Posts Tagged ‘2013’

San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl 47 Predictions, Keys to Game, Picks
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Super Bowl 49ersThe San Francisco 49ers became the first team to lock up a spot in Super Bowl 47 when they knocked off the Atlanta Falcons 28-24 at the Georgia Dome. Now, they’re playing in the biggest game of the season, and we are set to make our Superbowl predictions and picks.  In this article we’ll discuss the keys to the game; as in what the 49ers need to do to win the Super Bowl.

Click Here For The 2013 NFL Playoff Bracket, the 2013 NFL Playoffs Schedule, and all of our NFL Playoff Game Previews

#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl 47 Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
When is the Super Bowl?: Sunday, February 3rd, 6:30 p.m. (ET)
Super Bowl TV Coverage: CBS

Key #1: 49ers have to come out firing & let C.K. orchestrate the offense from the start.
Early in the Falcons game, it appeared that Jim Harbaugh & Greg Roman were trying to out-think Atlanta defensive coordinator, Mike Nolan.  It seemed as if the 49ers assumed that all the focus would be on Kaepernick’s running ability out of the pistol formation.  On the very first play, the 49ers came out of the huddle, showed the pistol formation, and than quickly switched to a power-i before running their first play.  Perhaps this was their way of saying, “We’ll do what we want”.  But, it didn’t fool Atlanta’s defense at all.  A hand-off to Gore resulted in Falcon defenders filling holes and swarming to the football.  Everyone knows the 49ers intend to run the football between the tackles, regardless of how well Kaepernick slinging the rock.  If the Niners coaching staff really wanted to throw the Falcon defense off-guard, a 5-wide receiver set along with a no-huddle offense from the start really would have done the trick.  The Falcons were playing the run on every play in the first quarter, and the 49ers were playing right into their hands.  Due to the quick three-and-outs, Kaepernick wasn’t able to get comfortable orchestrating the offense until he was allowed to hit some receivers in stride and make some check downs.  Baltimore is going to do everything they can to show that San Francisco’s highly touted offensive front isn’t going to push them around in the running game (and they are going to try to rattle the young gunslinger).  The Ravens will be very aggressive  in doing so.  Therefore, making sure C.K. gets into a rhythm throwing the football early is important.  Not only will it surprise the Ravens defense, but it will also open things up for the Gore/James/Kap running attack trifecta.  It will also allow them to use the Pistol more often later on in the game.  Making the older Ray Lewis run around a little bit, so that he’s huffing and puffing, rather than screaming, will do wonders for the 49ers offense.

Key #2: 49ers secondary has to communicate and avoid allowing big plays down the field.
The one knock against the 49ers over the course of the last few weeks is that they’ve been giving up some big plays down the field.  Early in the Falcons game, a blown assignment by the 49ers secondary allowed Julio Jones to catch a wide open TD.  The Ravens proved in the AFC Championship Game that they can score using the big play, as they got off quite a few big plays in the second half against the Patriots. Baltimore likes to run a modified hurry up, and it has the potential to get a heck of a lot of snaps off if the defense can’t get off the field. Keeping a close eye on WR Torrey Smith down the field and Anquan Boldin over the middle will be very important.  When playing against any elite defense, most teams that have a big arm quarterback are going to take their shots down the field; hoping they can either make a play or get a flag.  If the 49ers can bat these deep ball shots down, they will force the Ravens into some early 3rd and longs and some mistakes.

Super Bowl Betting Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers -4
Baltimore Ravens +4
Over/Under 48.5
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Key #3: Someone has to get in the face of quarterback, Joe Flacco
Though we know that QB Joe Flacco has a history of being cool in the pocket, he has also had some games in which he has folded as well when he is under a lot of pressure. Matt Ryan was very comfortable early in the NFC Championship.  However, in the second half, they were able to get to him a little bit and force him into some mistakes.  Clearly the talent is there to get to Flacco.  DE Aldon Smith is one of the best pass rushers in the game and DT Justin Smith is a monster up front as well.  However, DT Isaac Sopoaga managed to get the only sack of the game against Atlanta. Two weeks ago, LB Patrick Willis had the only sack against QB Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Aldon Smith, had 19.5 sacks in his first 13 games of the season, but has not recorded a single sack in his last five games.  He seems to get them in bunches as he recorded 11 sacks over a 4 game span in the midway point of the season. Regardless, it doesn’t have to be Smith, but someone had better get a hand in Flacco’s face and knock him around a little bit.

