Ticket City Bowl Picks: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern Analysis

December 31st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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Every single year, the Northwestern Wildcats seem to figure out how to play a few games every year that just make you go “Wow!” College football betting fans hope that one of those games is on New Year’s Day at the Ticket City Bowl. The Texas Tech Red Raiders will basically be playing on their home turf, as this game is played right up the road at the Cotton Bowl. The three keys to this game should help you make your Ticket City Bowl picks to start your New Year’s Day off right!

Key #1: Evan Watkins needs to be a very unexpected hero
When QB Dan Persa went down with an Achilles injury, the argument really could have been made that the season went down the drain with it. This was a Northwestern team that could have played in a significantly better bowl game this year if not for the fact that it really just fell apart with two blowout defeats down the stretch. Watkins was absolutely nowhere near the quarterback that Persa was either in the air or on the ground. Persa threw for 15 TDs and rushed for nine more, completing 73.5 percent of his passes and averaging over 50 yards per game on the ground. Watkins only has 48 total rushing yards, is completing just 53.1 percent of his passes, and has only one score against four picks. The good news is that there has been plenty of time to prepare for this game. This is also a Texas Tech defense that can really be had, especially against the pass. The Red Raiders averaged 306.1 yards per game through the air, ranking second to last in the nation in the regular season.

Ticket City Bowl Odds at JustBet
Texas Tech Red Raiders -9.5
Northwestern Wildcats +9.5
Over/Under 60.5
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Key #2: Both of these teams need to establish a running game
Did you ever think the day would arrive that Texas Tech would be the dominant running team in a game? The days of the Air Raid are said and done with, but this is still a high flying Texas Tech offense. The Red Raiders do have two great backs though, in RB Eric Stephens and RB Baron Batch. Batch was hoping to become the first Texas Tech runner to reach the 1,000 yard barrier since before Mike Leach was in charge of this offense, but he fell a couple hundred yards short. These two did combine for over 1,400 yards and ten TDs on the campaign. For Northwestern, this could be a very tricky situation. The team did run for 151.7 yards per game this year, which ranked a reasonable No. 68 in the country. However, if you take Persa out of the equation, you’re losing 519 yards and nine TDs on the ground. The team’s third leading rusher, RB Arby Fields has transferred, while both No. 1 runner, RB Mike Trumpy, and fourth leading rusher, RB Jacob Schmidt are injured and are listed as questionable. The Red Raiders at least have the ability to win this game without a running attack because of their nature, but Northwestern doesn’t stand a chance with Watkins under center. Still, whichever team gets something going on the ground is probably the one winning this duel.

Key #3: The Cats need to put a body on Lyle Leong
WR Lyle Leong is essentially the second coming of WR Michael Crabtree in this Texas Tech offense. The senior did just about everything this year for the Red Raiders, and he is quite often the target deployed right near the goal line in virtually every instance. He only had 64 catches this year, which seems like a pedestrian number, but a whopping 17 of those passes went for TDs. The Cats really had no luck playing defense for the mass majority of the season, and until RB Mikel LeShoure went absolutely bananas against this team on the ground, the pass defense was what really struggled. Allowing 230.5 yards per game through the air in a Big Ten conference that focuses more on the rush than on the pass just isn’t all that good, and if Leong can get loose and continue to find the end zone in this game, the Ticket City Bowl odds are certainly going to be stacked against them.


Chick-Fil-A Bowl Picks: South Carolina vs. Florida State Analysis

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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The storylines between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Florida State Seminoles are very, very deep for the final game played in 2010 in the college football betting campaign. These two will lock horns in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome as the losers of the SEC and ACC Championship games respectively. But which team will recover and post a win to finish up the calendar year? We have the three keys to the game for your Chick-Fil-A Bowl picks.

