Posts Tagged ‘football props’

NFL Prop Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Predictions 9/5

August 17th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Prop Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Predictions 9/5
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Full Cowboys @ Giants NFL Prop Sheet Listed Below

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are set to get started with the 2012 NFL season, and as a part of our analysis of the Week 1 betting lines, we are taking a look at some of the best NFL props on the board for the first game of the season.

Romo and ManningTotal Sacks Over/Under 4.5: On one glance, this prop should be really easy, right? After all, Jason Pierre-Paul should be good for a sack, as should DeMarcus Ware, and there are sure to be others that can get in on the action. Neither offensive line is all that great in pass coverage either, plus there was a game in which there were eight sacks between these teams just last year. Easy over, right? Not so fast. Over the course of the last six regular season games played between these two teams, three of the games featured no more than two sacks, and five of the six had four sacks or fewer. This is an easy one to get suckered into, but we aren’t buying it one bit. Dallas/New York Under 4.5 Sacks (+105)

Ahmad Bradshaw Over/Under 2.5 Receptions: Once upon a time, Bradshaw made for a good check down option for QB Eli Manning when he was under pressure. What we are seeing as time goes by though, is that Manning is getting more confident in his arm, and he is able to make throws down the field in the face of adversity. Parlay in there the fact that Bradshaw could be spending some more time on the bench with RB David Wilson cutting into his PT, and the feeling that we have is that there are just going to be fewer opportunities for the New York starting tailback to get the ball in his hands. We would be surprised to see him get three targets, let alone catch three balls. Bradshaw Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)

Tony Romo Over/Under 280.5 Passing Yards: This one is pretty cut and dry for us. Last year, Romo averaged just 261.5 passing yards per game, and he has never averaged more than 280 yards per game in a single season. He is going up against a New York defense that has held down its last six foes, one of which was QB Aaron Rodgers and one of which was QB Tom Brady to just 14.0 points per game. Romo also has averaged just 248.8 passing yards per game in his career against the G-Men, though it should be noted that one of those games was cut short because of a collarbone injury that he suffered. Take that game out, and the number is still 271.3 yards per game. Still, significantly more often than not, Romo is going to fail to reach this passing plateau, and we plan on taking full advantage of it. Romo Under 280.5 Passing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants NFL Props @ 5Dimes Sportsbook (as of 9/5/12):
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Score in First 6 ½ Minutes -140
No Score in First 6 ½ Minutes +110

Cowboys Score First +110
Giants Score First -140

First Score a Touchdown -170
First Score Not a Touchdown +140

Longest TD Over 44.5 Yards -115
Longest TD Under 44.5 Yards -115

Longest Field Goal Over 43.5 Yards -130
Longest Field Goal Under 43.5 Yards +100

Total Sacks Over 4.5 -135
Total Sacks Under 4.5 +105

Tony Romo Over 22.5 Completions -140
Tony Romo Under 22.5 Completions +110

Tony Romo Over 280.5 Passing Yards -115
Tony Romo Under 280.5 Passing Yards -115

Tony Romo Over 1.5 TD Passes -145
Tony Romo Under 1.5 TD Passes +115

Tony Romo Throws an INT -160
Tony Romo Doesn’t Throw an INT +130

DeMarco Murray Over 76.5 Rushing Yards -115
DeMarco Murray Under 76.5 Rushing Yards -115

DeMarco Murray Scores a TD +140
DeMarco Murray Doesn’t Score a TD -180

Felix Jones Over 3.5 Yards on First Rush -125
Felix Jones Under 3.5 Yards on First Rush -105

Dez Bryant Over 11.5 Yards on First Reception -110
Dez Bryan Under 11.5 Yards on First Reception -120

Eli Manning Over 23.5 Completions -115
Eli Manning Under 23.5 Completions -115

Eli Manning Over 297.5 Passing Yards -115
Eli Manning Under 297.5 Passing Yards -115

Eli Manning Over 1.5 TD Passes -180
Eli Manning Under 1.5 TD Passes +140

Eli Manning Throws an INT -185
Eli Manning Doesn’t Throw an INT +145

Ahmad Bradshaw Rushing Yards Over 65.5 -115
Ahmad Bradshaw Rushing Yards Under 65.5 -115

