Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Thursday, March 28th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Arizona Wildcats and the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Arizona vs. Ohio State Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
Arizona vs. Ohio State Date/Time: Thursday, March 28th, 7:47 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: Arizona has to continue to do a great job of defending the perimeter
The Wildcats have really done well on the outside in this tournament, and they have done so against some teams that really can stroke the three-ball. New Mexico had no answer for the three-point shooting that Harvard brought to the table, while most were under the impression that Belmont was going to go all Florida Gulf Coast on the Wildcats. Instead, the two teams were held to just 13 three-point makes between them, and in this day and age in the NCAA Tournament against mid-majors, that’s not all that bad. Ohio State isn’t going to jack up nearly as many threes as the Crimson or the Bruins, but when it does shoot it from the outside, it does so with purpose. Arizona has to find a way to make sure that G Aaron Craft and all of those perimeter players stay quiet, because if they don’t and the Bucks get going, this game is going to be said and done with.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#6 Arizona Wildcats +3.5
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5
Over/Under 134
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Key #2: Deshaun Thomas has to remain a consistent star
For as good as the Big Ten was this season, there aren’t many players that are nearly as good as Thomas is. He’s big, he’s lanky, he’s quick, and he can shoot the ball from anywhere in the gym. He also is insanely consistent in his ways, and he rarely leaves games for more than a blow. He only sat out two minutes against Iowa State, and he has played at least 34 minutes in all but one game since January 26th. More importantly, he feels like he is good for at least 16 points every single night. In fact, in actuality, that’s precisely what he does. Thomas has put up at least 16 points in seven straight games and at least 14 points in every single game that he has played since that January 26th game against Penn State. If Thomas continues at this pace, he’ll be in great shape going forward. However, when he is on a drought, this whole offense seems to be out of whack, so Head Coach Thad Matta knows that he needs to get Thomas’ best game on Thursday to ensure taking care of the Wildcats.

Key #3: Ohio State has to stay on the gas pedal
How much longer can the Buckeyes really keep this pace up? That’s a real question that we have at the moment. Ohio State had to play three games in three days at the Big Ten Tournament two weeks ago, and last week, it had to play at a wicked pace against both Iona and Iowa State in a span of just a few days. We had a sense that perhaps the Buckeyes were getting tired at the end of that game against the Cyclones, and that’s perhaps why a double-digit lead was squandered late in the game, setting up Craft for his heroics. Did the week off really give the Bucks enough time to recover from such a brutal stretch? Playing Arizona isn’t going to make life any easier for sure, and the pace of this game is going to be kept down as a result. OSU doesn’t want to play this game into the 70s like Arizona will want to, and though there is no doubt that both teams can win at the other’s pace, we know that it is more important for the Buckeyes to use their energy on the defensive end of the court instead of having to run up and down with 60-70 possessions each.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Friday, March 29th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and the #2 Florida Gators go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida Location: Dallas Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 9:57 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: Florida needs to have used its few days off wisely
There’s no such thing as overlooking a team at this point in the dance. It’s clear to see what happened in the case of Florida Gulf Coast in the first week of the tournament. Georgetown, a perennially underachieving team in the NCAA Tournament, just didn’t seem to care all that much about what the Eagles were doing on the court, especially in the second half. San Diego State probably spent most of the week leading up to the dance focusing in on what Oklahoma and then Georgetown could bring to the table. Now though, comes the hard part for FGCU. Can the team really ultimately figure out how to beat the Gators? Florida is going to have two more big time games to watch that the Eagles played, and it is going to have had a full four days to look at tape and prepare to take on this exciting bunch. As long as Florida isn’t caught napping, something that we don’t suspect to see happen, the orange and blue should be on their way to the Elite Eight without all that much in the way of hassles.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +13
#3 Florida Gators -13
Over/Under 135
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Key #2: The Eagles have to continue to believe that they belong here
This really is the point in the tourney when a lot of the much smaller schools start to bow out of the NCAA Tournament. Cinderella has a nice run into the second week of the dance, but after that, the clock strikes midnight, the chariot turns into a pumpkin, and that’s the end of the whole glass slipper story. Still, so many of these underdog teams feel like they are just happy to be in the moment. Granted, we know that the Eagles are out there having the most fun of any of the 16 teams that are left in the field, and if they were beaten by 60 on Friday night, they’ll still leave Dallas with their heads held high. However, this is where we are going to see whether Head Coach Andy Enfield and his gang are really ready for the big time or not. The cameras have been on lowly little Florida Gulf Coast for a full week, and there is no doubt that this is the biggest thing that ever hit this campus. Will FGCU act like it belongs here and challenge the Gators the same way that it challenged San Diego State and Georgetown? That’s the question that badly needs to be answered.