Key #1: Christian Ponder needs to prove that he is healthy and ready to go against a stout defense
These Gamecocks were no joke this year defensively, as they held teams to just 356.5 yards and 22.9 points per game this year. However, if you can beat this team, you have to do so through the air. If your name wasn’t the Auburn Tigers, you only averaged about 70 yards per game on the ground against SC this year, which puts the onus on the FSU passing game. Ponder has missed some games this year due to some various ailments, but right now, he is fighting with a bursa sac injury that cost him the 2010 ACC Championship Game against the Virginia Tech Hokies. The senior has probably cost himself a lot of money in the NFL Draft this year, but he did throw for 20 TDs on the campaign and is absolutely a capable signal caller. Ponder does have some explosive receivers at his disposal as well, though none of his top four targets had even 600 total yards on the season. The ball is spread around to four different targets, led by WR Bert Reed, who had 55 grabs for 589 yards and a pair of scores.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
South Carolina Gamecocks -3
Florida State Seminoles +3
Over/Under 54.5
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Key #2: Mark Stoops has to find a game plan to get into the face of Stephen Garcia
Florida State Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops has done a tremendous job this year getting his defense back in the saddle after a horrifying few seasons. This was the second best team in the ACC in terms of sacking the quarterback, and there were some fantastic games that this unit played up front. LB Mister Alexander is always terrorizing QBs, and he’s going to be tabbed with getting in the face of QB Stephen Garcia in this one. Garcia has been prone to throwing picks in his career, as he has 11 for the season in 315 pass attempts. The pressure needs to get into the South Carolina backfield in a hurry to keep the corners from having to guard the entire field against WR Alshon Jeffrey. It’s bad enough that Jeffrey can go and get a jump ball anywhere on the field. But to give him more than just a couple seconds to get open really just isn’t fair. Jeffrey caught 79 passes for 1,387 yards and nine TDs this year, and he is really one of the best ball catchers in the entire country. If FSU can’t stop him, it can’t stop this offense.

Key #3: Marcus Lattimore needs to be a workhorse
The Seminoles still have some problems stopping ground games at times, allowing 126.8 yards per game in 2010. Meanwhile, you won’t find a better freshman back in the game than Carolina’s RB Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore really made a name for himself this year against the Florida Gators, when he carried the ball 40 times for 212 yards and three TDs to help SC win the SEC East. The frosh wasn’t just a runner either. He had 26 catches for 364 yards and two TDs out of the backfield. However, when Garcia needs to get some of the pressure off of his shoulders, he turns around and hands the ball to No. 21. Lattimore had 248 carries this year for 1,198 yards and 17 scores, and he is likely to be the big time scorer on the day for the Gamecocks if they are going to beat the Chick-Fil-A Bowl odds.


Liberty Bowl Picks: UCF Knights vs. Georgia Bulldogs Analysis

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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The reward for the winner of Conference USA every single year is to come here to the Liberty Bowl for their NCAA football betting bowl bash. This year, the reps from C-USA are the UCF Knights, who are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in the history of the school this year. They’ll be looking for their first bowl victory in the history of the school when they take on the Georgia Bulldogs out of the SEC. There are three major keys that need to be watched when making your Liberty Bowl picks in this one on New Year’s Eve.

Key #1: AJ Green has to be a hero for UGA
Over the course of the first four games of the season, QB Aaron Murray was awfully questionable. The Bulldogs went just 1-3 in those games, and the buzzards were swarming to get rid of Head Coach Mark Richt. However, in those four games, WR AJ Green was suspended and wasn’t available. The first game he was back in the lineup, Green had a highlight reel touchdown catch against the Colorado Buffaloes. No, Georgia didn’t beat the Buffs, and it dropped to just 1-4 on the season. However, from that point forward, the Dawgs scored at least 31 points in all of their games. Green ended up with 49 catches for 771 yards and nine TDs to lead the team in all three categories. What Green also does is open up the deep game for WR Kris Durham, who averaged 21.1 yards per reception this year. The Knights have a solid pass defense, but they haven’t seen anything like what they are about to get from Green and the UGA passing game.