Ahmad Bradshaw Scores a TD +110
Ahmad Bradshaw Doesn’t Score a TD -140

Ahmad Bradshaw Over 2.5 Receptions -130
Ahmad Bradshaw Under 2.5 Receptions +100

Victor Cruz Over 5.5 Receptions +100
Victor Cruz Under 5.5 Receptions -130

Victor Cruz Over 90.5 Receiving Yards -115
Victor Cruz Under 90.5 Receiving Yards -115

Victor Cruz Scores a TD +115
Victor Cruz Doesn’t Score a TD -145

Peyton Manning NFL Prop Predictions, & Odds Tim Tebow Gets Traded

March 20th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Peyton Manning NFL Prop Predictions, & Odds Tim Tebow Gets Traded
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Bovada Sportsbook is always the home for some of the best NFL props out there, and today, we are going to analyze the Peyton Manning props that just hit the board now that he has signed with the Denver Broncos, along with the odds on where Tim Tebow will be playing next year.

Denver Broncos Regular Season Wins Over 10
Remember in the AFC West, there are six games that Denver really should take at least five of. There’s no reason to not win the mass majority of the games on this type of a slate. The Broncos still have the defense to get the job done, and they still just tend to find some ways to win games, and in the end, we would be a lot less surprised to see them win 11 games than to see them win just nine or fewer as long as Manning proves to be remotely healthy.

Peyton Manning Under 4,000 Total Passing Yards
We know that Manning has had very few bad seasons in his career. He has played in 13 seasons in the past, and of those, he never had fewer than 3,739 yards, and he exceeded 4,000 yards in 11 of the 13. However, Head Coach John Fox is a guy that wants to run the football, and it isn’t just because Tebow couldn’t really throw the football to save his life. Jake Delhomme never threw for 4,000 yards in a season with Fox calling the shots with the Carolina Panthers, and though we know that Delhomme is no Peyton Manning, it just doesn’t seem like it is in Fox’s nature to let Manning throw the ball the 525-550 times required for him to reach 4,000 yards. Remember that injuries could come into play as well, and if Manning isn’t good to go for the full year, he won’t be anywhere near this number in all likelihood.

Peyton Manning Total TD Passes in 2012 Season Over 28.5
Now, this is a different story. Manning has absolutely pristine precision in the end zone, and though his arm strength might not be what it once was, we have to reason to believe that he still won’t have the eye and the accuracy to be able to put the ball exactly where it needs to be. There are some big, tall receivers that are playing here in Denver, and once Manning builds that rapport with them, there are going to be a heck of a lot of opportunities to score. Remember that the AFC West had some miserable defenses last season, and they aren’t going to be getting any better. We have to think that Manning has 30 TD potential this year.

Peyton Manning Total INTs in 2012 Season Over 16.5
Yeah, sure. We hear you. Manning really was only this bad at the very beginning of his career, and he surely is going to be very careful with the football here in Denver. That being said, we think that the arm strength issue could be a concern. There are a lot of gambling corners out there that are going to love to get a piece of Manning, and he became a bit pick happy in his last two seasons, tossing 33 INTs in that stretch. Manning could be worth 20 INTs this year.

Will Peyton Manning Win 2012 NFL MVP? (+700)
Really, Bovada? Only 7 to 1 on this prop. No thanks. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are all going to be frontrunners for the MVP award at the start of the year, and we just don’t see that changing at any point in the near future. Manning won’t have the numbers this year to get the job done, and in all likelihood, he probably won’t even be considered when push comes to shove.

Will Peyton Manning Win Comeback Player of the Year? (+100)
Now, here’s a lot smarter prop. Manning doesn’t have to be a super stud to win this award, just knowing that there usually aren’t a ton of great candidates for this honor when push really comes to shove. The story in Denver is going to be great to follow this year, and the media is going to be all over Manning. As long as he stays on the horse, he should be the Comeback Player of the Year.

Where Will Tim Tebow Play Next Year?
Jacksonville +150
Denver +175
Miami +175
New England +700
Cleveland +1200

Oh, Denver, what are you going to do here? The most logical place for Tebow to land is in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars just signed Chad Henne and still have Blaine Gabbert, who was only just put into the fray last season as the team’s No. 1 draft pick. Dare the Jags give up on Gabbert and give Tebow a shot? He’ll sell uniforms, but he might not do much more. We just don’t see the Broncos hanging onto him, as we think that that situation will get toxic in a hurry with the media that will be in the Mile High City. The Browns do need a quarterback, but trading in Colt McCoy for Tebow just doesn’t seem to be that much of an upgrade. They’re both proven winners and both work incredibly hard, and Tebow just doesn’t strike us as a Cleveland type of guy. New England is a team to consider for sure.