Key #4: Other receivers have to step up aside from Michael Crabtree
Head Coach John Harbaugh isn’t a fool by any stretch of the imagination. He knows that WR Michael Crabtree is going to get the ball thrown his way quite a bit, as Crabtree really is the only outstanding receiver that the team has at its disposal. The Texas Tech Red Raider caught 15 passes for 176 yards and two TD in the playoffs thus far.  He was largely blanketed by a bevy of Atlanta defensive backs in the NFC Championship (opening things up for a big game from Vernon Davis). No matter what the Baltimore defense throws at Crabtree, he’ll get his catches, but someone else has to step it up. Don’t discount guys like WR Randy Moss and TE Delanie Walke. Though the two only combined for four catches and 66 yards, they were all in clutch spots for the offense. It’s not a matter of getting 100 yards out of Davis, Moss, or anyone else in the lineup, it’s just that a few guys need to make a few big plays to help Kaepernick win his first Superbowl.

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Key #5: The 49ers’ front seven absolutely cannot miss tackles
RB Ray Rice is going to be coming and coming strong at the San Francisco defense, and he forces as many missed tackles of linebackers as any running back in the league with his low center of gravity. TE Dennis Pitta and WR Anquan Boldin also have the ability to bowling over unsuspecting members of the secondary to boot. San Fran is one of the best tackling teams in football, and it comes all over the field. This is the second straight year that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has had his 49ers in the Top 5 in the league in tackles, and that has to hold true in the Super Bowl. If Rice is shaking tackles left and right, the Niners are going to be in some trouble. They have to continue to wrap up at the point of attack no matter who has the football. If they do that, Baltimore is going to have a heck of a time just trying to move the pigskin.

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Super Bowl Trends: Harbowl Ravens vs. 49ers Predictions, History

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Trends: Harbowl Ravens vs. 49ers Predictions, History
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Harbowl Super BowlTrying to beat the Super Bowl odds is never something that is easy to do, and that’s why there are a lot of amateurs that struggling with the Super Bowl lines every year. However, history could be very important in this duel between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens, and we are going to take the time to show you the most important Super Bowl betting trends for the game. Join us, as we analyze the “Harbowl” this year, as Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh square off against each other on the Super Bowl betting lines in the biggest game of the entire season.

Ravens vs. 49ers All-Time Series
2011: Ravens 16 – 49ers 6
2007: Ravens 9 – 49ers 7
2003: Ravens 44 – 49ers 6
1996: 49ers 38 – Ravens 20

There isn’t all that much history here between the 49ers and the Ravens, but the history that is there is rich with defensive showdowns. In the first ever “Harbowl” between San Fran’s Jim and Baltimore’s John, the Ravens got the best of the Niners on Thanksgiving Day in 2011. That was a game that was played between the 20s for the most part, and neither team that all that many chances to get points on the board. Even when they did have chances to score, there were a lot of field goals, and not a lot of chances at full touchdowns. The 49ers now have just a total of 19 points in their last three meetings with LB Ray Lewis and this remarkable Baltimore defense, which has stayed consistently remarkable over the course of the last several seasons.

History though, doesn’t really suggest that one of these teams has the extreme advantage over the other. Yes, Baltimore owns the 3-1 SU advantage in this series, but it has historically been a heck of a lot better than these 49ers have been. San Francisco, as a result, is 2-2 ATS in those games. Even the ‘total’ is split right down the line with two ‘overs’ and two ‘unders’ in spite of the fact that the 49ers have only scored more than seven points once in this series all-time, and that was back in 1996.

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Of late though, both of these teams have been understandably hot. They are a combined 5-0 SU and ATS here in the playoffs between them. The 49ers have been playing great ball of late. They have gone 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over the course of the nine games that QB Colin Kaepernick has started this year, and they have averaged 28.6 points per game in those outings. QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens have won and covered their last four meaningful games, as we aren’t going to count the Week 17 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals when both sets of starters were out of the lineup by halftime. Both of San Fran’s games have flown past the ‘total’ with relative ease here in the second season. In spite of the fact that Baltimore has scored at least 24 points in all of its games, two of the three have failed to reach the number.

Super Bowl Injury List, 49ers vs. Ravens Injury Report As Of 1/21

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Injury List, 49ers vs. Ravens Injury Report As Of 1/21
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Mario ManninghamOver the course of a 16-game regular season and three weeks of the playoffs, players are bound to get hurt. Injuries have kept some of the best players on teams out of the Super Bowl in the past, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to be keeping up to date the Superbowl 47 injury report to keep you abreast of the most important Super Bowl injury news and notes leading up to the big game.

The Baltimore Ravens had oodles have injuries over the course of the regular season to deal with this year. They were without LB Ray Lewis for the better part of three months, they had to deal with problems to men like S Bernard Pollard (three games), LB Dannell Ellerbe (three games), LB Jameel McClain (three games), DT Haloti Ngata (one game), DB LaDarius Webb (10 games plus the playoffs), and DE Terrell Suggs (8 games). However, at this point, the team is as healthy as it has been all season long, and it is going to be flying high into the Super Bowl on February 3rd.

