Posts Tagged ‘College Football Odds’

Rose Bowl Odds & Predictions – Wisconsin vs. Stanford 1/1/13

December 31st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Rose Bowl Odds & Predictions – Wisconsin vs. Stanford 1/1/13
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Rose Bowl 2013Our 2013 bowl predictions continue on Tuesday, January 1st with the Rose Bowl, and we are set to make our Rose Bowl predictions, tips, and keys to the game for the duel between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Stanford Cardinal.

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

2013 Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal
2013 Rose Bowl Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
2013 Rose Bowl Date/Time: Tuesday, January 1st, 5:00 p.m. (ET)
2013 Rose Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Key #1: The Badgers have to prove that they are a lot better than an 8-5 team
It almost seems like an insult that an 8-5 team is playing in the Rose Bowl this year. Granted, we know that the only reason that Wisconsin even had the chance to play in the Granddaddy of them All this year is because of the way that the Big Ten happened to shake out with both the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Ohio State Buckeyes on bowl probation. It’s tough to say that this is your average 8-5 team, though. The team lost its five games this year by a combined 19 points, and all but one of those losses came against teams that went on to win at least nine games. And, one of those losses against the Nebraska Cornhuskers was avenged in the Big Ten Championship Game. The schedule actually ended up being a lot tougher than we thought at the outset of the year, and there is a real chance for Wisky to prove that it is worthy of finishing ranked in the Top 25 if it can pull off this upset. There’s a reason that this team is playing in its third straight Rose Bowl in spite of the fact that it has used six different quarterbacks in that stretch.

Rose Bowl Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
Wisconsin Badgers +5.5
Stanford Cardinal -5.5
Over/Under 47.5
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Key #2: The offensive line for the Badgers and the defensive line for the Cardinal have to put on shows against the other
This is a heck of a battle between two units that are just flat out awesome. The offensive line for the Badgers is always one of the best in the nation, and this year has been no exception. In spite of the fact that the team has absolutely no passing game whatsoever, this OL just continues to be one of the best in the nation. RB Montee Ball, RB James White, and RB Melvin Gordon are great, but they wouldn’t get to 3,099 yards combined without a great front five. These three backs averaged 6.14 yards per carry this year, and that doesn’t happen for even the best backs in the game without an outstanding line. The defensive front for Stanford doesn’t get much help from the linebackers in the form of blitzes, but that doesn’t make this group ineffective by any stretch of the imagination. The Cardinal allowed just 88.0 yards per game this year on the ground, and that was the third best mark in the entire nation. Whichever team wins the battle in the trenches is going to be the team that has the upper hand in this game.

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Key #3: One of these teams has to produce some form of a passing game
The Badgers have been through a ton of quarterbacks this year. QB Danny O’Brien simply stunk, and he was done after just a few games this year. After that, QB Joel Stave took over and completed 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,104 yards before getting hurt. Now, it’s up to QB Curt Phillips, who has started the last three games for Wisky. The team hasn’t played all that well offensively with Phillips in the lineup, and probably for a good reason. He’s a senior that had only thrown 12 passes in his career prior to this year without throwing a touchdown. On the other side of the field, Stanford has quarterback issues as well. QB Josh Nunes completed just 52.8 percent of his passes and threw seven picks against 10 scores before Head Coach David Shaw pulled the plug on him. Now, it’s up to QB Kevin Hogan, who is the future of the Stanford offense to get the job done. A highly touted recruit, Hogan hasn’t disappointed, but he hasn’t been asked to do much. He mostly throws very simple passes and gets the job done with his legs, which is why his completion percentage is so high at 72.9 percent. That being said, one of these teams badly needs to come up with a great game from their quarterback, and whichever one comes up with it will have the better chance of beating the college football betting odds in this one.

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South Carolina vs. Michigan Bowl Game Picks for Outback Bowl 1/1

December 31st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on South Carolina vs. Michigan Bowl Game Picks for Outback Bowl 1/1
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Outback Bowl 2013The X’s and O’s of the Outback Bowl predictions aren’t shared by many expert handicappers, but here at Bankroll Sports, we are giving up all of our insight and telling you all of the keys to the game for the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Michigan Wolverines. The Outback Bowl picks are some of the hardest to make this year of all of the bowl games, so don’t miss out on all of our South Carolina vs. Michigan predictions!