Key #3: The Gators have to put this game away with their defense
Regardless as to whether or not Florida Gulf Coast truly is a team that is worthy of being in the Sweet 16 or not, we do know one thing from that first week of the tourney. We know that this team can run, and we know that it can score. Not just anyone can score 78 on Georgetown and 81 against San Diego State. Those were two very strong defensive teams. The Gators though, have a tendency to be in a different league from that standpoint. This is a very athletic team and is one that has the guards that should be able to slow down G Brett Comer and the gang. A lot has been made of the running style that the Eagles deploy, and we have seen those hammer ally-oop dunks over and over again over the course of the few days. F Erik Murphy is going to stay at home though, and he isn’t going to get lured out of position by all of the ball movement and the speed of the game. Simply put, Florida has to slow this thing down, take the air out of the basketball, and force the game into half-court set after half-court set. It’s not flashy, but it’s not dangerous either, and as we have seen, it’s when FGCU starts getting flashy that it is really getting the crowd into the game.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Friday, March 29th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Kansas Jayhawks go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Michigan vs. Kansas Location: Dallas Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Michigan vs. Kansas Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 7:37 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: The Wolverines need to contain Jeff Withey
Get used to hearing this for the rest of the tournament for as long as the Jayhawks are in it. At an imposing seven-feet tall, Withey has the type of size that just doesn’t exist in college basketball. He never strays all that far away from the basket, even if his man tries to get him outside. The problem with having a smaller man on him that could at least get him outside of the paint is that someone has to defend him on the other side of the court. That’s the big problem that Big Blue needs to avoid. Withey put up 16 points, 16 boards, and five blocks against an undersized North Carolina outfit the last time out, and there really isn’t going to be much of an answer for him in the Michigan lineup either. The key isn’t going to be stopping Withey, because that isn’t going to happen. They can’t let him get block happy either, as his offensive game seems to feed off of his defensive game. When Withey is rejecting all sorts of shots in the lane, he tends to get himself some more opportunities on the other side of the court, and quite frequently, those shots that he takes are of a very high percentage.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#4 Michigan Wolverines +2
#1 Kansas Jayhawks -2
Over/Under 136
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Key #2: Michigan simply has to get some points on the board
Here are some stats for you that might blow your mind. The Wolverines played some flat out awesome defensive teams this season. Michigan played a total of seven games against Top 25 defensive teams, two against Michigan State, two against Wisconsin, two against Ohio State, and one against Pittsburgh. In games against those teams, the Wolverines averaged just 57.3 points per 40 minutes. (Remember that a game against Ohio State and one against Wisconsin went to overtime.) In Kansas’ last 25 NCAA Tournament games, it has played to the ‘under’ to the tune of a 21-4 record. In that stretch, the team has allowed just 61.4 points per game. In the games that it has lost in the dance since 2007, it has allowed 68.4 points per game, and each of the foes scored at least 66 points against the Jayhawks. In the wins that it has had in that run, it has allowed 59.7 points per game and has only allowed more than 65 points twice in those games. That’s just a remarkably consistent stat for Head Coach Bill Self and the gang, and if Michigan doesn’t plan on getting into the 60s in this one, it isn’t going to end up winning the game.

Key #3: Glenn Robinson III has to continue to avoid being a no-show
The Big Dog’s son has had himself a very interesting first year with the Wolverines. He averaged 11.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he really did show tremendous flashes of athleticism along the way. Robinson though, was wildly inconsistent throughout the season. He scored eight points or fewer 12 times this season in 35 games. In those games where he scored eight or fewer, the Wolverines averaged just 68.3 points per game. They went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS. In games in which Robinson scored at least nine points, Michigan went 22-1 SU and 13-7-1 ATS. When you take out the games against teams that aren’t dancing, what’s left are an 0-6 SU record and a 1-5 ATS mark. When Robinson did score at least nine points against tourney teams this year, Big Blue is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. That’s a humongous overlay, and it’s further proof that the Wolverines really need Robinson to step it up and remain a consistent player if they want to have any realistic chance of coming away with a ‘W’.

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Friday night in Indianapolis, the top seed in the Midwest Region, the Louisville Cardinals will take on one of the upstarts of the tournament, the Oregon Ducks. Our March Madness predictions are set to take place here at Bankroll Sports, as we analyze the keys to the game so you can make your Oregon vs. Louisville picks. Join us for the three most pressing factors that are going to help determine which one of these two teams is going to get to the Elite Eight and just one step away from the Final Four in Atlanta.

