Posts Tagged ‘NCAA football odds’

West Virginia vs. Syracuse Predictions: 2012 Pinstripe Bowl 12/29

December 28th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on West Virginia vs. Syracuse Predictions: 2012 Pinstripe Bowl 12/29
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Pinstripe Bowl LogoThe 2012 Pinstripe Bowl picks are going to be difficult to make, as the West Virginia Mountaineers and Syracuse Orange are set to do battle with one another in a Big XII vs. Big East battle. Check out our Pinstripe Bowl predictions and the keys to the game for West Virginia vs. Syracuse.

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2012 Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange
2012 Pinstripe Bowl Location: New Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
2012 Pinstripe Bowl Date/Time: Saturday, December 29th, 3:15 p.m. (ET)
2012 Pinstripe Bowl Television Coverage: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Key #1: These two teams have to weather the weather
We’ve always wondered if this was going to turn out to be the case in a bowl game here at Yankee Stadium, and we’re going to be getting some awfully fun weather as a result. It’s going to be snowy and cold in the Bronx, and the team that is going to win this game is going to be the one that adapts better to the conditions. Even though Syracuse is a team that plays its ball further north than this, it does take to games in the Carrier Dome, where it is always 72 degrees. West Virginia has already had a few games in which it has had to bare the elements, namely in a 59-10 win over the Kansas Jayhawks in Morgantown. Receivers have to make sure that they are wearing the right cleats and have the proper gloves on, and both quarterbacks are going to have to make sure that they keep a good grasp on the football, and whichever team executes that facet of the game better is going to be the one that ultimately goes on to win the Pinstripe Bowl in all likelihood.

Pinstripe Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
West Virginia Mountaineers -3.5
Syracuse Orange +3.5
Over/Under 72.5
Click Here to Bet Your Pinstripe Bowl Picks!

Key #2: The Syracuse secondary has to be ready for a war
It’s not so much that the West Virginia wide receivers have to be stopped, because there is just no way to actually stop both WR Tavon Austin and WR Stedman Bailey. The trick is figuring out how to contain them and to try to make someone else beat you if you’re the Orange. Syracuse’s secondary isn’t all that bad, as this unit ranked a modest 65th in the country against the pass this year, allowing 236.9 yards per game. The problem that we see though, is the fact that some of the best receivers in the nation have blown this secondary up. WR Robert Woods and WR Marqise Lee combined for 21 catches, 159 yards, and five TDs when the USC Trojans came to town earlier this year in the most comparable game. Stopping Bailey and Austin is just impossible, knowing that the two men combined this year to average the following stat line: 17.9 receptions, 230.6 receiving yards, 49.8 rushing yards, 85.9 return yards, and a total of 3.3 touchdowns per game. Those are numbers that are just out of this world for sure, and these two make up the best tandem of receivers this side of Woods and Lee in the nation.

Key #3: Ryan Nassib has to be prepared to throw for four bills
QB Ryan Nassib threw for 3,607 yards this year to go with 24 TDs, but he has to be prepared to really slug it out with QB Geno Smith and the West Virginia offense. This defense has shown its ability to give up points in bunches this year, and the team did allow just slews of points to teams with significantly less talented offenses. Nassib is going to have a lot on his shoulders in this one, as he is not only carrying the weight of his team, but he is also trying to impress the NFL scouts that think that he could be a first round NFL Draft pick this year. Nassib threw for 470 yards in the opening game of the season against the Northwestern Wildcats, and he had five other games this year in which he threw for at least 325 yards. He’s going to have to do that once again in this one in all likelihood if the Orange really have a chance of keeping up, and doing so in the snow is going to be all the more difficult to do.

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2012 Russell Athletic Bowl Prediction Rutgers vs Virginia Tech 12/28

December 28th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2012 Russell Athletic Bowl Prediction Rutgers vs Virginia Tech 12/28
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Russell Athletic Bowl Game2012 Russell Athletic Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Join us for our Russell Athletic Bowl keys to the game and our Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech predictions.

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2012 Russell Athletic Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2012 Russell Athletic Bowl Location: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
2012 Russell Athletic Bowl Date/Time: Friday, December 28th, 5:30 p.m. (ET)
2012 Russell Athletic Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Key #1: Virginia Tech needs to establish a running game with someone other than Logan Thomas
It’s nice to think that QB Logan Thomas is a dual threat quarterback that has the ability to put up big gains with his legs, but you don’t establish a ground game with a quarterback. You do so by jamming the ball right up the middle with the big boys and a runner. Historically, whether it be RB Ryan Williams or RB David Wilson, the Hokies have always had a big, strong back that ended the year with at least 1,000 yards, if not more on the ground. This year though, there just hasn’t been a back step up to the plate and do much of anything. In fact, Head Coach Frank Beamer’s offense really hasn’t even tried all that hard to establish the run this year. RB JC Coleman, RB Michael Holmes, RB Tony Gregory, and RB Martin Scales only average carrying the ball 22.8 times per game between them, and that just isn’t good enough at this level when you’re playing in the ACC. Rutgers is a tough team to move out of the way up front, as its front seven is as good as any unit in the Big East. However, if the Hokies have any intentions of winning this game, they had better get something going on the ground.