2013 Outback Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Michigan Wolverines
2013 Outback Bowl Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
2013 Outback Bowl Date/Time: Tuesday, January 1st, 1:00 p.m. (ET)
2013 Outback Bowl On TV: ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Someone has to figure out how to get a hat on Jadeveon Clowney
Short of LB Manti Te’o for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, there probably isn’t a defensive player in the land that is more feared than DE Jadeveon Clowney is for the Gamecocks. If you didn’t believe in him in the first 11 games of his freshman campaign, you had to become a believer after he picked up 4.5 sacks against QB Tajh Boyd and the Clemson Tigers. That was a game in which Clowney absolutely single handedly put away one of the best offenses in the country without really all that much help or all that much need for help. Michigan has had problems shutting down some of the best defensive ends that it has seen this year, and the offensive line is going to be under tons of pressure in this one. Clowney’s presence is going to open up the ability for some other blitzers or interior linemen to get clean runs at the Wolverines’ quarterbacks as well. Neutralize Clowney, and at least there’s a chance. Don’t do it, and he is going to run roughshod on this offense and have a showcase of a game.

Outback Bowl Odds at BetRevolution Sportsbook
South Carolina Gamecocks -4.5
Michigan Wolverines +4.5
Over/Under 47.5
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Key #2: The OL for the Gamecocks has to pave some holes for the running game
For as great as the South Carolina defense is, the offense ranks 66th or worse in virtually every major offensive category. Some of that is the fact that the SEC schedule has been a nightmare once again this season, but part of that is because the offensive line for the Gamecocks just hasn’t been as good as it usually is. Case in point? Before he was injured, RB Marcus Lattimore averaged just 4.6 yards per carry this year. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a sophomore. Take out Lattimore’s production, and the offensive line for the Gamecocks averaged just 3.31 yards per carry. That isn’t going to cut it in this game against the Wolverines, especially knowing that they have excelled at times stopping teams from running the football. It’s not necessarily about what RB Kenny Miles and RB Mike Davis can do, but it is about what the offensive line is able to pave out when push comes to shove.

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Key #3: The Michigan offense has to keep this SC defense guessing
It has just become too predictable over the course of the last few games of the season for the Michigan offense. The team is very likely to run the football with QB Denard Robinson taking the snap, and it is very likely to throw it with QB Devin Gardner doing the honors. Instead, there should be more of lining up these two men all over the field. They did combine to throw for 2,300+ yards this year and averaged over nine yards per pass attempt, but a lot of that was trickery. Robinson rushed for 1,166 yards, though most of those yards came as a scrambler or a Wildcat pivot. Some came at running back, and some too, came as a wide receiver on sweeps. Robinson also caught a couple of passes for 24 yards as well. Gardner isn’t as mobile of a quarterback as Robinson is, but he did have 77 rushing yards and caught 16 passes for 266 yards earlier in the year. Perhaps lining them both up on the outside and letting someone like WR Roy Roundtree or WR Jeremy Gallon taking snaps wouldn’t be a bad idea. The gimmicks aren’t going to work all the time, but they could work some, and that’s what it will take to get a few past this top class SEC defense that is one of the better units in America.

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2013 Capital One Bowl Predictions & Picks: Nebraska vs. Georgia 1/1

December 31st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2013 Capital One Bowl Predictions & Picks: Nebraska vs. Georgia 1/1
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Capital One Bowl 20132013 Capital One Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the Georgia Bulldogs and the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Join us for our Capital One Bowl keys to the game and our Nebraska vs. Georgia predictions.