The injuries that we have to discuss are all ones that have been around for quite some time. We’ve already mentioned that Webb is on IR with a torn ACL that has cost him over half the season. McClain is out for the year with a neck injury as well, though he was never put on IR. Aside from that though, at least as of the start of the week, there really is nothing to worry about from the standpoint of the Ravens.

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The 49ers have a ton of men that are listed as probable early on in the week on the injury report, but we aren’t even going to bother for anyone that we didn’t see with a real problem in the NFC Championship Game. We are mildly concerned over a shoulder injury that LB Aldon Smith has. He has been practicing very little over the course of the last couple of weeks, and perhaps that’s the reason that he doesn’t have a single sack in the last month and a half. We’ll definitely monitor this one, though we don’t see any way that Smith doesn’t give it a go for the full 60 minutes on February 3rd.

Again, relatively speaking, this has been a pretty darn healthy team, especially knowing that this is the end of the season. RB Brandon Jacobs proved to be useless to the Niners, and he has been suspended for the rest of the year and won’t travel with the team to the Bayou. WR Kyle Williams, the goat of last year’s NFC Championship Game is finished for the campaign with a knee injury. WR Mario Manningham is probably the most notable man on IR for the year for the 49ers, as he tore up his knee, leaving the team without a truly viable second option opposite of WR Michael Crabtree. And finally, RB Kendall Hunter has been done for the campaign since November with a torn Achilles tendon.

We’ll also keep an eye on the legal situation with Crabtree, who has gotten into a run-in with the law in recent days. However, he played in the NFC Championship Game, and we don’t figure there to be an issue with him playing in New Orleans either.

2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2013 NFL Playoff Bracket w/ NFL Playoff Schedule & Predictions
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2013 NFL PlayoffsThe 2013 NFL Playoffs are here, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are going to take a look at the 2013 NFL playoffs and make our Super Bowl 47 predictions. Don’t miss out, as our expert NFL handicappers take a look at all of the best teams in the league, which ones have a chance to go all the way, and which are still quite a ways away from getting the job done.

NFL Playoffs Bracket

Super Bowl 47
#2 San Francisco 49ers vs. #4 Baltimore Ravens

The 2013 Super Bowl 47 odds are set to go, and the 49ers and the Ravens are going to be involved in the Harbaugh Bowl. These two teams have both had long roads to get here to the Super Bowl, but they both did a remarkable job beating the NFL betting lines each and every step of the way. Baltimore had the significantly tougher road, beating the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots. They beat both Denver and New England on the road, and they did so in fine fashion both teams. Yes, one could make the argument that this team has gotten a bit lucky off of things like the tipped pass that was intercepted at the end of the AFC Championship Game and the 70-yard touchdown pass at Mile High to WR Jacoby Jones. On the other side of the field, we have the 49ers, who were favored in each of their last two games to get to this point. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh pushed all of the right buttons this year, especially when he decided to put QB Alex Smith on the bench in favor of the more nimble QB Colin Kaepernick. It seems like ancient history now though, as Kaepernick has torn up the Packers and the Falcons here in the second season. This should be a remarkable game between two teams that are 6-0 in the Super Bowl all-time between them.

Final NFL Playoff Picture (AFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Denver Broncos (13-3)
2: New England Patriots (12-4)
3: Houston Texans (12-4)
4: Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
5: Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
6: Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

AFC Playoff Schedule

AFC Wild Card Round
#5 Indianapolis Colts 9 @ #4 Baltimore Ravens 24 (Click Here For Colts @ Ravens Game Preview)
#6 Cincinnati Bengals 13 @ #3 Houston Texans 19 (Click Here For Bengals @ Texans Game Preview)

The first round of the playoffs is all set to go in the AFC, and the NFL matchups are quite intriguing. The 3/6 game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals is a rematch of the first round matchup last year between these two clubs. The difference this year though, is that Houston really comes into the playoffs struggling, while Cincinnati is on a high, quite the opposite of what we saw last year. The Texans have lost three of their last four games, and they went from a surefire lock for the No. 1 seed in the AFC to having to play in Wild Card Weekend. Of course, the team is a lot healthier this year than it was a campaign ago as well, knowing that QB Matt Schaub, and not QB TJ Yates will be throwing the ball all over the place. Cincinnati though, has one of the best defensive lines in the game, and it learned a lot last year with its youngsters, QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green. These two are going to try to pull off the upset this weekend. Click Here For Cincinnati vs. Houston NFL Playoffs Preview