Russell Athletic Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +2.5
Over/Under 41
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Key #2: These two quarterbacks have to hang onto the football
Both the Scarlet Knights and the Hokies threw 15 picks as a team this year, and neither QB Logan Thomas nor QB Gary Nova were able to make the big plays when their teams really needed it. Granted, Thomas does have a pair of receivers in WR Marcus Davis and WR Corey Fuller that both averaged nearly 20 yards per catch this year, so the deep ball was in play. However, Thomas also got himself into a lot of trouble in clutch spots in games to cost his team, which is why the Hokies have already been beaten by a pair of Big East teams this year. Nova was only picked off twice in his first six games of the year, but he threw six INTs against the Kent State Golden Flashes and has been intercepted six games in four games since that point. His confidence has to be shot, especially knowing that two of the last five passes that he threw in the de facto Big East Championship Game against the Louisville Cardinals were picked off to take away any hopes that the team had of playing in the BCS for the very first time.

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Key #3: The Hokies have to take advantage of the Rutgers special teams
It’s known as Beamer Ball in Blacksburg, and the time is here for Head Coach Frank Beamer’s specialty to shine through in the biggest game of the team’s season. It feels like it has been awhile since the team had a blocked punt or a blocked field goal for a touchdown in a crucial spot to win a game, but that might be what it takes in this one. P AJ Hughes averaged 40.3 yards per boot this year. The team had both a punt return and a kick return for a touchdown this year, and Dimitri Knowles was a fantastic kick returner, putting together 595 return yards this year on just 21 attempts. K Cody Journell has struggled at times, but he has made at least one field goal in every game this year against an FBS foe. Rutgers has had to rotate kickers this year, and P Justin Doerner only averaged 37.4 yards per punt, something that has been problematic for a defensive-minded football team all season long.

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2012 Holiday Bowl Predictions & Picks: Baylor vs. UCLA 12/27/12

December 27th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2012 Holiday Bowl Predictions & Picks: Baylor vs. UCLA 12/27/12
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Holiday Bowl2012 Holiday Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the UCLA Bruins and the Baylor Bears. Join us for our Holiday Bowl keys to the game, complete with our 2012 Baylor vs. UCLA predictions, only right here at Bankroll Sports.

2012 Holiday Bowl: UCLA Bruins vs. Baylor Bears
2012 Holiday Bowl Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
2012 Holiday Bowl Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 9:45 p.m. (ET)
2012 Holiday Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: One of these teams has to play some defense
It’s the obvious statement to make in a game when the ‘total’ is as high as any bowl game has ever seen at 82.5 (and rising), but it’s the truth in this one. We have seen UCLA play in some games like this one in the past, and the key to beating the Arizona Wildcats and the USC Trojans was the fact that the defense came up with two of its better games of the year in those victories. Baylor too, was only able to win games this year in which the defense at least made a few plays, such as allowing 34 points to the Oklahoma State Cowboys or 24 to the Kansas State Wildcats. It was really sad to think that this club scored 63 in a game and still lost by a touchdown to the West Virginia Mountaineers and then turned around three weeks later, scored 50 in Austin and still lost to the Texas Longhorns. It’s not going to take total Herculean efforts on either side to win this one, but whichever team can make a play here or a play there to help quell what would have been a touchdown drive in all likelihood will be the one that ultimately goes on to beat the Holiday Bowl odds.

Holiday Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
UCLA Bruins -3
Baylor Bears +3
Over/Under 82.5
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Key #2: The Baylor defense has to have an answer for Johnathan Franklin
About the only good news that the Baylor ‘D’ has to bring to the table in this game is that the club “only” ranks 90th in the NCAA in rush defense at 190.8 yards per game. Of course, a lot of that is because the teams in the Big XII are generally a lot more based upon the pass than the run, and the Bears themselves aren’t much of an exception to that rule. That being said, the Bruins would much rather keep the ball on the ground. QB Brett Hundley gets the job done with his feet, but the bell cow of this offense is RB Johnathan Franklin. With 1,701 rushing yards already under his belt, Franklin still has a chance to lead the nation in rushing if he can get over 200 yards on the ground in his final game. Don’t think that he is beyond doing it either, knowing that he just rumbled for 194 yards on a fantastic Stanford Cardinal defense in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Franklin has 4,370 rushing yards and a total of 34 TDs in his career, and he has put together 10 rushing TDs in his last seven games, including scoring at least twice in four out of those seven. This is a man that Baylor simply has to contain, knowing that Franklin has had at least 160 rushing yards in four of his last six.

