2012 Hawaii Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the SMU Mustangs and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Join us for our Hawaii Bowl keys to the game and our Fresno State vs. SMU predictions.

2012 Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
2012 Hawaii Bowl Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
2012 Hawaii Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 24th, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Hawaii Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

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Key #1: The Mustangs have to not get trampled defensively
All too often in these bowl games, one of the two teams (and it isn’t always the inferior team) just gets trampled defensively. Teams come out of the blocks with guns blazing, and in the blink of an eye, 21 points hit the scoreboard, making it virtually impossible to get back in the game. SMU’s offense isn’t good enough in all likelihood against a stout defense to come back from down three scores to win, so the unit really has to make sure that it doesn’t just get run all over right out of the blocks. The Mustangs will especially have some problems if they end up letting QB Derek Carr throw the ball all over the place, as this team ranks just 107th in the country, allowing 271.2 yards per game. Five teams were able to put at least 36 up against the Mustangs this year, but that just can’t happen if they are going to figure out how to stay in this game. Fresno State will get its points, but the hope is to keep it so gobs of points don’t get on the scoreboard.

Hawaii Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
SMU Mustangs +11.5
Fresno State Bulldogs -11.5
Over/Under 59.5
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Key #2: SMU has to figure out how to not lose the turnover battle
The reason that the Mustangs won six games this year is because their defense, though sometimes shoddy, did manage to force 33 turnovers in just 12 games. It was crucial for sure to keep this team in the fold, knowing that the offense only turned the ball over a total of 21 times, giving the Mustangs a +1.0 turnover per game advantage. The Bulldogs though, ranked tied for fifth in America in turnover margin at +17 for the year. Turnovers are the great equalizers in these bowl games for sure, and it is going to be tough for either of these teams to win this game from behind in that category. QB Derek Carr isn’t likely to make mistakes, knowing that he only threw six INTs all year long. QB Garrett Gilbert though, is a much different story. He had 13 picks, and he barely completed half of his passes in some of his games. If the Mustangs win this game, we would bet that they are at least +2 in the turnover category as a result.

Key #3: Fresno State has to stay balanced and keep the ball in Robbie Rouse’s hands
Fresno State has always had a great tradition of solid running backs, and RB Robbie Rouse is the next in that line. He rushed for 1,468 yards and had 406 more as a receiver, totaling 14 TDs as well. This is a back that is truly a horse, as Rouse now has 598 carries over the course of the last two seasons alone. When the ball is in his hands, good things tend to happen. Rouse got over 100 rushing yards in nine of his 12 games this year, and the one game that wasn’t covered or won, the 20-10 loss on the Smurf Turf at the Boise State Broncos, he had just 77 rushing yards. Carr will do the job that he needs to do, but the team can’t get pass happy. To cover a number like this one, it is going to take a nicely poised game with a lot of touches from Rouse to get the job done. Don’t be shocked if Rouse has another humongous game like he did against the Nevada Wolf Pack, as he rushed for 261 yards on 36 carries in that 52-36 victory. If he does, the Mustangs are in a heck of a lot of trouble.

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The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl is a Christmas Eve classic every single year, and here at Bankroll Sports, we are set for our Hawaii Bowl keys to the game, which will help you with all of your Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles predictions and picks!

Hawaii Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Hawaii Bowl Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Hawaii Bowl Date/Time: Saturday, December 24th, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Hawaii Bowl Television Coverage: ESPN, ESPN3.com

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Key #1: The Wolf Pack must find running room with the Pistol
The days of QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Vai Taua, and RB Luke Lippincott are long since over with for the Wolf Pack, and now, they have to take a team that really is completely new offensively into the Hawaii Bowl against a team that ranks No. 20 in the land against the rush. Though QB Cody Fajardo has played well under center since he has come in place of QB Tyler Lantrip, he is still just a freshman and badly needs to be kept out of as much danger as possible. That leaves RB Lampford Mark to get the job done on the ground, and though he is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, he doesn’t have the same type of explosiveness that backs before him at Nevada have had. If the ground game is stuffed, there is no hope for the Wolf Pack to pull off this upset.

Hawaii Bowl Odds at Wager Web Sportsbook
Nevada Wolf Pack +7
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles -7
Over/Under 62
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Key #2: Southern Miss has to respond well to Fedora’s last game
Often times, teams that are about to lose their head coach go through some severe reactions. In this case, Fedora is going to be on the sidelines before he heads off to Chapel Hill to take the job with the North Carolina Tar Heels, and you can bet that the Eagles are going to want to send him out as a winner. The fact that he was able to take this program to arguably a bad loss against UAB away from being in the BCS is remarkable, as Conference USA teams don’t historically challenge for BCS bowl bids, and emotions have to be kept in check.

Key #3: Chris Ault needs to change things up just a bit
Bowl history for the Wolf Pack hasn’t been all that special. Since 2005, the team has played in a bowl game every year, including twice here in the 50th state. That being said, in spite of the fact that Nevada almost always has an offense that ranks in the Top 25 in America, the results aren’t always great. It barely walked away with a victory over a very suspect Boston College club in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl last year, and that was the fourth time in the last five bowl games in which this team has failed to exceed 20 points in its bowl game. Ault has been fantastic for years and years in Reno, but the truth of the matter is that teams that have a hard time trying to figure out how Pistol attack with just a week of preparation in the regular season have historically figured it all out by the time the team’s bowl game has come around. Fedora is a smart cookie defensively, and if he was really able to figure out how to frustrate the passing attack of QB Kevin Kolb and the Houston Cougars, we’re afraid that without some new wrinkles for this game, the Pistol doesn’t stand a chance.

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