Liberty Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
UCF Knights +6.5
Georgia Bulldogs -6.5
Over/Under 53.5
Click Here to Bet on Your Liberty Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Georgia has to win the battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball
Normally when you think about Conference USA football, you tend to think about teams that are throwing the ball all over the field and aren’t playing much in the way of defense. However, this UCF team is a significantly different story. Head Coach George O’Leary comes from the mindset of the NFL, where running the ball and playing good defense is key, and he has instilled that tenacity in his squad. The Knights are outrunning their foes by over 90 yards per game this year. On the defensive front, DE Bruce Miller isn’t just one of the best linemen in C-USA, but he is one of the best in the entire country as well. He is now a two time Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. On offense, RB Latavius Murray and RB Ronnie Weaver have the ability to run the ball all over the place, and they both are able to slam the ball right up the gut at the opposition. Both men have at least ten TDs this year, and they combined for a whopping 278 carries and 1,423 yards on the campaign.

Key #3: One of these freshman quarterbacks has to shine
These two quarterbacks, Aaron Murray and Jeff Godfrey are amongst some of the only freshmen signal callers this year in bowl games. Murray obviously was helped out when Green came back into the lineup five games into the year, but his numbers really show a lot of maturity as the season progressed. He made some mistakes this year, but they were limited, as he only had six picks against 24 TDs. Murray should also become a 3,000 yard passer in this game assuming that he doesn’t get injured. Godfrey was a tremendous newcomer for the Knights this year. He won Conference USA Freshman of the Year this year for good reason. After replacing the injured QB Rob Calabrese, Godfrey threw for 2,042 yards on 68.4 percent completions. He accounted for 13 TDs against six picks through the air, and he ran for another 546 yards and 10 TDs on the ground. Godfrey did a great job managing everything this year, as he not only was a fantastic passer, but he managed to help UCF become one of the three rushers on this team that accounted for ten TDs on the ground. The only other team in the nation that can stake a claim to that? The Wisconsin Badgers, who will be playing in the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten champions.


Sun Bowl Picks: Notre Dame vs. Miami Analysis

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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If you’re a fan of historical value in college football betting action, the Sun Bowl is just the game for you. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Miami Hurricanes have a ton of National Championships between them, and they are going to meet up in the Sun Bowl on Friday. Though neither team is going to be thrilled with where they are playing from their expectations at the start of the year, they should be thrilled to renew an old rivalry from the 1980s and 1990s. The three keys to this game will help determine who will be walking about on El Paso with a ‘W’ for you to make your Sun Belt picks with.

Key #1: Miami’s offensive line has to keep Jacory Harris upright
It’s not always a matter of just getting sacked. The Hurricanes know that they have had all sorts of problems with quarterback injuries this year. Not only has Harris been knocked around a ton on the season, but both QB Stephen Morris and QB Alonzo Highsmith are both injured and are not accessible in this game. Everyone knows that QB Spencer Whipple, the son of Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple isn’t ready to be playing in a bowl game at this point in his career, as he just isn’t talented enough to keep up with the Golden Domers or any of the other 69 bowl teams. If anything happens to Harris, the Hurricanes might as well just walk off the field. Notre Dame knows that it has a great defensive front, and it will be getting back NT Ian Williams, the heart and soul of the center of the line. Harris threw for 1,756 yards and 14 TDs this year, and he is going to have to make sure that he takes care of the football and takes care of his own health to give his Canes a chance on Friday.

