2012 Hawaii Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the SMU Mustangs and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Join us for our Hawaii Bowl keys to the game and our Fresno State vs. SMU predictions.

2012 Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
2012 Hawaii Bowl Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
2012 Hawaii Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 24th, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Hawaii Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: The Mustangs have to not get trampled defensively
All too often in these bowl games, one of the two teams (and it isn’t always the inferior team) just gets trampled defensively. Teams come out of the blocks with guns blazing, and in the blink of an eye, 21 points hit the scoreboard, making it virtually impossible to get back in the game. SMU’s offense isn’t good enough in all likelihood against a stout defense to come back from down three scores to win, so the unit really has to make sure that it doesn’t just get run all over right out of the blocks. The Mustangs will especially have some problems if they end up letting QB Derek Carr throw the ball all over the place, as this team ranks just 107th in the country, allowing 271.2 yards per game. Five teams were able to put at least 36 up against the Mustangs this year, but that just can’t happen if they are going to figure out how to stay in this game. Fresno State will get its points, but the hope is to keep it so gobs of points don’t get on the scoreboard.

Hawaii Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
SMU Mustangs +11.5
Fresno State Bulldogs -11.5
Over/Under 59.5
Click Here to Bet Your Hawaii Bowl Picks!

Key #2: SMU has to figure out how to not lose the turnover battle
The reason that the Mustangs won six games this year is because their defense, though sometimes shoddy, did manage to force 33 turnovers in just 12 games. It was crucial for sure to keep this team in the fold, knowing that the offense only turned the ball over a total of 21 times, giving the Mustangs a +1.0 turnover per game advantage. The Bulldogs though, ranked tied for fifth in America in turnover margin at +17 for the year. Turnovers are the great equalizers in these bowl games for sure, and it is going to be tough for either of these teams to win this game from behind in that category. QB Derek Carr isn’t likely to make mistakes, knowing that he only threw six INTs all year long. QB Garrett Gilbert though, is a much different story. He had 13 picks, and he barely completed half of his passes in some of his games. If the Mustangs win this game, we would bet that they are at least +2 in the turnover category as a result.

Key #3: Fresno State has to stay balanced and keep the ball in Robbie Rouse’s hands
Fresno State has always had a great tradition of solid running backs, and RB Robbie Rouse is the next in that line. He rushed for 1,468 yards and had 406 more as a receiver, totaling 14 TDs as well. This is a back that is truly a horse, as Rouse now has 598 carries over the course of the last two seasons alone. When the ball is in his hands, good things tend to happen. Rouse got over 100 rushing yards in nine of his 12 games this year, and the one game that wasn’t covered or won, the 20-10 loss on the Smurf Turf at the Boise State Broncos, he had just 77 rushing yards. Carr will do the job that he needs to do, but the team can’t get pass happy. To cover a number like this one, it is going to take a nicely poised game with a lot of touches from Rouse to get the job done. Don’t be shocked if Rouse has another humongous game like he did against the Nevada Wolf Pack, as he rushed for 261 yards on 36 carries in that 52-36 victory. If he does, the Mustangs are in a heck of a lot of trouble.

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If you’re a fan of NCAA football picks, you’re going to love the Humanitarian Bowl this year! Two of the more underrated mid major clubs in the country lock horns on Boise State’s Smurf Turf, as the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have already been crippled once on this field, take on the Northern Illinois Huskies. This is the second bowl game of the year and is one that you certainly won’t want to miss out on. But will it be the MAC or the WAC that is celebrating when this toss up is over with? The oddsmakers can’t figure out who to favor in this one, but we certainly can help you pick out a winner! Check out these keys to the game you must consider before making your Humanitarian Bowl picks!

Key #1: Northern Illinois has to act like a team that wants to be here
The Huskies finally have their new man, as former Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Coordinator Dave Doeren is going to be taking over at the conclusion of this game. However, the man in charge now is linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz, as he has been leading the team in preparation for the Humanitarian Bowl. The departure of Head Coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers came as a bit of a surprise to many, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been for the Huskies. They just barely had cracked the Top 25 after going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in MAC play, and they clearly play in an inferior conference to Minnesota. Now, without a real leader, the Huskies have to unite and come back from the devastating loss in the MAC Championship Game to the Miami Redhawks as well. We tend to believe that NIU has the better team in this game, but if it doesn’t play like it wants to be here in Boise, it is probably going to end up on the short end of the stick.

Humanitarian Bowl Odds at JustBet
Northern Illinois Huskies -1
Fresno State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 58.5
Click Here to Bet on Your Humanitarian Bowl Picks! 

Key #2: Ryan Colburn and the rushing game must keep Fresno State balanced
Northern Illinois had one of the most balanced defenses in the entire country this year, holding teams to just 328.2 yards per game and ranking No. 35 or better in every major defensive category. At times this year though, the Bulldogs didn’t stay as true to themselves both with the pass and with the run. It seemed as though when RB Robbie Rouse was in the game, he was the one getting the football. Rouse touched the ball 205 times in just ten games this year, and he accounted for over 1,200 yards of offense and ten of the team’s 41 offensive TDs. When Rouse wasn’t in there though, there was no confidence in any other running back and QB Ryan Colburn was stuck putting the ball in the air a ton. Colburn threw for 2,529 yards this year, but his numbers were all over the board to get there. He put the ball up 33 or more times four times this year, but he also threw 26 or fewer times eight times. Needless to say, this type of inconsistency just isn’t going to cut it, especially when you know that the best opponents you have played have killed you this year. In these games against the Hawaii Warriors, Boise State Broncos, and Nevada Wolf Pack, Colburn threw for just 176.0 yards per game and completed an average of just 13.7 passes per game. That won’t cut it against Northern Illinois. Both Colburn and Rouse have to keep their acts together at the same time, or stopping this Huskies defense is going to be impossible.

Key #3: Chandler Harnish must be forced into some mistakes
QB Chandler Harnish did a fantastic job all season long taking care of the football. The junior only threw five picks for the campaign, and he hasn’t thrown a blunder since the end of the game against the Ball State Cardinals back on November 20th. He also has seven TDs in that stretch. A 20/5 TD/INT ratio for the season was the best for any signal caller in the MAC and one of the best in the entire country, and Harnish should be proud of that. The only thing that gets him in trouble at times is when he tries to do too much with his legs but cannot figure out how to get all the way to the perimeter to break loose. Harnish has a great running back to rely on in RB Chad Spann, and stopping Spann is going to be virtually impossible as it is for a rush defense that was really worked over by a few teams this year. Harnish had five games this year with at least 70 yards on the ground, including three with at least 110. If he has that type of momentum and isn’t making mistakes, this offense for Northern Illinois is very, very tough to stop. There’s a reason these guys scored an average of 47.8 points per game in the regular season in conference play this year.