug trafficking. Northwestern State stole the bid from the Southland Conference from the favored Stephen F. Austin team, and now, the Demons are dancing. Notice that we dropped the last two teams in the field down to the No. 13 line? The Broncos and the Blue Raiders seem to be the perfect two teams to match up here in Dayton for the First Four. Both were inadequate in their respective conference tournaments. They’re going to both be sweating it out for the next few hours until the brackets are released, but we have to think that both are going to be on the line. We think that both resumes are significantly better than those of the teams from the ACC or the SEC that are also fighting for spots in the dance.

14 Seeds – Bucknell Bison, New Mexico State Aggies, Montana Grizzlies, Harvard Crimson
Montana had to hold off a tremendous Weber State team in the Big Sky final to get into the NCAA Tournament, but in the end, the hosts for the championship game were able to get the job done and clinch a bid on their home court. Bucknell and Harvard have been automatic entries into the dance for quite some time at this point. New Mexico State wrapped up the bid to the dance out of the WAC after a crazy conference tournament that saw all of the best teams, save for the Aggies, bow out prematurely.

15 Seeds – Iona Gaels, Albany Great Danes, LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
With the fall of another prospective 15 seed, we’ve moved Western Kentucky out of the Sun Belt off of the bottom line. LIU Brooklyn and Iona are both awfully fun teams to watch, and they have a ton of NCAA Tournament experience. No one is going to want to see these two teams on their schedule in the first round of the dance. The Great Danes are in the dance after going on the road and beating the Catamounts on Saturday, and they are going to be in a tough spot as either a 15 or a 16 in the dance.

16 Seeds – Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, James Madison Dukes, Pacific Tigers, Southern Jaguars, North Carolina A&T Aggies, Liberty Flames
We’re bumping some teams all around in the No. 16 line after another relatively wild day in conference tournament play. Long Beach State was expected to win the Big West this year, but after a wild set of semifinals, it was Pacific that ended up beating UC Irvine for the right to dance. We’re not all that sure that it’ll be good enough to keep the Tigers from going to Dayton, but at least they’re on their way to the NCAA Tournament Liberty, North Carolina A&T, and Southern are all going to be headed to Dayton for sure. The question is which ones of these other teams in the bottom two lines will be joining these three.

Bubbles Busted – Tennessee Volunteers, Virginia Cavaliers, Maryland Terrapins, Kentucky Wildcats, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

And what’s left are just a few teams, and we’re not even so sure that Tennessee or Virginia really has a way to get into the field. The Cavaliers are probably in slightly better shape right now, but both teams need a ton of help, and they have no one to blame but themselves. The Vols lost to Alabama. The Cavvies lost to NC State. Neither team did enough in non-conference play. See you both in the NIT.

2:30 PM Update: Southern Miss really put forth a great effort against Memphis on Saturday, but the loss, even though it came in two overtimes, really wasn’t good enough to get the job done. We now know that the Golden Eagles should be in the NIT, though they are going to likely have the highest RPI amongst teams that aren’t going to get into the NCAA Tournament. No Top 50 RPI wins will be the killer for this squad.

4:00 PM Update: Alabama falls off of the bubble line on Saturday after getting beaten by Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals. It’s off to the NIT for the Crimson Tide for sure.

5:30 PM Update: Definitely a mixed bag of results here for bubble teams. Ole Miss was able to beat Vanderbilt, which puts it in the NCAA Tournament for the time being, and we think that that moves Kentucky out of the dance. The Wildcats do have the name recognition to get into the field of 68, but geez… Their resume really isn’t all that great, and they have some terrible losses. Maryland, playing at the same time, couldn’t quite get the job done against North Carolina in spite of the fact that it pushed the Tar Heels to the brink in the ACC Semifinals.

6:15 PM Update: Maryland is probably finished at this point. The team had a nice run through the ACC Tournament, beat the Blue Devils but losing to the Tar Heels on Saturday. Is it enough to keep the team in the field? Unfortunately for the Terps, two wins over the Dookies just isn’t enough to get into the NCAA Tournament.

9:15 PM Update: We feel as though the at large bids are all said and done with at this point, and we would be shocked if the 68 that we have in the field aren’t the 68 that are playing starting on Tuesday. Kentucky and Southern Miss are probably the first two teams left out of the field, followed by Virginia and Tennessee. We really don’t feel as though there is any argument to put these last teams out in the field at this point.