The Pats have all sorts of love for Tebow, from the fact that Head Coach Bill Belichick loves drafting Gators to the fact that Josh McDaniels, the new OC for the team, is the man that traded up to draft Tebow in Denver. Still, if we had to guess, Tebow is going to be bringing his talents to South Beach. The Dolphins fans are starting to rise up against ownership, and the team needs to make a splash. Sure, it would have been a lot better to land Manning, and heck, it probably would have been better to end up with Matt Flynn, too. However, Tebow at least brings a name to the team, gives it a shot of having a starting quarterback at the NFL level that has won some games, and gives ownership the ability of adding another glitzy name, just like Serena Williams and all of the other big names that have small ownership of the team.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Prop Picks (12/26/11)

December 26th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Prop Picks (12/26/11)
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jason Snelling Over/Under 128.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Playing ‘unders’ in NFL props like this one can be dangerous, as we have a slew of players that are involved, which really removes the potential easy out of an early injury. The first time that these two teams met, Turner and Rodgers alone had 126 yards on the ground and another 43 as receivers, and that really doesn’t bode well for the ‘under’ in this one. However, we have to look at the great job that New Orleans has really done this year against backfield groupings like this one. The team is averaging allowing just 109.9 rushing yards per game, and that is in a division in which th e Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers run the snot out of the football. Sure, dump off passes might be the death of us in this one, but we are definitely going to take our chances that the power of the New Orleans defense is going to be enough to get the job done in this very crucial game. Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jason Snelling Under 128.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Darren Sproles Over/Under 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Sproles really is a one of a kind back in this league, as he does just about everything. Sure, he is only run between the tackles a handful of times per game, but he is capable of being a 100+ yard receiver as well in any game, and any time he touches the football, it could go a long, long way. Sproles has 496 yards on the ground and 659 more as a receiver, both of which are career highs with two games to play. In the first meeting, he was really kept under wraps, as he rushed for just one yard and had four catches for two yards. However, that isn’t going to stop him by any means, as he is surely going to have a heck of a lot better day than that. He will probably get at least seven or eight targets as a receiver, and if he can catch just four or five of them, it could result in a slew of yards. We just don’t like the Atlanta defense and its capability of slowing down Sproles yet again in this game. When push comes to shove, at home, Sproles is a different back, and he is going to show it on Monday. Darren Sproles Over 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Drew Brees Over/Under 2.5 TD Passes
Asking a quarterback to throw for three TDs in a game is always a tall task, but we think that this is going to be one of these days in which Brees puts his name back in the hat for the MVP award once and for all. Sure, he isn’t going to catch QB Aaron Rodgers for the most passing touchdowns in the league at 45 since he “only” has 37 scores, but he is going to become the first quarterback of the season to throw for at least 5,000 yards, and he is probably going to break QB Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season on this night. Brees is 220 yards shy of becoming the first man to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season twice in his career, and he needs another 83 yards to break Marino’s record. We think that he will do it, and do it with flying colors, and if he needs to play in Week 17, we think that he could even come up near the 5,500 yard mark to totally smash the record to bits and pieces as well. With 16 TDs and no picks over the course of his last five games, Brees is just rolling right now, and we don’t see how he isn’t going to throw for at least three TDs at least half the time in this situation. Remember that he already has three or more scores in seven of his 14 games this year, including in five of his six played here at the Louisiana Superdome. Drew Brees Over 2.5 TD Passes (+105 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prop Picks 12/17/11