The other battle is a big one as well, as the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts will square off at M&T Bank Stadium. This is the third time that these two teams have met in the playoffs, and those meetings occurred three years ago and three years prior to that. The Colts won both games. QB Andrew Luck will be on center stage in this, his first career playoff game, and he is going to try to go on the road and get the job done against a Baltimore team that has a great history of playing in the second season. QB Joe Flacco and the gang feel like they have the talent to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year, but there are some real questions about this defense in the end. This unit ranked in the 20s in most of the major defensive categories this year, something that you never, ever saw with this unit in the last decade or so. Click Here For Indianapolis vs. Baltimore NFL Playoffs Preview

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Mile High this year, as the Denver Broncos will host either the Bengals if they win, or the Colts/Ravens winner if Cincinnati fails. Houston will visit the No. 2 New England Patriots with a win in the first round of the playoffs, but if that the Texans lose, the winner of the Indianapolis/Baltimore game will head to Foxboro instead.

AFC Divisional Round
#3 Houston Texans 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 41 (Click Here For Texans @ Patriots Game Preview)
#4 Baltimore Ravens 38 @ #1 Denver Broncos 35 (Click Here For Broncos @ Ravens Game Preview)

The Texans might have lost three of their final four games in the regular season, but they ultimately still made it to the second round of the playoffs anyway when they knocked off the Bengals 19-13. This terrible stretch for the team started in Foxboro against the Patriots, but if there is a measure of revenge, this would be the time for the franchise to get it. There is no bigger moment in the history of the Houston franchise than this, and an upset would mean worlds to the club to get to the AFC Championship Game. New England has to be happy to have had the week off, but Head Coach Bill Belichick knows that this won’t be the easiest game in the world. It’s going to be a massive mismatch to see QB Matt Schaub against QB Tom Brady, but the Houston defense has to prove that the last meeting of these two teams was a farce. Obviously though, Schaub has to get the ball into the end zone, something that he has only done once in the last five games. The Houston offense only has two total TDs in the last four games, and that isn’t going to cut it. Click Here For Houston @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

We have another December rematch in the second round of the AFC playoffs as well when the Ravens take on the Broncos. That game wasn’t the prettiest for the visitors either, as the Ravens were beaten 34-17 in that game. What’s worse for Baltimore is that that game came at M&T Bank Stadium, and now, to keep its season going, it is going to have to go to the other side of the country and knock off the No. 1 team in the conference, fresh off of a bye week. QB Peyton Manning has accomplished a ton this year, but one of the games in which he really didn’t play at his best was the game against these Ravens. That being said though, he did play well and brought the team to the easy victory without much muss or fuss. We know that Manning can win games in the playoffs, but can he do it in Denver in an outdoor setting instead of doing it at home in the RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s going to be the big time question that has to be answered. QB Joe Flacco hasn’t had a problem getting here in the playoffs, but he has had a problem winning these big time games against the best teams in the AFC. This very well could be the last game of this era of Ravens football, knowing that LB Ray Lewis is retiring when this season is over with, and Baltimore is a heavy underdog and is not expected to challenge. Click Here For Baltimore @ Denver NFL Playoffs Preview

AFC Championship Game
#4 Baltimore Ravens 28 @ #2 New England Patriots 13 (Click Here For Ravens @ Patriots Game Preview)

For the second straight year, the Ravens and the Patriots are going to be playing against each other with the Lamar Hunt Trophy on the line. The winner will move on to Super Bowl 47, while the loser will have a long offseason to figure out what went wrong. QB Tom Brady and his Patriots are looking for some payback after losing 31-30 at M&T Bank Stadium back in September in a game that was decided by a last-second field goal by K Justin Tucker. Baltimore though, still has some revenge on its mind as well from losing the AFC Championship Game last year in this very building. Remember that WR Lee Evans had what would have been the game-winning touchdown pass in his hands before dropping it, and there was no excuse for K Billy Cundiff to miss a 32-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. There is a ton of emotion that is going to go into this game. It could be LB Ray Lewis’ last game. It could send Brady to a sixth Super Bowl, which would tie an NFL record for all players and would break the record for the most starts for a quarterback in the Super Bowl. It could be the game that validates the career of QB Joe Flacco. Or it could be just another game where the Ravens end up falling short of the ultimate goal, further making them the choke artists of the league. This should be a great game in Foxboro on Sunday. Click Here For Baltimore @ New England NFL Playoffs Preview

Final NFL Playoff Picture (NFC Playoff Bracket)
1: Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2: San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
3: Green Bay Packers (11-5)
4: Washington Redskins (10-6)
5: Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
6: Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

NFC Playoff Schedule

NFC Wild Card Round
#5 Seattle Seahawks 24 @ #4 Washington Redskins 14 (Click Here For Seahawks @ Redskins Game Preview)
#6 Minnesota Vikings 10 @ #3 Green Bay Packers 24 (Click Here For Vikings @ Packers Game Preview)

