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We are now 11 weeks into the NFL season with Thursday night’s week 11 game in the books.  With the Bengals losing Joe Burrow for the season & other key injuries around the league, we thought this would be a good time to update our latest 2023-2024 Superbowl odds & offer some value picks to win Superbowl 58.  We have two midseason superbowl value picks listed below from the 2023 Super Bowl Odds.

Our pre-season value plays of Miami & Detroit turned out to be of good value based on their latest odds.  Our third preseason superbowl play of Cincinnati was holding value until the injury of quarterback, Joe Burrow.

The oddsmakers all but have eliminated the Cincinnati Bengals (19-1 odds @ JustBet) from being a likely contender, with their odds dropping to as low as 20-1, which is right around the same odds they are giving the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-1 (20-1 odds @ Bovada) after their week 10 blowout loss to the current superbowl favorite from the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers (5-1 odds @ Bovada).

Removing midsize long shots, the oddsmakers essentially have deemed the AFC a three way race between the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, & Kansas City Chiefs.  They have the NFC as a four way race between the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, & Dallas Cowboys.

Winning record teams in the AFC that the oddsmakers have almost dismissed include the Jacksonville Jaguars (20-1), Houston Texans (67-1), Pittsburgh Steelers (60-1), & Cleveland Browns (53-1)

Winning record teams in the NFC that the oddsmakers have almost dismissed include the Minnesota Vikings (70-1) & Seattle Seahawks (45-1)

Value Picks to win Super Bowl 58 (Week 10-11)
Note: These 2024 Superbowl Picks Were Added on 11/17/23

Houston Texans (Best Odds: +6700 @ JustBet)
The Texans are almost guaranteed to be a playoff team, and right now, they look better than the division leading Jacksonville Jaguars who only lead the AFC south by one game.  With Rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud playing as well as any QB in the league, the Texans have shown the ability to score points against the best defenses in the AFC.  This is obviously a long shot play in the hopes they can make a run to the AFC Championship game and provide a good hedging opportunity.

Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: +3000 @ Bovada)
With everyone down on the Bills after losing a close one at home to the Broncos on Monday night, we think 30 to 1 is a bit of an overshoot to the negative.  The Bills just fired offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey.  If new OC, Joe Brady can get the uber-talented Josh Allen back to playing like old previous self in weeks 11 & 12, then 30 to 1 will look like a steal come Tuesday morning in two weeks.  

2023 Value Superbowl Picks (Preseason)
Note: These 2024 Superbowl Picks Were Added on 8/21/23

Cincinnati Bengals (Best Odds: +950 @ My Bookie)
The fact that some books have the Bengals with deeper odds than the Bills is wild. Burrow is a healthy, playoff experienced, franchise QB, who now has even more chemistry with his team & coaching staff.  The Bengals now have more depth on offense at WR & they have added a top-tier tackle to a line that was hampered by injuries last year.  I’ll take Burrow at 10 to 1 all day long.

Miami Dolphins (Best Odds: +2100 @ GT Bets)
Jalen Ramsey’s knee injury will keep him out most of the season, which should give Cam Smith a bigger role than he had anticipated in his rookie season. The Dolphins have a newly hired defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who should get the most out of this talented defense with a strong pass rush. The offense looked strong last year prior to Tua’s injuries. They have two of the smarter coaching minds in the game on each side of the ball. The Dolphins are highly likely to be a playoff team. Combine that with the return of Jalen Ramsey, and it might spark a playoff run in the AFC.

Detroit Lions (Best Odds: +2500 @ GT Bets)
While most will tell you to always avoid betting the Lions, Detroit may have been the most improved team in the NFL last season.  They strung together 9 wins in 2022, and they no longer have to deal with Aaron Rodgers twice a year in a weakened NFC North.  The Lions managed to knock the Packers out of playoff contention with a massive week 18 upset in Green Bay.  The Lions finished the 2022 season winning 8 of their last 10.  They also added premier, first round draft pick talents at running back & linebacker.  They had six picks in the first three rounds of the 2023 draft. If 50% of them turn out to be hits (likely probability), that means they will have 3 impact rookies.

2023 Odds To Win The Super Bowl @ My Bookie (11/20/2023):
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Kansas City Chiefs +400
San Francisco 49ers +420
Philadelphia Eagles +470
Baltimore Ravens +800
Miami Dolphins +860
Dallas Cowboys +950
Detroit Lions +1075
Jacksonville Jaguars +1750
Buffalo Bills +2100
Cleveland Browns +3400
Seattle Seahawks +4300
Houston Texans +4700
New Orleans Saints +6000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6600
Minnesota Vikings +7500
Los Angeles Chargers +8000
Denver Broncos +11000
Cincinnati Bengals +13000
Atlanta Falcons +14000
Indianapolis Colts +14000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15000
Los Angeles Rams +17000
Green Bay Packers +17000
New York Jets +17000
Las Vegas Raiders +26000
Tennessee Titans +34000
Washington Commanders +46000
Chicago Bears +65000
Arizona Cardinals +80000
New England Patriots +90000
New York Giants +95000
Carolina Panthers +95000

Superbowl Futures Odds at Bovada Sportsbook (as of 11/17/23)
(Get a 50% Bonus at Bovada When Using This Link)

Kansas City Chiefs +500
San Francisco 49ers +500
Philadelphia Eagles +550
Baltimore Ravens +900
Dallas Cowboys +1000
Detroit Lions +1000
Miami Dolphins +1100
Cincinnati Bengals +2000
Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
Buffalo Bills +3000
Seattle Seahawks +3500
Cleveland Browns +5000
Los Angeles Chargers +5000
Minnesota Vikings +5500
Houston Texans +6000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
New York Jets +10000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12500
Atlanta Falcons +15000
Denver Broncos +15000
Las Vegas Raiders +15000
Green Bay Packers +17500
Los Angeles Rams +20000
Indianapolis Colts +25000
Washington Commanders +25000
Tennessee Titans +30000
Chicago Bears +75000
Arizona Cardinals +100000
New England Patriots +100000
Carolina Panthers +150000
New York Giants +150000

2023 Super Bowl Odds From @ JustBet (as of 11/17/2023):
(Get a Giant 100% Bonus at JustBet Using This Link)

Arizona Cardinals +125000
Atlanta Falcons +21500
Baltimore Ravens +770
Buffalo Bills +2450
Carolina Panthers +200000
Chicago Bears +85000
Cincinnati Bengals +1900
Cleveland Browns +5300
Dallas Cowboys +1125
Denver Broncos +14000
Detroit Lions +1165
Green Bay Packers +27500
Houston Texans +6700
Indianapolis Colts +26000
Jacksonville Jaguars +1875
Kansas City Chiefs +485
Las Vegas Raiders +23500
Los Angeles Chargers +5700
Los Angeles Rams +26707
Miami Dolphins +980
Minnesota Vikings +7000
New England Patriots +125000
New Orleans Saints +7000
New York Giants +200000
New York Jets +15000
Philadelphia Eagles +495
Pittsburgh Steelers +5500
San Francisco 49ers +450
Seattle Seahawks +4500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17500
Tennessee Titans +40000
Washington Commanders +36500