December 12th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Prop Picks 12/17/11
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Tony Romo -42.5 Passing Yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QBs
Over the course of the last few weeks, Romo really hasn’t had as many passing yards as you would figure. He only passed the 300-yard mark for the first time since Week 6 last week against the Giants, and in that game, the Cowboys allowed 400 passing yards to QB Eli Manning. We know that QB Josh Freeman has been a nightmare in terms of turning the ball over, but that doesn’t mean that he is all of a sudden going to end up forgetting how to throw the pigskin down the field. For all of their problems this year, the Bucs QBs are averaging 241.7 passing yards per game between them. This is a bad secondary that they are going against, and we think that they can get into the 260s or 270s in this one. Don’t be shocked if Tampa Bay’s QBs win this prop outright. Getting 42.5 yards is a heck of a start. Tampa Bay QBs +42.5 Passing Yards (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones
Jones is going to be back as the starting back for the Cowboys, but that doesn’t mean that he is going to immediately step in and put up the numbers that RB DeMarco Murray did. Murray was clearly the superior back of the two for this offense, and we just don’t know whether we are only going to see Jones in the backfield or not. RB Phillip Tanner could get some looks, especially in short yardage situations. Though Blount has been splitting carries all over the place with backs like RB Kregg Lumpkin and RB Moises Madu, he has still generally been getting his looks. He has at least 18 carries in three of his last four games. The problem is that you’re not going to get a lot of “Wow!” plays from Blount, and he isn’t going to pitch into the passing game all that often. But if he can get himself 80 yards in this one on the ground, we see no reason why he wouldn’t be a big time winner. Again, we think that this NFL prop should be a heck of a lot closer to a pick ’em than anything else. LeGarrette Blount +24.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards vs. Felix Jones (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Total Field Goals Over/Under 3.5
We know that K Dan Bailey has had some issues over the course of the last few weeks kicking important field goals at the gun, but we also know that he has just a slew of attempts this year. Bailey has made 31 of his 35 field goal attempts, and he has had at least two attempts in each of his last six games. The Dallas offense just has a tendency of reaching the red zone and just flopping. K Connor Barth, at times, is the only offense that the Bucs have. He hasn’t missed a kick since Week 6, and Head Coach Raheem Morris has a ton of confidence in him. We don’t think that there will be a shortage of yards in this game, but whether either team can execute in the red zone is a totally different story. Over 3.5 Field Goals (+145 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Prop Picks 12/15/11

December 10th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Prop Picks 12/15/11
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Thursday Night Football picks and our Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Thursday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Blaine Gabbert Over/Under 17.5 Completions
Simply put, we just really don’t trust Gabbert all that much. In a game in which the Jags forced seven turnovers and had the ball for seemingly the entire game, the former Missouri Tiger only completed 19-of-33 passing. That Falcons aren’t going to hand the ball over nearly that much, and they promise to have a better pass rush and more heart than the Bucs did. Considering the fact that this game will have so many fewer opportunities for the Jaguars than last week’s win did, we have no choice but to go with Blaine Gabbert Under 17.5 Pass Completions (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Total Punts Over/Under 10.5
Jacksonville punted the ball away seven times last week in a game that it dominated. The team has already punted the ball 81 times this year, including a number of which have come via the three and out. If the Jaguars punt the ball another seven times in this game it’s going to be hard to see the punt total get to anything less than 11. The Falcons take a ton of chances and chuck the ball deep all the time, and Head Coach Mike Smith often puts the ball in the hands of his punter, who is averaging almost five punts per game. It seems like a winner to us, especially with both of these teams playing on short notice and Jacksonville playing its third game under its new coach in 11 days. Over 10.5 Punts (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert
We have already spoken just a tad about Gabbert and how we really don’t trust the fact that he is going to complete even 15 passes in this game. That being said, we take a look at the numbers that Matty Ice has put up of late and make the assumption that he is going to get to at least 260 yards through the air. He has reached that mark in six straight games, and he is starting to take some more shots down the field. He has a full set of receivers with WR Roddy White and a now-healthy WR Julio Jones, and this offense is a heck of a lot more efficient with both healthy and in the lineup. Ryan already has 3,474 passing yards this year, and we think that he is going to fly past the 4,000 mark before season’s end, especially at the rate of which he is going right now. If Ryan gets to 272, that would mean that Gabbert would have to have a career high in passing yards in order to beat us. We just don’t see any way that that could happen. Barring an injury, this should be a slam dunk. Matt Ryan -50.5 Passing Yards vs. Blaine Gabbert (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/12/11)

December 8th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Prop Picks (12/12/11)
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Our NFL prop picks continue with our Monday Night Football picks and our St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks prop picks. Be sure to check out our NFL prop picks for the big duel on Monday, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