The NFC side of the playoffs took its twists and turns in Week 17, but matters are all set at this point. For the third time this season, and for the third time since the start of December, the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings are going to play against each other in the 3/6 game. RB Adrian Peterson will once again be the focal point, as he rushed for over 400 yards in two games against the Pack this year. Green Bay won the NFC North, earning the right to host this game, but it has to be smarting after losing last week at the Metrodome. The win put Minnesota into the second season and kept Green Bay from getting a first round bye. It’s a total mismatch between QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Christian Ponder, but these two teams played two great games against each other this year that could have gone either way. Click Here For Minnesota vs. Green Bay NFL Playoffs Preview

The Washington Redskins ended up earning the final playoff spot of the year by beating the Dallas Cowboys in the final Sunday Night Football game of the year, and now, they are going to reap the rewards. That was their seventh straight victory to end the season, and they needed that to win the NFC East. QB Robert Griffin III is clearly put together one of the best seasons that a rookie quarterback has ever had, but the man that he is going to be facing off against in this one, QB Russell Wilson threw for the most touchdowns in a single season for a rookie with 26. Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks really did a remarkable job this year, especially playing at home, where they ran the table and went 8-0. The problem? They went just 3-5 on the road, and they are going to have to win three more games on the road just to get to the Super Bowl. These two teams have played four straight games in Seattle in their meetings, including last year when the Skins pulled the upset. Click Here For Seattle vs. Washington NFL Playoffs Preview

The Atlanta Falcons have won the top seed in the NFC, and they are going to be waiting for the worst seed left remaining in the second season. Clear on the opposite coast, the San Francisco 49ers will be around to take on most likely the Packers, or the winner of the Seahawks/Redskins game.

NFC Divisional Round
#3 Green Bay Packers 31 @ #2 San Francisco 49ers 45 (Click Here For Packers @ 49ers Game Preview)
#5 Seattle Seahawks @ #1 Atlanta Falcons (Click Here For Seahawks @ Falcons Game Preview)

The second round of the playoffs will open up when the Packers and the 49ers do battle. This is a rematch of a Week 1 game that went the way of the Niners. However, QB Alex Smith was the quarterback in that one, and QB Colin Kaepernick is now the man calling the shots. The Packers were forced to throw the ball all game long, as they had to play the whole game from behind. This time around though, both of these teams are coming into the proceedings hot with a lot more on the line. There is going to be no degree of sneaking up on anyone. The winner of this one knows that it is going to have a good chance of hosting the NFC Championship Game, so the stakes are going to be even higher than they normally would be for a playoff game this early in the postseason. Click Here For Green Bay vs. San Francisco NFL Playoffs Preview

A Seattle team that is as hot as could be is going to take on an Atlanta team that has a god awful playoff history to start Sunday’s NFL playoffs action. The Seahawks have the second longest winning streak in the conference right now at six, and they have covered five of those six. The Falcons need a win in the playoffs more than any other team in the second saeson. They haven’t won a game since 2004 in the postseason, and QB Matt Ryan has a terrible history here in the playoffs. Seattle is the only team that went on the road and won a game in the playoffs in the first round, and it is going to have to fly from Seattle to DC back to Seattle and then to Atlanta for this one. It should be a very interesting game for sure, and it is expected to be the closest of the four playoff games in the Divisional Round of the playoffs Click Here For Seattle vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

NFC Championship Game
#2 San Francisco 49ers 28 @ #1 Atlanta Falcons 24 (Click Here For 49ers @ Falcons Game Preview)

The 2013 NFC Championship Game should be a doozy this week. There aren’t many neutral NFL fans that would say that the Falcons are the better of the two teams that are going to be on the field. They do have home field advantage though, and that could go a long way, especially since the 49ers are playing a long way away from home. San Francisco has to get over the fact that it blew it in the NFC title game a campaign ago at home against the New York Giants, but this would be the way to get some sweet revenge. QB Colin Kaepernick put together one of the biggest games that a quarterback has ever had in a postseason game, especially for a quarterback that was making his postseason debut. That was at home, though. This one is on the road, and it comes in a hostile environment. The Falcons put together 30 minutes of championship football and 30 minutes of suspect football against the Seahawks. If we see the Falcons that played the first half against Seattle for the full 60 minutes, they’ll be in the Super Bowl. If we see the Falcons that played the second half against Seattle, this could be a brutal showing in the Georgia Dome, and all of the haters will be right back on the case of Head Coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan. Click Here For San Francisco vs. Atlanta NFL Playoffs Preview

AFC Championship Prop Picks: Ravens vs. Patriots Predictions 1/20

January 20th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on AFC Championship Prop Picks: Ravens vs. Patriots Predictions 1/20
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Tom BradyThe New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens are set to continue the 2013 NFL playoffs, and as a part of our analysis of the AFC Championship Game betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial clash.