March Madness: Oregon Ducks vs. Louisville Cardinals
Oregon vs. Louisville Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Oregon vs. Louisville Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 7:15 p.m. ET
March Madness Television Coverage: CBS

Key #1: Dominic Artis has to get healthy
We’re starting to wonder if Artis really is ever going to be healthy this year for the Ducks. He hasn’t truly been a major factor in games, especially down the stretch ever since going out with an ankle injury at the outset of the Pac-12 season. Now, he is going to be in the thick of the fight against one of the most talented backcourts in the country. The Ducks have been fortunate to get good contributions from G Johnathan Loyd over the course of the middle of the Pac-12 campaign, and Loyd played well during the Pac-12 Tournament as well. However, he has only scored a total of 14 points and has a total of nine assists against nine turnovers here in the dance thus far, and that isn’t going to cut it. Either Loyd has to be a whole heck of a lot better, or Artis has to prove that he can be on the court and be productive with the game on the line, or the Ducks are in a lot of trouble.

Oregon vs. Louisville Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
#12 Oregon Ducks +10
#1 Louisville Cardinals -10
Over/Under 128.5
Click Here to Bet Your Sweet 16 Picks!

Key #2: Gorgui Dieng has to go back to being a dominating star
All of a sudden over the course of these last few games, Dieng has sort of disappeared in the Louisville rotation. He only has a total of 20 points and 10 rebounds in two games here in the NCAA Tournament, and he just isn’t getting the shot opportunities in the paint that he is used to getting. Part of Dieng’s game is getting the ball in the paint and dominating. We know that here in the dance, those opportunities are going to be fewer and farther between, especially with the way that the three-point shots get jacked up on both sides of the court. However, Dieng is still the one man that few can match up with in this entire country. He had a tough draw against Colorado State on Saturday, and he is going to have a rough one as well against F Arsalan Kazemi, who had eight points and 16 boards in the third round against a very tough Saint Louis outfit. However, Head Coach Rick Pitino cannot lose sight of the fact that he has as talented of a big man as there is in the country, and Dieng needs to be a big part of the game plan to win this one.

Key #3: The Ducks have to capitalize on their trips to the line
Just getting to the charity stripe is a tough task when you’re playing a team like Louisville. However, in the third round on Saturday, the Cardinals committed a total of 24 fouls in spite of the fact that the game was largely a blowout, especially in the second half. As a result, Colorado State went to the free throw line 21 times. Oregon has generally had a degree of success at the stripe over the course of the season, knocking down right around 71% of its chances. However, here in the NCAA Tournament, the Ducks are shooting just 64.9% from the foul line. Oregon isn’t going to be able to keep up the torrid pace that it is shooting three-pointers at right now (48.5% for the tourney), but what it can control is the way that it is shooting foul shots. There is no doubt that this is a team that is going to need to put together every point that it can possibly find. Leaving too many points on the board will certainly result in disaster against a team that it is tough enough to score on in the first place.

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The 2013 NIT Bracket was just released here on Selection Sunday, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to be taking a quick look at the teams that are going to be playing in the NIT this year and what they need to do to beat the odds to win the NIT and make it to Madison Square Garden for the NIT Final Four!

We’re going to start over in the Kentucky region, where the Wildcats are actually going to have to go on the road for the opening game of this tournament. The top seed in the tourney is going to have to hit the road to go to Pittsburgh to face Robert Morris, the automatic qualifiers from the Northeast Conference. After taking on the Colonials, either Providence or Charlotte will be on deck in games that really shouldn’t prove to be all that difficult if the Wildcats are going to really play this tournament full out. Arizona State and Baylor are the highlight teams in the bottom of the bracket, but Detroit (arguably the last team that made it to the NIT) and Long Beach State, an automatic qualifier from the Big West are also in the bracket.

The winner of the Kentucky bracket will face the winner of the Southern Miss bracket at Madison Square Garden. Things really don’t setup all that well for the Golden Eagles, knowing that they didn’t beat a single RPI Top 50 team all season long. They don’t have many great RPI teams in this bracket, but Florida State and Louisiana Tech could be ready to pounce in Hattiesburg. BYU seems to be a bit of a paper tiger of a No. 3 seed, but the Cougars were clearly picked here due to the fact that they will fill up the Marriott Center on Tuesday against Washington. The Huskies are a great team that deserved to be in better shape than this for the NIT. The winner has to likely head East to Knoxville, where the Volunteers are going to hope to continue their solid play in the second season.

The opposite side of the 2013 NIT Bracket is going to be insane, as it is chock full of teams that have a ton to prove. The Alabama bracket is going to feature some teams that have to travel quite a long ways to get to each of their games. If the chalk holds up on Tuesday, Alabama will get to host Stanford, which has a tough draw in its own right against Stephen F. Austin. Ohio was probably one of the last teams that made it into the NIT, and it will take on a Denver team that many thought would have little chance to get into the tournament at all, let alone host a game. Maryland and Niagara should make for some exciting basketball as well. The Terrapins really hit their stride at the end of the season, and they have a couple major wins over Duke to their credit as well.