2013 Capital One Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2013 Capital One Bowl Location: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
2013 Capital One Bowl Date/Time: Tuesday, January 1st, 1:00 p.m. (ET)
2013 Capital One Bowl On TV: ABC

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Taylor Martinez has to get over his poor history in big time games
For all of the pomp and circumstance that came with QB Taylor Martinez to Lincoln, he really hasn’t figured out how to live up to the hype that he built for himself out of high school and in the very beginning of his collegiate career. In this, his junior year, Martinez was supposed to become a more accomplished quarterback. He did set career highs for passing yards, completion percentage, TDs, and quarterback rating, and he had a great year as a rusher as well. However, the dude has to learn how to throw the football in a big time game, and doing so against the vaunted Georgia defense is not a good way to learn on the job. Martinez did rush for 140 yards and two TDs in the Big Ten Championship Game, but he also threw for just 184 yards and two picks on just a 51.5% completion percentage. In two bowl games, Martinez has gone just 17-of-25 for 169 yards with two TDs and two picks through the air with 60 yards on the ground. Take away the two picks, and those are great numbers for just one game, but this is two games that we’re talking about. Martinez is developing the moniker of being a quarterback that can’t play in the clutch, and if he lives up to that in this one, the Huskers stand absolutely no chance.

Capital One Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
Georgia Bulldogs -8.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers +8.5
Over/Under 60.5
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Key #2: Aaron Murray has to show no fear to throw into the teeth of this secondary
To say that we think that the Cornhuskers are overrated in the secondary is a bit of an understatement. Yes, this unit ranked No. 1 in the land against the rush at 148.2 yards per game allowed this year, but in truth, who in the heck did the Huskers play that has a passing game? QB Brett Hundley threw for over 300 yards and four TDs in what probably amounted to be the best quarterback that the Children of the Corn played against all year long, and that’s a good sign if you’re QB Aaron Murray. Murray has been playing against some of the best defenses in the game all year long in the SEC, and he has never backed down from a challenge. There isn’t a throw that the sophomore can’t make, and he threw for 3,458 yards and 31 TDs with three more on the ground. That’s tremendous efficiency to say the least. Murray has to stick with his guns. He won’t be asked to put the ball in the air 40 times in this one, but he’ll need to make a dozen big throws or so in traffic. We have no doubt that he’ll get the job done on those throws, but he has to do so to make sure that the Dawgs loosen up the front seven.

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Key #3: The Nebraska defense has to avoid literally getting run over
The Wisconsin Badgers rushed for 539 yards against the Cornhuskers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Ohio State Buckeyes rumbled for 371 when they welcomed Nebraska to Columbus earlier in the campaign. In those two games, the Huskers allowed a total of 133 points and an average of 9.3 yards per carry. Both games had the same type of feeling to them. A 31-yard run by QB Braxton Miller opened up the floodgates for a huge second half for the Buckeyes in which they had three TD runs of at least 16 yards. RB Melvin Gordon rumbled in from 56 yards out right at the beginning of the Big Ten title game, and there ended up being five touchdown runs that covered at least 10 yards in that game for the Badgers. This defense proved that it had the goods to stop the run against the rest of the country this year, as the rest of the teams in the land averaged just 147.5 yards per game. However, as Big Red has proven, you can break their will. Do that, and this one is going to be a romp in favor of UGA.

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Gator Bowl Predictions – Mississippi State vs. Northwestern 1/1/13

December 31st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Gator Bowl Predictions – Mississippi State vs. Northwestern 1/1/13
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Gator Bowl LogoOur 2013 bowl predictions continue on Tuesday, January 1st with the Gator Bowl, and we are set to make our Gator Bowl predictions, tips, and keys to the game for the duel between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Northwestern Wildcats.

2013 Gator Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Northwestern Wildcats
2013 Gator Bowl Location: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
2013 Gator Bowl Date/Time: Tuesday, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
2013 Gator Bowl On TV: ESPN2, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: The Wildcats have to get Kain Kolter involved in all facets of the game
QB Kain Kolter is really a quarterback in name only. He is the prototypical “Slash” type of player, and he’ll line up against anyone in any position on the field. He’s just that great of an athlete. Kolter isn’t the best passer in the world, but he will take some snaps under center and in the shotgun and throw the ball. He had 796 passing yards with eight TDs and just two picks, but at this point, it is almost a bit more of a gimmick for him to throw the ball than anything else. Still, he is the Wildcat quarterback and is quick as the wind, and his 12 rushing touchdowns this year were no mistake. He had 820 yards as well and averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and that number includes all of the times that he was sacked as well. Kolter was also frequently split out wide at the receiver position as well. He caught 16 passes for 169 yards on the outside. This is the type of man that really can mess with the game plan that the Bulldogs have defensively, and the SEC reps have to be prepared to see anything and everything out of Kolter.