Sun Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +3
Miami Hurricanes -3
Over/Under 47.5
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Key #2: The backups for the Irish have to continue to shine
Head Coach Brian Kelly might not be all that thrilled that he had to really scratch and claw to get into the Sun Bowl this year, but he has to be incredibly encouraged about the depth on his team and the pride that the Golden Domers had this year. With QB Dayne Crist, TE Kyle Rudolph, and RB Armando Allen all out of the lineup, there are others that really had to step up their game to keep this men in white and gold going. QB Tommy Rees threw for 905 yards in limited action, and though he did struggle at time with eight picks, he also threw for ten TDs. RB Cierre Wood was virtually unheard of before Allen went down this year, and though he never really put together that tremendous game that made you go “Wow!” the sophomore did have 248 yards in total in his last three games of the year. TE Tyler Eifert stepped in place of one of the best tight ends in the country, and though he didn’t put up remarkable numbers either, he had 23 grabs for 321 yards and two trips to the end zone. These men are going to be critical against Miami, just as they have been all season long.

Key #3: It’s time for “The U” to show us that vaunted defense again
For years and years, what made the Hurricanes so good was their defense. There are generations of Miami players in the NFL on this side of the ball, from names like Ed Reed, Brandon Merriweather, Jonathan Vilma, Antrel Rolle… and the list could go on and on. This year, “The U” had some moments where it was dominating, especially against opposing passing games. This ‘D’ only conceded 146.3 yards per game through the pass this year, good enough to rank No. 2 in the nation. However, there is the feeling there that this team, especially in the front seven, is soft as could be. Allowing 167.3 yards per game on the ground is absolutely inexcusable, especially since the ACC really didn’t provide that much in the way of offensive challenges. Getting torched by the Florida State Seminoles was really the biggest disappointment of the year, and it showed that this was a team that could be taken down and tamed. The Canes really have to step up and get just downright angry at the Fighting Irish to make a statement on defense in this game.


Meineke Bowl Picks: South Florida Bulls vs. Clemson Tigers Analysis

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)
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If you’re a fan of defense, you’re going to love making your Meineke Car Care Bowl picks! The Clemson Tigers and South Florida Bulls can absolutely get after opposing offenses, and though neither offense is exactly proficient, this should still be a fantastic contest down on Tobacco Road. There are three major keys to this game that we have to discuss though, before you can beat the Meineke Car Care Bowl lines.

Key #1: Someone has to get a hat on Da’Quan Bowers
You’re not going to find a more interesting matchup in the bowl season than the South Florida offensive line against Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers. Bowers is one of the best pass rushers in the nation, and he is certainly going to end up cashing in on a huge contract in the NFL in the near future. He has 15.5 sacks this year and has caused teams lose 112 yards on the year. Both numbers are easily the best in the nation. He also used his athleticism to pick off a pass earlier this year. QB BJ Daniels had a massive problem with sacks over the course of his first two seasons, as he has been taken down in the backfield a whopping 52 times in just 18 starts over the course his two years.

Meineke Bowl Odds at JustBet
South Florida Bulls +5.5
Clemson Tigers -5.5
Over/Under 40.5
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Key #2: Someone has to step up and be a star for Clemson
What we have found out this season is that QB Kyle Parker really isn’t capable of being a superstar on the gridiron, and perhaps he should have just stuck in the Colorado Rockies organization, where he might have thrived as a pitcher. Parker only threw for 2,080 yards and 12 TDs this year, and he only averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The two men that really could be stepped up in this one are RB Jamie Harper and RB Andre Ellington. Harper is more of a grinder, but he has the capability to bust a big run when given the chance. He rumbled for 731 yards and six scores. Ellington was more explosive and has bigger play abilities. He rushed for 684 yards and had an average of 5.8 yards per carry. Ellington also has a kick return for a touchdown, and he could be used in every facet of the game to make those big plays happen. Regardless, against a defense that allowed just 308.1 yards and 19.5 points per game, and really held down some of the best offenses in the Big East this year.