It might be a bit surprising to see Virginia as a No. 1 seed here in the NIT, but that’s bad news for the rest of the teams in its bracket. The Hoos were dominating at home at John Paul Jones Arena this year, and as long as they are over the disappointing of having to play in the NIT instead of the NCAAs, there is a good shot that they can win this tournament. Their first victim is a Norfolk State team that made some history last year when it came out of the No. 15 slot and beat No. 2 Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. Joe’s and St. John’s are going to face off in a regional game that should be a thrilled. Iowa and Indiana State both have to be really disappointed that they are so low on the NIT bracket. The Hawkeyes really could have been a top seed in our eyes, but they were relegated to a No. 3 and will likely only get one game at Carver Hawkeye Arena as a result. UMass is the No. 2 seed that will host the first two games in this region as long as it keeps winning, and it gets Stony Brook in its opening soiree.

The NIT schedule is only a week away from being released, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are taking another look at our NIT Bracketology picks for how we think that the field of 32 could look. We’ll be keeping this updated regularly, and now that we are in the week of the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be updating with every passing result that could change the way that the 2013 NIT Tournament could look.

Before we begin, here’s how the NIT works. There are 32 teams that make it into the field, and before there are any other teams that are put into place, any team that won its conference regular season crown but didn’t make it into the NCAA Tournament gets an automatic spot.

List of Teams With Automatic Bids To NIT
Stony Brook Seawolves (America East)
Mercer Bears (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (Big South)
Long Beach State 49ers (Big West)
Northeastern Huskies (Colonial)
Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC)
Niagara Purple Eagles (Metro Atlantic)
Robert Morris Colonials (Northeast)
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (WAC)

*Note: Middle Tennessee State also has a guaranteed spot in the NIT if it doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament, though for now, we have the Blue Raiders in the field

There are going to be 22 at large bids to the NIT that are up for grabs after 10 top seeds fell in their conference tournaments over the course of the last two weeks. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders would be automatic qualifiers if they dropped into the NIT as well, but they would clearly fit the bill as an NIT team regardless of their conference affiliation.

NIT No. 1 Seeds: Kentucky Wildcats, Virginia Cavaliers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Tennessee Volunteers
NIT No. 2 Seeds: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, Maryland Terrapins, Alabama Crimson Tide, Stanford Cardinal
NIT No. 3 Seeds: Baylor Bears, Providence Friars, Xavier Musketeers, Florida State Seminoles
NIT No. 4 Seeds: Washington Huskies, Arizona State Sun Devils, Arkansas Razorbacks, Massachusetts Minutemen
NIT No. 5 Seeds: Indiana State Sycamores, Charlotte 49ers, BYU Cougars, Air Force Falcons
NIT No. 6 Seeds: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, St. John’s Red Storm, St. Joseph’s Hawks, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
NIT No. 7 Seeds: Robert Morris Colonials, Stony Brook Seawolves, Niagara Purple Eagles, Long Beach State 49ers
NIT No. 8 Seeds: Mercer Bears, Northeastern Huskies, Norfolk State Spartans, Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Atlantic 10
NIT Locks: Xavier Musketeers, Charlotte 49ers, Massachusetts Minutemen
NIT Bubble: St. Joseph’s Hawks, Richmond Spiders
There is now absolutely no doubt in our minds that Xavier, Charlotte, and UMass are going to be in the NIT. The Minutemen had to think they could get the job done, but losing to VCU on Saturday was the end of their chances of dancing. Beyond that though, the Hawks and the Spiders are going to be hoping not to see any more upsets in conference tournaments. Many think that the Hawks are okay, but Richmond really is practically dead at this point. All of those technical fouls proved to be killers, not only for any hopes of advancing in the A-10 Tournament, but for making it into the NIT as well.

ACC
NIT Locks: Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Cavaliers, Florida State Seminoles
NIT Bubble: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Florida State got into the NIT for sure when it held on to beat Clemson. It didn’t help its case when it was beaten by North Carolina badly in the second half on Friday, but we still don’t see any way that the garnet and gold aren’t in the NIT. Georgia Tech is still hanging on, but the chances are looking grim at best. The Jackets really needed the NIT bubble to stay large, but it keeps getting tighter and tighter, and they’re probably amongst the ones getting squeezed out. Maryland did the job that it needed to do on Friday by beating Duke, but it couldn’t get the job done by beating North Carolina. The Terrapins aren’t quite going to be good enough to dance, but they’ll be a home team in the first at least two rounds in the NIT.

Big 12
NIT Locks: Baylor Bears
NIT Bubble: None
Baylor has probably lost out on its chances to get into the NCAA Tournament after losing to Oklahoma State on Thursday. That certainly leaves the Bears in the NIT. As far as Texas is concerned, it was beaten badly by Kansas State and really can’t be considered for the NIT any longer.