Gator Bowl Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
Mississippi State Bulldogs +1.5
Northwestern Wildcats -1.5
Over/Under 53.5
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Key #2: Venric Mark has to have a big time game
Those in Evanston really thought that Mark should have been considered for the Heisman Trophy at some points this year. Just a junior, Mark is going to have another chance to flash his skills next year. He had 213 carries for 1,310 yards on the ground in his primary trade, but he also proved to be a decent receiver with 101 yards and a great return man as well. All told, Mark ended the season with the most all-purpose yards in the Big Ten with 2,048, and he is going to have the chance to get the ball in his hands a solid 20-25 times in this game between offense and special teams. The Mississippi State defense is going to have to be all over the field, knowing exactly where Mark is with the football, because one misstep, and the junior could be off to the races. This is the man that has the ability to blow this game out of proportion if the Wildcats get ahead.

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Key #3: Tyler Russell has to take care of the football and hit some big plays to Chad Bumphis
Northwestern had a defense this year that made some big time plays against the run, but this secondary is absolutely suspect at best. The Cats ranked just 97th in the country, allowing 261.6 passing yards per game, and that came against a Big Ten conference that just didn’t have all that many great passers in it this year. The time is clearly here for QB Tyler Russell to be a playmaker in this, the final game of his junior season. An ankle injury has slowed down Russell just a bit, but there is a clear difference in his stats between his wins and his losses. In wins this year, Russell threw for 19 TDs and just one pick. In four losses, he had three scores and five INTs. Those latter numbers just aren’t going to cut it, and it is a clear indication that this team is only going to go as far as Russell takes it. WR Chad Bumphis is the big play man and the favored receiver that Russell has to work with, and if he makes some big time plays, as he has done sporadically over his whole career in Starkville, the Bulldogs are going to have a real chance at the mild upset.

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Purdue vs. Oklahoma State Analysis: 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl 1/1

December 31st, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Purdue vs. Oklahoma State Analysis: 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl 1/1
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Heart of Dallas Bowl LogoThe 2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl picks are going to be difficult to make, as the Purdue Boilermakers and Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to do battle with one another in a Big XII vs. Big Ten battle. Check out our Heart of Dallas Bowl predictions and the keys to the game for Purdue vs. Oklahoma State.

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2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl Location: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX
2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl Date/Time: Tuesday, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
2013 Heart of Dallas Bowl Television Coverage: ESPNU, Watch ESPN

Key #1: The Boilermakers have to believe that they can keep up
We have seen this time and time again in Oklahoma State games. The Cowboys have the goods to race right out of the blocks and put a ton of points on the board in bunches. However, they also have a defense this year that allowed 285.7 passing yards and 29.4 points per game as well. Teams like the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners had success trying to move the ball up and down the field against this team, and the Boilermakers have to believe that they can do that as well. There really isn’t much in the way of tangible stats that suggest that the Boilers can hang in this game, as there isn’t a receiver with even 700 yards or a rusher with even 800 yards, and even the quarterback play has been suspect all year long. However, it all looked just as bad for the Minnesota Golden Gophers of the Big Ten, and they were able to stick around in a very comparable game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Okie State will go on a 21-0 run at some point in this game in all likelihood. It’s just a matter of how the Boilermakers respond to that adversity.