Marshawn Lynch Over/Under 109.5 Rushing Yards
Enter: Beast Mode. Lynch defined the term “Beast Mode” last year when he ran right through the New Orleans Saints’ defense in the playoffs. Now, he has clearly kicked himself into some gear that hardly anyone has been able to stop. Lynch has found the end zone in eight straight games, and he has rumbled for at least 100 yards in three of his last four. Now, he’s going against a defense that is allowing over 150 yards per game on the ground and has been absolutely blistered by a number of the top running backs in the league. The saddest part is that the Rams haven’t played much of a schedule either, and now, their offense is probably not going to be spending all that much time on the field considering how brutal the quarterback situation has turned out to be. Lynch should come up near 30 carries as long as this one stays relatively close for at least three quarters. Marshawn Lynch Over 109.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

Doug Baldwin Over/Under 3 Receptions
Baldwin was held down to just one catch for 21 yards in last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, but he and QB Tarvaris Jackson have still built up a nice rapport. He has come up with at least three receptions in six of his last eight games, and in one of those games in which he didn’t end up getting to at least this number, he was knocked out with a concussion against the Baltimore Ravens. This is a bad defense all around that Baldwin is going to be going again, and we have to continue to stress the fact that Seattle is probably going to get a slew of chances with the football on this night. Baldwin should be the one that really capitalizes, especially with WR Sidney Rice out of the lineup. Doug Baldwin Over 3 Receptions (+105 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

James Laurinaitis Over/Under 7.5 Tackles
We don’t normally play on these props for tackles, because they are generally awfully random. However, in this case, we don’t really like the chances of Laurinaitis to reach this number. The former Ohio State Buckeye does have at least 10 tackles in three of his last six games, but he only has one other game in which he has more than 7.5 tackles on the season. Sure, Lynch is going to be running the ball right at him over and over again, but that doesn’t mean that Head Coach Pete Carroll isn’t very knowledgeable of the situation. Laurinaitis will have a decent game, but to ask him to come up with eight tackles is a heck of a lot of work to ask for out of a single linebacker. James Laurinaitis Under 7.5 Tackles (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook).

Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12

December 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Odds The Indianapolis Colts Go Winless 0-16 In 2011-12
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As of this posting (12/3), the Indianapolis Colts are 0-11 and are five steps away from pulling off the dubious distinction of an 0-16 season. We take a moment to look at the odds the Colts finish 0-16 this year. They are +160 to pull off the bad feat, and we are set to take a look at their chances.

Indianapolis went from having one of the best passing games in the league to one of the worst. The team is averaging just 181.0 yards per game passing this year, No. 28 in the game. A lot of the problem is that QB Curtis Painter just isn’t ready to play in the NFL. He is only completing 54.3 percent of his passes with six scores against nine picks. He replaced the ineffective QB Kerry Collins, who led the team to three losses in a row before being benched and eventually put on injured reserve. Now, the ball will be turned over to QB Dan Orlovsky.

The problem with Orlovsky is that he has already had his hand in an 0-16 team, doing so with the Detroit Lions last decade. That being said, the former Connecticut Husky probably has the best chance of leading this team to a victory.

However, if you look at the schedule over the course of the next two weeks, you see a road game at the New England Patriots and a road game against the Baltimore Ravens in back to back weeks. We already know that the Pats and their potent passing game are three touchdown favorites, and especially if Indy doesn’t figure out how to cover this spread this week, it will probably be a three TD dog again next week when the Ravens come to town.

To wrap up the season, the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans pay a visit to Lucas Oil Field, and the Colts will finish up with a road game at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Let’s look at a brief comparison between these Colts and the 2008 Lions. Orlovsky led a passing game that averaged 206 passing yards and 83.3 rushing yards per game. These Colts are basically on par with that, and they are actually scoring fewer points per game. Those Lions were averaging 16.8 points per game against the 13.6 points per game for these Colts. Defensively, Indy has the worst defense in the league at 29.7 points per game. Those Lions averaged 32.3 points per game allowed, a mark that the Colts still have plenty of time to catch up to.

There are two more factors that we have to take into consideration. The first is that Head Coach Jim Caldwell could become a lame duck coach. There are grumblings that an 0-16 season would see Caldwell get fired, which might become important for his team to put together their biggest efforts.

The second, of course, is whether the Colts try to get QB Peyton Manning back on the field or not at the end of this season. Manning has been cleared to start to practice once again, though he hasn’t made any notions that he is going to get back on the field at any point. That being said, if he does get back on the field, we will see just how important he is to this team, and he could possibly lead the squad to a victory or two.