Big East
NIT Locks: Providence Friars
NIT Bubble: St. John’s Red Storm
We’ll start this discussion by saying that Big East teams that have a good enough record to get into the NIT usually do. That means that St. John’s really should have nothing to worry about in spite of the fact that we have it as one of the last few at large teams getting in. The Johnnies gave the NIT Selection Committee a reason to not put them in the NIT by playing pitiful basketball down the stretch. Put them in a different conference, and we would have a different discussion. But in the Big East, especially for the team that plays its home games at the home of the Final Four, Madison Square Garden? It’s just not likely to see St. John’s left off the line. Providence has done enough, plain and simple.

Big Sky
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Weber State Wildcats
The Wildcats finished out the season in the most predictable way possible. They only suffered six defeats on the campaign, but that sixth loss came to Montana in crushing fashion on the road. Many think that this is an NIT team. We aren’t all that sure. Weber State is going to have to convince the NIT Selection Committee that it has a better resume than perhaps an Atlantic 10 team with not quite the same type of resume, and we just don’t know if that truly could be the case. It seems like the Wildcats are off to the CBI or the CIT if they want to continue playing in the second season.

Big 10
NIT Locks: Iowa Hawkeyes
NIT Bubble: None
We feel really bad for Head Coach Fran McCaffery and the gang. The Hawkeyes were one of the best 37 at large teams in the nation as we saw it this year, but they scheduled so poorly in the non-conference season that there was no way to justify putting them in the dance. They’ll be here in the NIT and get at least two, if not three home games as long as they keep winning as their reward for a solid season, though. Not a terrible consolation prize for a team that is still a step or two shy of competing with the big boys in the Big Ten.

Conference USA
NIT Locks: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
NIT Bubble: None
The Golden Eagles did everything that they could to get into the bracket, but they just weren’t able to get the job done when push came to shove. They haven’t beaten any of the Top 50 RPI teams this year, and we would be shocked if they get the nod into the dance as a result. Southern Miss will earn some home games here in the NIT though, and it will have to play every bit as well as it did for the first 50 minutes against the Tigers on Saturday to continue to advance against some of the next best teams in the game.

Horizon League
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Detroit Titans
Detroit is still in the discussion, but that discussion is really starting to get bleaker and bleaker. The Titans would have probably been on the No. 7 line or so had the field stayed at 32, but alas, now that that number is down to 22 with no more games to help out the resume, it’s going to be virtually impossible to get into the NIT.

MAC
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Ohio Bobcats
Poor Ohio. The team was favored to take down the MAC crown, and it really had to figure that it had Akron dead to rights coming into Saturday’s MAC Championship Game. However, it was Akron that really stepped up to the plate to claim the league title, and in the end, Ohio is right there on the NIT cut line as we see it. This is another one of these teams like Weber State that has a pretty good record, but not quite the same type of resume as a team like BYU or St. Joe’s. The Bobcats seem to be headed to the CBI or the CIT this season.

Missouri Valley Conference
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Indiana State Sycamores, Northern Iowa Panthers
Indiana State and Northern Iowa are both vexing cases to get into the NIT. The Sycamores had to think that they were going to contend for a spot in the NCAA Tournament until getting beaten prematurely in the Missouri Valley Tournament. Now, some think that they are going to miss out on the NIT as well. We tend to think otherwise. The Sycamores should be in this field. The window is closing quickly on Northern Iowa, and there just don’t seem to be enough bids left to this tourney to put the Panthers in.

Mountain West
NIT Locks: Air Force Falcons
NIT Bubble: None
Air Force dodged a few bullets, just like so many of the other teams that were hoping to get into the NIT on Saturday. Only one of the four potential bids to the NIT were stolen, and as a result, there are still enough bids that are left to think that the Falcons are a lock to be in the nation’s secondary postseason tournament. The Mountain West was too good this year to ignore, and we have to think that a team that beat some of the best teams in the conference would be deserving a slot in at least the NIT.

Ohio Valley
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Murray State Racers
Murray State is still praying that it gets the call from the NIT Selection Committee on Selection Sunday, but it really isn’t looking good at this point. That’s too bad for Murray State fans, as this team came so close to winning the Ohio Valley, and now, it probably won’t get a chance to see its team play again this year unless there is a change of heart to go to the CBI (or perhaps the CIT).

Pac-12
NIT Locks: Stanford Cardinal, Washington Huskies, Arizona State Sun Devils
NIT Bubble: None
This is a cut and dry conference at this point. Some think that U-Dub isn’t going to get into the NIT, but after last year when the team made a great run to the Final Four at MSG, we just can’t see it happening. The Huskies played well down the stretch, they’re 18-15, they have a respectable RPI, and they only lost in overtime to Oregon in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. This is a good enough team to play in the second season.