Heart of Dallas Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Purdue Boilermakers +17
Oklahoma State Cowboys -17
Over/Under 70
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Key #2: The Cowboys have to prove that they can win a close one
Maybe this will end up being a close game. Maybe it won’t. But if it is a close call, Head Coach Mike Gundy has to be a bit cautious about how his team finishes games. There was a chance to beat both the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners in the last two weeks of the year, but both games were ultimately lost. The Kansas State Wildcats were right there with the Cowboys for the full 60 minutes and ultimately won by two touchdowns, while the Texas Longhorns were able to come to Stillwater and win a controversial 41-36 game. There were only five games all year long that were decided by two touchdowns or fewer that Okie State played in, and the men in white and orange were on the wrong end of all of those games. Whether it be an untimely penalty, a mistake of a throw, a botched snap… Something has always kept the Pokes from winning those close ones, and this is going to be a game to be careful with for sure.

Key #3: Akeem Shavers absolutely has to score at least one touchdown
Here’s a heck of a stat for all of you Purdue fans that has to give you some cause for hope in this game. RB Akeem Shavers had six games this year in which he rushed for a touchdown. The team went 6-0 in those games. There were six games this year in which he didn’t rush for a touchdown. The Boilers went 0-6 in those games. Oh sure, it’s going to take a heck of a lot more than just one rushing touchdown from the Boilermakers’ top running back to have any chance of winning the Heart of Dallas Bowl, but it’s a good start. Figure that Purdue has to figure out how to score at least three touchdowns offensive in this game to have a chance, and we have to think that for that to happen, Shavers is going to have to find the end zone at least once, and potentially a few more times than that to ultimately give the Boilers a fighting chance of staying in this game.

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LSU vs. Clemson Predictions & Analysis: 2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl 12/31

December 30th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on LSU vs. Clemson Predictions & Analysis: 2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl 12/31
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Chick-Fil-A Bowl 2012The 2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl picks are going to be difficult to make, as the LSU Tigers and Clemson Tigers are set to do battle with one another in a SEC vs. ACC battle. Check out our Chick-Fil-A Bowl predictions and the keys to the game for LSU vs. Clemson.

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2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers
2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl Location: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 31st, 7:30 p.m. (ET)
2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl Television Coverage: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Key #1: LSU has to figure out how to get over last year’s debacle
The Tigers were the undefeated No. 1 team in the country last year when they laid the biggest egg of the season when they were beaten 21-0 by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Head Coach Les Miles has done remarkably well in bowl games historically, and the team is 11-4 since 1995 in bowl games. Last year’s loss was a blip on the radar, though a big blip at that, knowing that it cost the team a shot at winning the whole enchilada, and it came against an arch rival. This year’s game against Alabama was also lost, and the moniker is starting to build that this team can’t win the biggest of the big games. Though a number of the players on both sides of the ball that are gone from last year’s team, but there are plenty that are still here as well. There has to be a chip on the shoulder of this team, knowing not just that it was beaten last year, but that it was left out of a BCS bowl game this year as well in spite of its 10-2 season.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
LSU Tigers -6
Clemson Tigers +6
Over/Under 59
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Key #2: Tajh Boyd needs to come up big in the big time game
We have already spoken about what LSU has to bring to the table in this one and the chip that it is carrying on its shoulders, but there is probably even more weight on the shoulders of QB Tajh Boyd as well. Boyd had a great senior season, throwing for 3,550 yards and 34 TDs and rushing for 492 yards and nine TDs. However, when you look back at the last three games that he has played against SEC teams, the results haven’t been pretty. In those three games, two of which were lost to the South Carolina Gamecocks and one that was won against the Auburn Tigers, Boyd completed 52.8 percent of his passes for an average of 158.0 yards per game with three touchdowns and four picks. He also had 61 rushing yards and a TD in those games as well. The bottom line for the Clemson quarterback though, is that he only averaged helping his team put up 18.7 points per game in those outings, and that just isn’t good enough at any level. For a man that put up such remarkable stats over the course of his career, it’s shocking that he has really never beaten a big time team. In the last two years, he has two losses to South Carolina, a bad loss to Florida State in which the offense pulled every gimmick out of the books, and a 70-33 loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl. If there is a man that needs a win to validate his career, Boyd is the man.