Joe Flacco Over/Under 34.5 Pass Attempts: Flacco attempted 523 passes in his first 15 games of the season (we’ll throw out Week 17 when he played just two drives against the Cincinnati Bengals), an average of 34.9 pass attempts per game. Over the course of the last several weeks since Jim Caldwell took over as the team’s offensive coordinator, the run game has been a significantly bigger part of the game. So forget about the fact that Joe Cool put the ball in the air 39 times when these two met the first time, and forget about that average. Instead, look at the fact that Flacco threw the ball 34 times last week against the Denver Broncos… in a game which lasted over five quarters and the team played catch up for a good chunk of the second half. The Baltimore defense is just on the field for too many plays right now, 87 in each of the last two weeks, for Flacco to get to this type of a number of pass attempts. Joe Flacco Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)

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Will Ray Rice Score a Touchdown?: This seems to be an odd line. Rice only at -140 to score a touchdown? That basically insinuates that he is only going to score in nine of the 16 games in the regular season, and about 10 of the 18 that he has played this year including the playoffs. Again, throw out Week 17, and Rice has 10 TDs scored in eight games this year. Still, one of those touchdowns came against these Patriots, and it feels as though the team has to get close enough to the goal line for Rice to get in. Remember that last year, Rice had 15 total touchdowns in his 16 games, and we think that he has a lot better than a 60/40 chance to find pay dirt against a sometimes suspect New England defense. Ray Rice To Score a Touchdown (-140)

Ray Lewis Over/Under 9.5 Tackles: We apologize to the big man out of Miami, but asking for Ray Ray to get to 10 tackles in this game is tough. A lot of the tackles made against the Patriots are done so in open space and are more often done by safeties than anything else. (For that reason, Ed Reed Over 5.5 Tackles is probably a great play.) Yes, Lewis has had 13 and 17 tackles in his two playoff games, and yes, he had at least 10 tackles in four of his six games before getting injured, but a lot of that came against teams that prefer to run the football. This is more of a high octane passing attack that gets the ball out on the edges and doesn’t run the ball inside quite as much. Lewis could ultimately suffer when push comes to shove. Ray Lewis Under 9.5 Tackles (-105)

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Over/Under 1.5: Brady isn’t going to openly run the ball all that much, and he only had 23 rushing attempts all year long. That being said, especially in these short yardage situations when the team is running the hurry up offense, Brady has been known to get up under center and sneak it straight forward. He faked that a couple of times against the Texans last week and get the ball on the edge to his running backs instead, but we know that the option is still there for him to do so. The numbers suggest that Brady will end up with exactly zero yards rushing. We think that he is going to end up with at least a few yards when push comes to shove. Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Will Shane Vereen Score a Touchdown?: Let’s be realistic about Vereen here for a second. He only scored four TDs all year long in the regular season. Yes, Brady loves to keep the offense out there in the form that it is in, and yes, Vereen did score three times last week and caught some big time passes out of the backfield, but he still has five games with a touchdown scored out of 14 games including the regular season, and that just isn’t going to cut it with us. Get last week’s game out of your mind and play this one by the numbers. Shane Vereen To Not Score a Touchdown (-135)

Ray Rice (-4.5) Rushing Yards vs. Stevan Ridley: It’s an interesting comparison for sure. Ridley rushed for more yards in the regular season, accounting for 1,263 yards on the ground, and he is the one going against a defense that allows a lot more yards on the ground than the Patriots do. Of course, what we saw last week out of the Texans is that RB Arian Foster was able to move the ball against this unit on the ground when he was given the opportunity to do so, especially as the game wore on. Don’t think that Caldwell wasn’t looking at that and thinking that he had some real opportunities. Ridley isn’t also necessarily the only back that is going to touch the football. Rice will split some with RB Bernard Pierce, but he is still the horse that the team rides upon. Go with Rice here to outdo Ridley with an experience-driven game.

Who Will Score First New England Touchdown?: This is a sneaky one for sure. The team scored 59 touchdowns this year in the regular season, and Brady threw 34 of them, so there is a good chance that it’s going to be a passing score. TE Aaron Hernandez is the receiving favorite at 4 to 1, but there are a lot of other great options as well. But instead, the man that we are going to be keying in on is Brady. Remember how we talked about his rushing yards earlier? Brady had four rushing scores this year, which is only two fewer than WR Wes Welker (who is 9/2) and the same as WR Brandon Lloyd (13 to 2). We know we’re losing more often than not, but it’s still a great play to make on Brady to score first for the Pats more than one out of 15 times. Tom Brady To Score First New England Touchdown (+1500)

NFC Championship Prop Picks: 49ers vs. Falcons Predictions 1/20

January 17th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFC Championship Prop Picks: 49ers vs. Falcons Predictions 1/20
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Atlanta FalconsThe Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers are set to continue the 2013 NFL playoffs, and as a part of our analysis of the NFC Championship Game betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for this crucial clash.