SEC
NIT Locks: Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Kentucky Wildcats
NIT Bubble: LSU Tigers
It really seems as though the SEC is going to have to go through the pain of having at least four teams in the NIT this year. Tennessee and Arkansas both played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament, and Kentucky probably ultimately did so as well. The Rebels were in the NIT as we saw it at the start of the day, but after they knocked off Vanderbilt on Saturday, they are in the dance. The team dropping in is Kentucky. The Wildcats were crushed by Vandy in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, and they really don’t deserve to get into the field of 68 as a result. On the other side of the NIT bubble, LSU remains at least in consideration. Vandy fell off of the NIT line after getting beaten by Alabama, but the CBI could be in the cards for the Commodores as well after such a nice run into the SEC semifinals.

West Coast Conference
NIT Locks: BYU Cougars
NIT Bubble: None
We have seen enough other projections for the NIT to know that BYU is probably safe and sound. Though we think based upon merit, there is no way that the Cougs should be safe, nor should they be hosting a game, but this is a tournament that is all about revenue. There will at least have to be a possibility that the Cougars can pack the Marriott Center at least one more time this year. Don’t be shocked if BYU ends up on the No. 4 line to get that home game even though we’re not even 100% sure that it deserves to be in the NIT field after losing to San Diego in the WCC Tournament.

WAC
NIT Locks: None
NIT Bubble: Denver Pioneers, Utah State Aggies
Gulp. The WAC is going to have its one team in the NIT for sure… Louisiana Tech is going to fall into the NIT as an automatic qualifier. But what happened to Denver and Utah State? Both lost to subpar teams in the WAC Tournament, and now, they’re at the mercy of the NIT Selection Committee. It’s not looking good for either one with only 22 slots up for grabs right now.

Note: Italic represents projected conference winner, automatic bid. Bold represents teams that have already clinched NCAA Tournament bids

NCAA Tournament Bracketology Updated As Of Games Completed On 3/17/13 3:00 PM

1 Seeds – Gonzaga Bulldogs, Louisville Cardinals, Indiana Hoosiers, Kansas Jayhawks
We think that Gonzaga, Indiana, and Louisville have all done enough to ensure the fact that they are going to be on the top line come Selection Sunday at this point. The Hoosiers might have put themselves in a bit of peril after losing to the Badgers, but there really should be no doubt about IU’s safety on the top line. The Dookies were here on the top line for quite some time, but we think that winning the Big XII title was enough to get the Jayhawks here on the top line instead. It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see Duke here come Selection Sunday, but KU is the right choice that the Selection Committee should be making. Louisville won the Big East Tournament, and the argument could be made that they are the best team in the country once again. Though we think that Gonzaga should be the No. 1 overall seed in the dance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cards get that nod instead.

2 Seeds – Miami Hurricanes, Duke Blue Devils, Ohio State Buckeyes, Florida Gators
We really think that the No. 2 line is pretty much cut and dry at this point. The Hurricanes won the ACC title by knocking off North Carolina, but that isn’t going to be enough to put them all the way up on the No. 1 line. Florida meanwhile, was beaten at the death in shocking fashion by Ole Miss, and that is going to keep the orange and blue on the No. 2 line as well. No one was really able to capitalize to take its No. 2 seed. Ohio State is going to be on the No. 2 line whether it wins the Big Ten title or not.

3 Seeds – New Mexico Lobos, Georgetown Hoyas, Michigan State Spartans, Syracuse Orange
The Lobos captured the Mountain West title, and the way that things are shaking out, they could be in for a great bracket when things are released on Sunday. They’ll be playing at home in the West Bracket and will be the only West Coast based team at the top of that bracket. Georgetown has fallen down after not playing for a couple of days after bowing out of the Big East Tournament in the quarters. Syracuse has made it to the No. 3 line by getting to the Big East Tournament Final. They couldn’t lock down the automatic bid to the dance though, as Louisville proved to be just too strong. Michigan State couldn’t get to the Big Ten title game, but the Spartans have done enough in our eyes to stay on the No. 3 line.

Note: Syracuse would move down to a No. 4 seed if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship Game

4 Seeds – Michigan Wolverines, Kansas State Wildcats, Wisconsin Badgers, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Some moving and some shaking here on the No. 4 line as we go into the second to last day of the regular season. Michigan’s loss to Wisconsin really hurts any case that the Wolverines have of being in the Top 3 lines, and we think that there is nowhere to go but down from here for Big Blue. Okie State’s loss to Kansas State might ultimately see it down a line, but not necessarily. The Wildcats didn’t win the Big XII, but they shouldn’t be punished for it. Losing to Kansas, even if it was for the third time this year, isn’t the end of the world. Wisconsin’s win over Indiana was a huge step in the right direction for the Badgers, as they are most certainly going to be in the top four lines in the NCAA Tournament.