Key #3: The Bayou Bengals have to be careful with their special teams
It’s not all that often that you say that a punter is the man that might be the difference in a game, but with P Brad Wing, that clearly has to be the case. Wing has been sent home from Hot ‘Lanta, and that takes away one of the best special teams weapons in the entire country. Wing averaged 44.8 yards per punt this year, and he uncorked just a ton of huge bombs. On top of that, he also rarely gets punts returned against him, if reserve P Jamie Keehn can’t do the same, there are going to be some openings for WR Sammy Watkins and WR Adam Humphries, both of which have the ability to be tremendously explosive return men. Even if the defense does the job and the offense gets some points on the board, it could be frightening for the Tigers to have to punt the ball without Wing out there.

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2012 Music City Bowl Prediction, Pick: NC State vs. Vanderbilt 12/31

December 29th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2012 Music City Bowl Prediction, Pick: NC State vs. Vanderbilt 12/31
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Music City Bowl 20122012 Music City Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the Vanderbilt Commodores and the NC State Wolfpack. Join us for our Music City Bowl keys to the game and our NC State vs. Vanderbilt predictions.

2012 Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. NC State Wolfpack
2012 Music City Bowl Location: LP Field, Nashville, TN
2012 Music City Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 31st, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Music City Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Mike Glennon cannot get erratic with the football
QB Mike Glennon is a senior, and he is a leader. With Head Coach Tom O’Brien dismissed after a 7-5 season, it is suspect as to how well the Wolfpack are going to respond to their interim coaches. Glennon is the constant here in this lineup. He threw for over 3,600 yards on the campaign, but he knows that he is going to be up against it. This won’t be a third 400+ yard game on the season, and it is likely to be a clash in which he struggles to get much beyond 250 passing yards or so. That being said, Glennon has had a problem in his career of keeping his head on straight when matters are going badly. The Commodores rank ninth in the country against the pass, and they did that against the rough and tumble SEC. Granted, the passing games were never the stoutest in the SEC, but there were some good ones, and the ‘Dores really shut just about all of them down. Glennon threw 14 INTs this year, and seven of those came in just two games. If he tosses multiple picks in this one against an opportunistic team, the Wolfpack are in a ton of trouble.

Music City Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
Vanderbilt Commodores -7
NC State Wolfpack +7
Over/Under 51.5
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Key #2: The Wolfpack have to account for Jordan Matthews
Sammy Watkins, Brandon Ford, DeAndre Hopkins, Giovani Bernard, Eric Ebron, Marcus Leak, Phillip Dorsett, Rashawn Scott, Cordarrelle Patterson, Zach Rogers, Justin Hunter. That’s 11 different receivers that accounted for at least 75 receiving yards against the Wolfpack this year, and five of those went for at least 100 yards. The secondary for NC State played against teams like The Citadel, Wake Forest, Maryland, South Alabama, and Connecticut this year, and none of those teams are exactly known for their passing prowess. Take those games out, and what’s left is a secondary that is allowing over 300 yards per game through the air. The Commodores aren’t going to get to 300 yards in all likelihood, but WR Jordan Matthews has the potential to bust the game wide open all by himself. All too often, teams get caught trying to defend the run against Vandy, and rightfully so, knowing that the Dores average running it just under 40 times per game. However, Matthews had 1,262 receiving yards this year and finished off the campaign by catching a TD in four straight games. He also averaged 8.7 catches and 137.3 yards per game in his last three games as well, all of which were wins and covers for the Commodores.

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Key #3: Vandy can’t get cute, has to stay committed to the run
Often times in these bowl games, with so much time to prepare for just one more game, coaches tend to get away from their comfort zone and throw some tricks into the bag that might mess with their own game plans more than anything else. As we just stated, the Commodores have made a living this year out of running the ball and throwing it to Matthews. The 39.1 runs per game was a very high number for this team this year, and that accounted for 59.4 percent of the plays run for the Dores. The Commodores have done a good job this year staying committed to the run regardless of their situation, as they ended up running the ball 57.2 percent of the time in games that they lost, but the higher the percentage, the better the results have generally been. The Wolfpack aren’t going to be able to stop the Commodores and RB Zac Stacy if he gets rumbling in the right direction, and Coach Franklin should know that and stick to the game plan for the attempt at the cover.

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