2012 Music City Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the Vanderbilt Commodores and the NC State Wolfpack. Join us for our Music City Bowl keys to the game and our NC State vs. Vanderbilt predictions.

2012 Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. NC State Wolfpack
2012 Music City Bowl Location: LP Field, Nashville, TN
2012 Music City Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 31st, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Music City Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Mike Glennon cannot get erratic with the football
QB Mike Glennon is a senior, and he is a leader. With Head Coach Tom O’Brien dismissed after a 7-5 season, it is suspect as to how well the Wolfpack are going to respond to their interim coaches. Glennon is the constant here in this lineup. He threw for over 3,600 yards on the campaign, but he knows that he is going to be up against it. This won’t be a third 400+ yard game on the season, and it is likely to be a clash in which he struggles to get much beyond 250 passing yards or so. That being said, Glennon has had a problem in his career of keeping his head on straight when matters are going badly. The Commodores rank ninth in the country against the pass, and they did that against the rough and tumble SEC. Granted, the passing games were never the stoutest in the SEC, but there were some good ones, and the ‘Dores really shut just about all of them down. Glennon threw 14 INTs this year, and seven of those came in just two games. If he tosses multiple picks in this one against an opportunistic team, the Wolfpack are in a ton of trouble.

Music City Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
Vanderbilt Commodores -7
NC State Wolfpack +7
Over/Under 51.5
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Key #2: The Wolfpack have to account for Jordan Matthews
Sammy Watkins, Brandon Ford, DeAndre Hopkins, Giovani Bernard, Eric Ebron, Marcus Leak, Phillip Dorsett, Rashawn Scott, Cordarrelle Patterson, Zach Rogers, Justin Hunter. That’s 11 different receivers that accounted for at least 75 receiving yards against the Wolfpack this year, and five of those went for at least 100 yards. The secondary for NC State played against teams like The Citadel, Wake Forest, Maryland, South Alabama, and Connecticut this year, and none of those teams are exactly known for their passing prowess. Take those games out, and what’s left is a secondary that is allowing over 300 yards per game through the air. The Commodores aren’t going to get to 300 yards in all likelihood, but WR Jordan Matthews has the potential to bust the game wide open all by himself. All too often, teams get caught trying to defend the run against Vandy, and rightfully so, knowing that the Dores average running it just under 40 times per game. However, Matthews had 1,262 receiving yards this year and finished off the campaign by catching a TD in four straight games. He also averaged 8.7 catches and 137.3 yards per game in his last three games as well, all of which were wins and covers for the Commodores.

Key #3: Vandy can’t get cute, has to stay committed to the run
Often times in these bowl games, with so much time to prepare for just one more game, coaches tend to get away from their comfort zone and throw some tricks into the bag that might mess with their own game plans more than anything else. As we just stated, the Commodores have made a living this year out of running the ball and throwing it to Matthews. The 39.1 runs per game was a very high number for this team this year, and that accounted for 59.4 percent of the plays run for the Dores. The Commodores have done a good job this year staying committed to the run regardless of their situation, as they ended up running the ball 57.2 percent of the time in games that they lost, but the higher the percentage, the better the results have generally been. The Wolfpack aren’t going to be able to stop the Commodores and RB Zac Stacy if he gets rumbling in the right direction, and Coach Franklin should know that and stick to the game plan for the attempt at the cover.

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