Note: Wisconsin would move up to a No. 3 seed if it wins the Big Ten Championship Game

5 Seeds – UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Marquette Golden Eagles, Saint Louis Billikens
Notre Dame bowed out of the semifinals of the Big East Tournament, but there is nothing to worry about for Head Coach Mike Bray’s team. The Fighting Irish have earned a Top 5 slot in the dance. The Runnin’ Rebels didn’t really do anything wrong to fall down to the No. 5 line, but losing in the MWC title game kept them from moving back up to the Top 4 lines. After winning the A-10 title winning a combined five games this year against VCU and Butler, there is no reason for the Billikens to not be at least on the No. 5 line, if not even a tad higher than this.

6 Seeds – Arizona Wildcats, Pittsburgh Panthers, Memphis Tigers, Creighton Blue Jays
Arizona lost a spot on our line when Saint Louis won the Atlantic 10 title on Sunday. It took two overtimes, but Memphis was able to close out Southern Miss in Tulsa on Saturday morning. The Tigers aren’t moving up any, but they aren’t moving down any either. Pittsburgh is the fourth team on this line, as it lost out on its chance to get any higher on the bracket when it was beaten early at Madison Square Garden.

7 Seeds – Oregon Ducks, North Carolina Tar Heels, UCLA Bruins, NC State Wolfpack
The No. 7 line seems to be just about complete as we see it. The Tar Heels really weren’t hurt by the fact that they were beaten by Miami on the final day of the regular season, as the good that they did by getting to the ACC Tournament Final did more to help than the loss to “The U” hurt. Oregon won the Pac-12 Tournament, and we think that this is about as high as it could ultimately go. Meanwhile, the loss to UCLA killed the hopes that the Bruins had of moving up to the No. 6 line. NC State’s ACC Tournament didn’t turn out to be all that bad. The win over Virginia was nice, and the loss to the Hurricanes was expected.

8 Seeds – VCU Rams, Butler Bulldogs, Colorado State Rams, Illinois Fighting Illini
VCU was a winner on Friday and Saturday, but it was beaten on Sunday in the Atlantic 10 Final. HAVOC might be on this dreaded 8 line, and if that’s the case, there is going to be a bitter No. 1 seed somewhere that has to know that it could be in for a real fight. Colorado State was beaten in the MWC Semifinals by UNLV, hardly a disqualifying loss. Illinois was beaten by Indiana, but because it suffered a better beating than some of these teams did below it, we actually have the Illini moving up as a result of their defeat. Butler falls down to the No. 8 line on Saturday after losing for the third time this year to Saint Louis.

9 Seeds – Missouri Tigers, San Diego State Aztecs, Wichita State Shockers, Colorado Buffaloes
Not a heck of a lot to report here on the No. 9 line. Missouri and San Diego State both lost opportunities to move up when they were beaten on Friday night. Wichita State is still holding firm as a No. 9 on our line, though others have the Shockers a lot lower than we do. Colorado is finished in the Pac-12 Tournament and will likely be sitting right around here as a result.

10 Seeds – Villanova Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones, St. Mary’s Gaels, Cincinnati Bearcats
No one on the No. 10 line really has done all that much over the course of the last few days. Villanova and Iowa State both lasted just two rounds in their conference tournament before ultimately crashing out. Cincinnati is okay in spite of the fact that it really dropped down the stretch. St. Mary’s should be okay as well, knowing that it made it to the WCC Final. Some will think that the lack of RPI Top 50 victories will hurt the Gaels, but the rest of the bubble teams really are in terrible shape.

11 Seeds – Temple Owls, Oklahoma Sooners, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Ole Miss Rebels
Temple was beaten by UMass in a loss that could ultimately send it to Dayton. We think that the Owls will be okay. Oklahoma and Minnesota are teams that should still be sweating just a bit about the prospects of having to go to Dayton, but both of these teams are comfortably in the field at this point. Ole Miss has won the SEC Tournament, and as a result, it can’t play in the First Four in Dayton. The quality victory was good enough to move the Rebs up all the way to the No. 11 line as we see it though, and that would have been good enough to avoid the First Four anyway.

12 Seeds – California Golden Bears, La Salle Explorers, Belmont Bruins, Davidson Wildcats, Valparaiso Crusaders
There is pretty much a consensus at this point that La Salle’s loss to Butler really puts the Explorers in a lot of trouble. Many still have them in the field, and we’re no exception for that, but the A-10 reps are by no means totally safe. California is the big loser as we see it from Ole Miss winning the SEC title. Instead of staying on the main bracket and getting into the second round without having to play, the boys from Berkeley are going to have to take the long trip to Dayton for the First Four. Belmont has been firmly on the No. 12 line as the OVC champs. Because of all of the bubble chaos, Davidson is moving up a line after winning the SoCon. This will be a No. 12 seed not to mess with for sure. We move Valpo up to the No. 12 line as the Horizon League champs, and there are going to be some No. 5 seeds that hope they don’t see the Crusaders in their bracket.

