Our 2013 bowl predictions continue on Thursday, January 3rd with the Fiesta Bowl, and we are set to make our Fiesta Bowl predictions, tips, and keys to the game for the duel between the Oregon Ducks and the Kansas State Wildcats.

2013 Fiesta Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats
2013 Fiesta Bowl Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
2013 Fiesta Bowl Date/Time: Thursday, January 3rd, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
2013 Fiesta Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

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Key #1: The Wildcats have to put their best foot forward along the defensive line
The Ducks obviously have one of the best rushing teams on the planet, as they are averaging 323.2 yards per game on the ground. That ranks second in the nation, and it is the top mark amongst non-triple option teams. We know that RB Kenjon Barner is remarkable, and he rushed for 1,624 yards and 21 TDs this year. QB Marcus Mariota rushed for 690 yards, WR De’Anthony Thomas rushed for 686 yards, and RB Byron Marshall had 445 yards as well. These three men averaged 43.5 rushes per game over the course of the year. Kansas State though, has figured out how to stop the run this year to the tune of just 119.2 yards per game, and we have seen Oregon get the stopped before on the ground as well recently, against the Stanford Cardinal. The Wildcats held some of the best teams in the Big XII down in the teens and 20s in scoring, and a lot of that was thanks to that awesome 17th ranked rush defense. Perhaps the most impressive display is when the Oklahoma Sooners were kept to just 19 points in Norman when the Wildcats were 15.5-point underdogs. This isn’t quite the same game, but it has the same type of feel to it.

Fiesta Bowl Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
Oregon Ducks -8
Kansas State Wildcats +8
Over/Under 73.5
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Key #2: Marcus Mariota has to play like a senior in spite of the fact that he is a frosh
The Ducks will only go as far as their freshman quarterback takes them. We’ve already spoken about what Mariota has done on the ground with his legs this year, as he averaged 7.0 yards per rush and often got himself out of some trouble when he was under pressure from oncoming defenders. Mariota also threw the ball for 2,511 yards and 30 TDs against just six picks. He completed 69.9 percent of his passes and averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt. We have seen the Wildcats get thrown upon this year, and they conceded 255.2 passing yards per game. The question is whether Mariota is going to be able to be the whole package. It’s not about the passing yards, it’s not about the passing touchdowns, and it’s not about his legs. It’s about doing it all and not turning the ball over against a defense that allowed a shade over three touchdowns per game on average this year. The stage is huge. Mariota has to embrace that and play like a senior, and not just the freshman that he is.

Key #3: The Ducks have to avoid all of the distractions going on around them
The Ducks did win the Rose Bowl last year, but they haven’t really historically played all that well in bowl games under Head Coach Chip Kelly. That’s a huge distraction in itself, as is the fact that it has been over a month and a half since the last time that the team played a game. What’s worse for the Ducks is that Kelly is clearly on his way out of the school. The university is going to be under NCAA scrutiny here in the next several months, and bowl sanctions could be on the way. The time is here for Kelly to go to the NFL, and it almost seems like a given that someone is going to pay to bring his genius to the big boy league. Can the Ducks get past all of this and put together a fantastic game plan against a great team? It would be a heck of a lot easier if the BCS National Championship was on the line, but it isn’t. Is the Fiesta Bowl a big enough prize? Those are a heck of a lot of questions for the Ducks to be answering with a heck of a lot going on around them.

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Both the Stanford Cardinal and Oklahoma State Cowboys finished up their season with 11 wins, but both fell short of their ultimate goal by a single game. They’ll try to beat the Fiesta Bowl odds in the second BCS bowl game of the year on January 2nd.

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Fiesta Bowl Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Fiesta Bowl Date/Time: Monday, January 2nd, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Fiesta Bowl Television Coverage: ESPN, ESPN3.com

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Key #1: These teams have to prove that they want to be here
This is the second straight season that both the Cowboys and the Cardinal have really fallen short of their ultimate goal. Neither team failed so late in the season though to cost them the ultimate prize, and the end result saw Stanford kill the Virginia Tech Hokies in the BCS and had Oklahoma State destroying the Arizona Wildcats in the Alamo Bowl. Now, both teams are in the BCS once again, but again, neither one was able to be a National Championship contender due to their one flaw. We have to wonder if there is going to be a bit of a hangover for either side. Stanford still doesn’t quite look like it is totally over the loss to the Oregon Ducks, as it hasn’t been as dominating down the stretch as it was in the beginning of the season, while the Cowboys looked tremendous in Bedlam against the Oklahoma Sooners in their first action after their lone loss to the Iowa State Cyclones.

Fiesta Bowl Odds at Wager Web Sportsbook
Stanford Cardinal +3.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5
Over/Under 74
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Key #2: Andrew Luck needs to find a receiver to do damage
Luck didn’t win the Heisman Trophy this year even though he was considered the runaway favorite for the mass majority of the season, and part of the problem is that he really didn’t have a bona fide wide receiver to get the ball to. Sure, his tight ends were dominating all season long, and TE Coby Fleener was as awesome as a tight end could be at the collegiate level. WR Griff Whalen caught 49 passes for 664 yards and four scores, but perhaps Luck’s best target, WR Chris Owusu has been dealing with a concussion for the majority of the season. We aren’t counting on him for the Fiesta Bowl, but we know that someone else is going to have to step up on the outside to do some damage. If not, the Pokes are going to be able to load the box up and try to take away the rushing game with RB Stepfan Taylor, and if that’s the case, Stanford is going to be back basically in the same situation that it was in against Oregon when it was blown out of the water by three TDs on its home turf.

Key #3: Justin Blackmon has to be stopped
When you look at the numbers that the Cowboys put up this year, they are absolutely devastating. RB Joseph Randle had nearly 1,200 rushing yards and a whopping 25 trips to the end zone this year, and backup RB Jeremy Smith also had 645 yards on just 90 carries, nine of which went for TDs. QB Brandon Weeden completed 72.6 percent of his passes and accounted for 4,328 yards and 34 TDs versus just a dozen picks. However, the man that really has made this offense go for the past two years has been Blackmon. He only averaged 11.8 yards per reception this year, a far cry from his 16.1 a season ago, but he once again hauled in just a slew of passes (113 to be exact) and had 1,336 yards with 15 TDs. Blackmon is as talented of a receiver as there is in the nation, and assuming that he comes out of school this year and heads to the pros, he is likely going to step onto an NFL roster and become a true No. 1 wide out for a team that is willing to take him in the first dozen picks or so in the NFL Draft. The whole offense opens up when Blackmon is going, and the Cowboys have to have him in a big time way to keep up in what could be a major league shootout against the Cardinal.

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