Colin Kaepernick Over/Under 62.5 Rushing Yards: Don’t do it! It’s a trap! Kaepernick shocked the world last week by rushing for 181 yards and two TDs against the Packers, and now, he is going to be going against a defense that was torched by a very similar QB Russell Wilson. Remember folks, last week was the highest scoring divisional round in NFL history, and it really wasn’t all that close. What Wilson and Kaepernick did was out of this world, and they just can’t be expected to have repeat performances. Sure, this could be problematic, knowing that ultimately, Kaepernick only needs to do a bit more than a third of what he did last week. However, look back at the raw numbers. Since Kaepernick jumped into the starting lineup, he has tallied 10, 27, 84, 53, 28, 31, 5, and 181 yards in his eight games. Even by averages, that’s only 52.4 yards per game, and when you take out the last two games, both of which we consider to be outliers, that number is still only at 38.8 yards per game. Think about this another way. The over/under here is 62.5, and we’ll just say that it’s a 50/50 proposition and this ends up being the average that Kaepernick were to have over the course of a 16-game season. That would leave him at exactly 1,000 yards. Know how many quarterbacks have rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season? One. Michael Vick. Once. In all of these years of NFL history. Don’t get suckered into what you saw last week.Colin Kaepernick Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Will Frank Gore Score a Touchdown?: The Atlanta defense only gets credit for its scoring average, but it did allow four second half touchdowns last week against the Seahawks. If the Niners get into the end zone even three times, Gore is almost sure to score at least one of them. He found the end zone in 10 of his 17 games this year, and we really like these percentages at this point. Though Gore didn’t score San Fran’s final short touchdown of the game against the Packers (Anthony Dixon did), we still think that there is a great chance that Gore will find his way into the Promised Land at some point during this game. Frank Gore To Score a Touchdown (+100)

Michael Crabtree Over/Under 85.5 Receiving Yards: Here’s the problem that Crabtree has in this game: He’s going to be the only receiver that has a chance, and he is going to be matched up with a great corner in DB Asante Samuel, who has the ability to shut down even the best of receivers in the biggest of games. The only thing factor that scares us here is that Kaepernick has really only had eyes for Crabtree over the course of the last several weeks. He has had five games with at least 93 yards and five games with at least seven receptions in his last six games, all of which were started by Kaepernick, and he hadn’t put up more than seven receptions in a single game with QB Alex Smith calling the shots. Still, we think that this is just too high of a number for Crabtree to reach more often than not with a great corner on his back. Michael Crabtree Under 85.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Vernon Davis Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards: This could be the best play on the board, and it could be the worst play on the board. If you believe in what you saw last week when TE Zach Miller absolutely lit up this secondary, this is a fantastic play to make. If you believe what you have seen over the course of the last several weeks when Davis was totally shut down and often held to just one reception (or no receptions), maybe this isn’t so smart. But here’s what we do know historically about Davis: He might have had a bad season, but he averaged 55.7 yards per game over his previous three seasons before this year. He’s still the second leading receiver on the team, and he still is a great option to use over the middle. It’s tough to throw against these Atlanta corners. It’s not always as tough to take advantage of the intermediate throws into the middle of the field. If Davis ever had a good game in him, this would be the game for that to happen. Vernon Davis Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Matt Ryan Over/Under 280.5 Passing Yards: Here’s where we’re using some common sense. Matty Ice just hasn’t been all that good in the playoffs in his career, and even last week against the Seahawks, he wasn’t all that special. He’s going against a secondary now that ranked fourth in the league, allowing just over 200 passing yards per game. Ryan threw for 250 yards last week against the Seahawks, most of which came in the first two and a half quarters. That was the only time in his career in which he threw for more than 200 yards in a postseason game. This probably is going to be another one of these struggles for Ryan from start to finish. Matt Ryan Under 280.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Roddy White Over/Under 79.5 Receiving Yards: Same sort of concept. If Matty Ice doesn’t thrown for 280, White probably isn’t getting to 80. White has been all over the place anyway. He had 76 yards last week against the Seahawks and just 42 the week before against Tampa Bay. He had seven games this year with at least 100 yards, but all but one of the rest of his games featured 76 yards or fewer. It’s possible that White ends up having a great day, but it just isn’t all that likely. Consider that two of his 100+ yard games came against the lousy Panthers, one came against the lousy Saints, one came against the lousy Cowboys, and one came against the lousy Lions. Against some of the better sets of corners in the league? 38 yards against the Eagles, 57 yards against the Bucs, 42 yards against the Bucs the second time, 76 yards against the Seahawks… It just doesn’t look all that good for White.