13 Seeds – Boise State Broncos, Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, Akron Zips, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Northwestern State Demons
South Dakota State remain locked into the No. 13 line right now after winning the Summit League crown. Akron won the MAC in spite of the fact that it was brutalized at the end of the regular season with G Alex Abreu getting suspended after getting picked up for drug trafficking. Northwestern State stole the bid from the Southland Conference from the favored Stephen F. Austin team, and now, the Demons are dancing. Notice that we dropped the last two teams in the field down to the No. 13 line? The Broncos and the Blue Raiders seem to be the perfect two teams to match up here in Dayton for the First Four. Both were inadequate in their respective conference tournaments. They’re going to both be sweating it out for the next few hours until the brackets are released, but we have to think that both are going to be on the line. We think that both resumes are significantly better than those of the teams from the ACC or the SEC that are also fighting for spots in the dance.

14 Seeds – Bucknell Bison, New Mexico State Aggies, Montana Grizzlies, Harvard Crimson
Montana had to hold off a tremendous Weber State team in the Big Sky final to get into the NCAA Tournament, but in the end, the hosts for the championship game were able to get the job done and clinch a bid on their home court. Bucknell and Harvard have been automatic entries into the dance for quite some time at this point. New Mexico State wrapped up the bid to the dance out of the WAC after a crazy conference tournament that saw all of the best teams, save for the Aggies, bow out prematurely.

15 Seeds – Iona Gaels, Albany Great Danes, LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
With the fall of another prospective 15 seed, we’ve moved Western Kentucky out of the Sun Belt off of the bottom line. LIU Brooklyn and Iona are both awfully fun teams to watch, and they have a ton of NCAA Tournament experience. No one is going to want to see these two teams on their schedule in the first round of the dance. The Great Danes are in the dance after going on the road and beating the Catamounts on Saturday, and they are going to be in a tough spot as either a 15 or a 16 in the dance.

16 Seeds – Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, James Madison Dukes, Pacific Tigers, Southern Jaguars, North Carolina A&T Aggies, Liberty Flames
We’re bumping some teams all around in the No. 16 line after another relatively wild day in conference tournament play. Long Beach State was expected to win the Big West this year, but after a wild set of semifinals, it was Pacific that ended up beating UC Irvine for the right to dance. We’re not all that sure that it’ll be good enough to keep the Tigers from going to Dayton, but at least they’re on their way to the NCAA Tournament Liberty, North Carolina A&T, and Southern are all going to be headed to Dayton for sure. The question is which ones of these other teams in the bottom two lines will be joining these three.

Bubbles Busted – Tennessee Volunteers, Virginia Cavaliers, Maryland Terrapins, Kentucky Wildcats, Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

And what’s left are just a few teams, and we’re not even so sure that Tennessee or Virginia really has a way to get into the field. The Cavaliers are probably in slightly better shape right now, but both teams need a ton of help, and they have no one to blame but themselves. The Vols lost to Alabama. The Cavvies lost to NC State. Neither team did enough in non-conference play. See you both in the NIT.

2:30 PM Update: Southern Miss really put forth a great effort against Memphis on Saturday, but the loss, even though it came in two overtimes, really wasn’t good enough to get the job done. We now know that the Golden Eagles should be in the NIT, though they are going to likely have the highest RPI amongst teams that aren’t going to get into the NCAA Tournament. No Top 50 RPI wins will be the killer for this squad.

4:00 PM Update: Alabama falls off of the bubble line on Saturday after getting beaten by Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals. It’s off to the NIT for the Crimson Tide for sure.

5:30 PM Update: Definitely a mixed bag of results here for bubble teams. Ole Miss was able to beat Vanderbilt, which puts it in the NCAA Tournament for the time being, and we think that that moves Kentucky out of the dance. The Wildcats do have the name recognition to get into the field of 68, but geez… Their resume really isn’t all that great, and they have some terrible losses. Maryland, playing at the same time, couldn’t quite get the job done against North Carolina in spite of the fact that it pushed the Tar Heels to the brink in the ACC Semifinals.

6:15 PM Update: Maryland is probably finished at this point. The team had a nice run through the ACC Tournament, beat the Blue Devils but losing to the Tar Heels on Saturday. Is it enough to keep the team in the field? Unfortunately for the Terps, two wins over the Dookies just isn’t enough to get into the NCAA Tournament.

9:15 PM Update: We feel as though the at large bids are all said and done with at this point, and we would be shocked if the 68 that we have in the field aren’t the 68 that are playing starting on Tuesday. Kentucky and Southern Miss are probably the first two teams left out of the field, followed by Virginia and Tennessee. We really don’t feel as though there is any argument to put these last teams out in the field at this point.