Key #3: The Bulls can’t be grounded in the running game
What we don’t want to see out of the Bulls in this one is what we saw too often this year. QB BJ Daniels isn’t a man that should be handling the football 40 times in this game between throwing and passing, and you can bet if he has to do that, USF is in a lot of trouble. Instead, we want to see a lot more out of RB Moise Plancher and RB Demetris Murray. These two touched the ball 274 times between them on the campaign, and they rushed for 1,260 yards and eight TDs between them. The Bulls also run a lot of tricky play with the wide receivers on sweeps and the sorts, and this would help as well. Doing this also takes Bowers out of the game, as he is built a lot like DE Dwight Freeney for the Indianapolis Colts and isn’t all that effective against the rush. The Tigers allowed 120.2 yards per game this year on the ground, and though that ranks No. 24 in the land, we have to remember that a lot of these yards lost came from the sacks that Bowers and the gang picked up.


Holiday Bowl Picks: Washington Huskies vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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The Holiday Bowl is always one of the best NCAA football betting battles of the year in the bowl season, and this year shouldn’t be any exception. We have a real David vs. Goliath situation here in San Diego on Thursday night, as the Washington Huskies are taking on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game that really should be hot and heavy. Will U-Dub be able to exact some revenge from an early season loss to Big Red? Our Holiday Bowl keys to the game have the answers that you need to know before making your Holiday Bowl picks.

Key #1: Washington has to just forget about Round 1 against Nebraska
Sometimes, you just get blown out of the water in games. The Huskies were three point dogs at home earlier this year against the Cornhuskers, and they just never stood a chance. QB Taylor Martinez ran all over the place, the defense was stifling for Big Red, and by the time the dust settled in this one, Nebraska had scored a dominating five TD victory. The task for Head Coach Steve Sarkisian here is to make sure that his team’s psyche is still rock solid. He needs to turn that blowout loss into a form of motivation instead of being a reason for intimidation. Still, there is a lot that physically needs to change for U-Dub to even be able to compete in this one, and the biggest thing that really needs to happen is that it just needs to get tougher. Don’t be afraid to step up and smack the other guy in the mouth a little bit. Nebraska is like the big bully on the schoolyard, while Washington, which doesn’t have a single player on its roster that has every played in a bowl game before, looks like the little kid that just got his lunch money taken away. If the Huskies don’t stand tall and really believe that they can win this game, they’re going to get slaughtered.

Holiday Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Washington Huskies +13.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers -13.5
Over/Under 52.5
Click Here to Bet on Your Holiday Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Jake Locker needs to look like a first round pick in the NFL Draft for a change
We’re calling you out, kid! Locker really doesn’t look like a man that is capable of leading a team at the NFL level even though he has all of the raw abilities to get the job done. Sometimes, you just need a winner. Sure, we know that the Huskies never really did surround Locker with type of talent he needed to be able to compete in the Pac-10, but there is really no excuse for this four year starter to never throw for 3,000 yards and to never have a winning season. This is his first bowl game, and he needs to make it count in front of a nationally televised audience. Locker threw for 2,209 yards and ran for 302 more this year, accounting for 22 TDs against nine picks. Of course, he had three games this year in which he didn’t throw for even 100 yards in the game, one of which came against these Cornhuskers. Big Red held him to just 4-for-20 passing for 71 yards with a score and two picks, and if Locker can’t shake those cobwebs off, there is no hope for the Huskies. Nebraska’s defense held teams to just 294.8 yards per game this year, just 159.9 of which came through the air. Needless to say, the Black Shirts are licking their chops once again.

Key #3: Washington can’t let Nebraska’s trio reach milestones
Of course, we’re talking about the rushing threesome of QB Taylor Martinez, RB Roy Helu, and RB Rex Burkhead. These three are all within striking distance of the 1,000 yard barrier this year (Helu is already there), and if that happens, they’ll become the second trio in the history of college football, joining the Nevada Wolf Pack’s QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Vai Taua, and RB Luke Lippincott to all reach four digits in yards on the ground in the same season. These three all rushed for 100+ yards on the Huskies the first time around, and Washington just can’t let that happen again. U-Dub allowed a very questionable 200.9 yards per game to opposing ground attacks this year, and it was one of the few teams in the land that allowed at least 200 yards per game both passing and rushing. This is why the Huskies are one of the few teams in the bowl season that averaged allowing more points per game (31.2) than they scored (22.1).