Julio Jones Over/Under 72.5 Receiving Yards: And here we are again. White has had six straight games with 74 yards or fewer, and he has had 71 or fewer in five of those six. A deep play threat, you know that Jones is going to be blanketed with two deep coverage for most of the game against the 49ers, and that’s not going to help out his cause either. The only way Ryan gets to 280 is by hitting Jones deep. If that doesn’t happen, the former member of the Alabama Crimson Tide isn’t getting to 73 either.

Ravens @ Patriots AFC Championship Game Predictions, Picks 1/20

January 13th, 2013 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Ravens @ Patriots AFC Championship Game Predictions, Picks 1/20
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AFC Championship GameThe 2013 NFL playoff picks are going to be difficult to make, and in this one, the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots are set to do battle with one another. Check out our Ravens vs. Patriots predictions and the keys to the AFC Championship Game for Baltimore vs. New England.

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#4 Baltimore Ravens @ #2 New England Patriots
Ravens vs. Patriots Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Ravens vs. Patriots Date/Time: Sunday, January 20th, 6:00 p.m. (ET)
Ravens vs. Patriots On TV: CBS

Key #1: The Ravens need to figure out how to keep from being on the field for 80+ snaps
There are only so many snaps that a defense can be on the field for. The Baltimore defense has been on the field for exactly 87 plays over the course of the last two weeks against the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. The team only allowed three field goals against the Colts, and though there were 35 points allowed to the Broncos, 14 of those points were allowed on special teams. Conceding 21 points in over five quarters on the road to the No. 1 team in the AFC is nothing to be ashamed of. Though emotion has gotten this team thus far, and LB Ray Lewis has been tremendous in his farewell tour, there is still only so much that can be asked of for a team that allowed 350.8 yards and 21.5 points per game this year. QB Tom Brady is the master of running play after play and taking advantage of a tired defense. He did it all last week against the Houston Texans, and he might be able to take advantage of that against the Ravens as well. New England ran 77 plays when these two teams met the first time. If it does that again, Baltimore is going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble. If the Ravens can get the job done on defense and keep control of the ball on the ground with RB Ray Rice, this could be a very interesting game.

Ravens @ Patriots Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens +9
New England Patriots -9
Over/Under 51
Click Here to Bet Your Ravens vs. Patriots Picks!

Key #2: The Patriots have to get over all of their injuries
Brady might be healthy and ready to get back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year, but he doesn’t quite have the healthiest team in the world around him. TE Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the year with his second forearm injury of the campaign, and RB Danny Woodhead might be out of the lineup as well. Granted, last week, we saw RB Shane Vereen step up with three total touchdowns, and RB Stevan Ridley had himself a great game, too. Ridley only had 37 yards on 13 carries when these two teams met the first time around, and both Woodhead, RB Brandon Bolden, and WR Julian Edelman were the three offensive touchdown scorers. Bolden will likely have to suit if Woodhead sits, and Edelman’s season is said and done with. All of a sudden, there is a huge difference from entering last week’s game when the Pats were as healthy as they have been all season long, and now when they have a few vital injuries that could prove to be costly. Just about everyone is going to be on notice this week to get into the lineup for New England, and whomever it is that is out there is going to have to be at his best beat the Ravens.

Key #3: Joe Cool has to stay calm and continue to deliver the big time throws
QB Joe Flacco ended up with a raw deal last year. He is still looked upon as the man that is never going to take his team to a Lombardi Trophy, yet in the AFC Championship Game, he still played his heart out. On a day when RB Ray Rice and RB Ricky Williams combined for just 89 yards on 27 carries without a touchdown, and on a day where the weather was awful and the New England defense was swarming, Joe Cool threw for 306 yards and two TDs against one pick. What’s worse for Flacco is that he delivered the ball right on the money that would have won the game if it weren’t dropped by WR Lee Evans, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he would have won the game in overtime had K Billy Cundiff not missed that chip shot of a field goal attempt. Over the course of the last two weeks, Flacco has thrown for 613 yards and five TDs without tossing a pick, and the argument could be made that it is the best stretch of football that he has played in his entire career in the postseason. If that continues, the Ravens will have a shot at winning once again. If it doesn’t continue and Flacco resorts back into the quarterback that is largely known for blowing it when the games count the most, Baltimore has no chance.

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