Music City Bowl Picks: North Carolina vs. Tennessee Analysis

December 30th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist)

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The Tennessee Volunteers needed to win their final four games of the regular season to be able to get here to the bowl season, and they were handsomely rewarded with the right to play at the Music City Bowl in their own backyard in Nashville. The North Carolina Tar Heels might have to overcome a bit of a home field advantage in this one, but they’re still virtually a pick ’em on the Music City Bowl odds on Thursday night. Which team will prevail? Check out our Music City Bowl keys to the game to find out.

Key #1: TJ Yates needs to hang on to the football
Easier said than done. For his career, Yates has really been a much maligned quarterback in Chapel Hill, as he never really seemed to be able to make the big throws and constantly made mistakes that drove the fans batty. He was benched as a sophomore, but in both 2007 and 2009, he threw more INTs and TDs, and he never even threatened the 3,000 yard barrier. Yates was looked at as the weak link to a team that was good enough to win the ACC. In this, his senior season, the roles were reversed. Yates was good enough to win the ACC. His teammates certainly were not. Yates had two 400+ yard passing games in his last four overall, and he ended the season with 3,184 yards and 18 TDs against just eight picks. Without the help of the rest of this offense, this is really the key to keeping North Carolina moving. The running game isn’t there. The receiving options really aren’t plentiful. Yates really needs to do it all by himself. UT’s defense did rank No. 80 this year against the pass at 229.2 yards per game, and if that continues in this one, it is going to be a long, uphill climb for the Vols.

Music City Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
North Carolina Tar Heels +1
Tennessee Volunteers -1
Over/Under 50
Click Here to Bet on Your Music City Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Tyler Bray needs to just continue doing what he has been doing
Hey kid, here’s the plan. You’re a freshman, and you sort of thought you were redshirting this year. Instead of doing that, we’re going to throw you into the lineup against the eventual SEC East champions on the road, knowing that you need to win four of your final five games with a team that only has two wins thus far on the year to get us to a bowl game. Got it?…. That’s the story surrounding QB Tyler Bray in 2010. He was in the mix against the South Carolina Gamecocks and performed admirably, leading the team to a near upset and a cover against a 17.5 point spread. The Vols fired back with these last four games and won all four by double digits thanks to Bray. He threw for at least an average of 8.6 yards per attempt in each of his final five games of the year, and he had a TD/INT ratio of 13/5 in these games. He had three games of at least 320 yards through the air and put an average of 37.5 points per game on the board. North Carolina’s pass defense was alright this season in spite of all of the suspensions at the start of the campaign, allowing just 204.7 yards per game, ranking No. 39 in the land.

Key #3: Derek Dooley needs to get his boys to believe
Sometimes, it’s just a matter of some willpower from the coaching staff that can push teams to victories in bowl games. We saw it last year with Bobby Bowden and the Florida State Seminoles in the Gator Bowl, and we saw it just yesterday with Ralph Friedgen and the Maryland Terrapins. Sometimes, it works the other way as well. Just ask Mr. Stoops and his Arizona Wildcats what has gone on the last two seasons in bowl games. No one on Rocky Top was really particularly thrilled about the low key signing of Dooley in the offseason after Head Coach Lane Kiffin flew the coop and went to the USC Trojans, especially after Dooley got off to that horrendous 2-6 start to the year. However, this is a fiery, young coach, who really sparked his team at times in very close calls against some of the SEC’s best. If he can really keep this motivation going into Thursday’s game at the Music City Bowl, the Volunteers should be able to put their best foot forward to claim a ‘W’.