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Key #3: Terrance Williams has to be the best receiver in the nation
No man had more receiving yards in the regular season this year than did Williams, who had 95 catches, 1,764 yards, and 12 TDs. He had eight of those scores in his first five games of the year though, which really brings up some questions down the stretch. Williams also only had a total of 24 receptions in his last four games, and he only exceeded 91 yards once in those four outings. We have seen this man explode before, as he has had four games this year with double digits worth of receptions, eight games with at least 130 yards, and four games in which he averaged at least 21 yards per catch. Williams has the talent to do anything that he wants to against this unit, but in the end, we have to remember that the Bruins, for all of their flaws defensive, did hold WR Marqise Lee to a relatively tame 9/158/1 stat line, most of which was picked up in the second half of that game against the Bruins. This secondary definitely doesn’t stink as bad as Baylor’s does, and that could make this a huge challenge for the Bears.

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Military Bowl Odds – San Jose State vs. Bowling Green 12/27

December 26th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Military Bowl Odds – San Jose State vs. Bowling Green 12/27
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Military Bowl LogoOur 2012 bowl predictions continue on Thursday, December 27th with the Military Bowl, and we are set to make our Military Bowl predictions, tips, and keys to the game for the duel between the San Jose State Spartans and the Bowling Green Falcons.

2012 Military Bowl: San Jose State Spartans vs. Bowling Green Falcons
2012 Military Bowl Location: RFK Stadium, Washington DC
2012 Military Bowl Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 3:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Military Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Bene Benwikere and the Spartans ‘D’ has to make some big plays
The Spartans have had some troubles over the course of the year stopping some of the higher octane offenses that the nation has had to offer. Granted, we do recognize the fact that this ‘D’ did allow just 21.4 points per game this year, but conceding 43 to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and 34 to the San Diego State Aztecs does raise an eyebrow or two. DB Bene Benwikere did pick off seven passes this year, leading a secondary that tied for 23rd in the nation with 15 INTs on the campaign, and the team forced a stunning 31 turnovers in just 12 games. A lot of those turnovers came against some of the miserable teams in the WAC though, and Benwikere and the SJSU defense has to be able to make some of these big plays against an offense that has been known to turn the ball over. QB Matt Schilz alone tossed 12 interceptions in 2012.

Military Bowl Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
San Jose State Spartans -7.5
Bowling Green Falcons +7.5
Over/Under 44
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Key #2: The Bowling Green defensive backs have to contain the passing attack
The Falcons allowed just 173.0 yards per game this year, so they know what it takes to be able to slow down some solid passing games. None of the quarterbacks that have been seen this year though, have had nearly as good of a year as QB David Fales has had. Not only does Fales have 31 TD passes, and not only does he have 3,797 passing yards already, but he has been incredibly efficient as well. Fales has completed 72.1 percent of his passes, and he has averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt. More important might be the fact that both WR Noel Grigsby and WR Ryan Otten both averaged at least 16 yards per catch this year. That’s a heck of a lot of big time plays, and it almost seems expected that these two are going to figure out how to get the job done. Still, those big plays have to be limited, or the MAC reps are in some big time trouble.

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Key #3: The Falcons can’t get killed in special teams
The third phase game is most certainly advantage to the Spartans. K Austin Lopez knocked in 15-of-16 field goals on the campaign, and he is just four points shy of 100 for the season. P Harrison Waid averaged 42.4 yards per punt, while as a team, San Jose State averaged 26.3 yards per kickoff return. Bowling Green has had kicking problems all year long, knocking down just 7-of-15 field goals along the way. K Stephen Stein is the short range kicker, as he only has kicks made from 26-yards and further in this year, while K Tyler Tate has just five field goals, none of which have been longer than 42 yards. The punting game has averaged a solid 41.8 yards per game, but the kickoff return game has averaged just 18.6 yards per kick return. This really doesn’t bode well for the Falcons, and they have to keep this game remotely close in the special teams battle if they want to cover the Military Bowl odds.

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Cincinnati vs. Duke Predictions & Analysis: 2012 Belk Bowl 12/27

December 26th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Cincinnati vs. Duke Predictions & Analysis: 2012 Belk Bowl 12/27
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Belk BowlThe 2012 Belk Bowl picks are going to be difficult to make, as the Cincinnati Bearcats and Duke Blue Devils are set to do battle with one another in a Big East vs. ACC battle. Check out our Belk Bowl predictions and the keys to the game for Cincinnati vs. Duke.

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2012 Belk Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils
2012 Belk Bowl Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
2012 Belk Bowl Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 6:30 p.m. (ET)
2012 Belk Bowl Television Coverage: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Key #1: The Blue Devils have to prove they can play with the big boys
The Belk Bowl isn’t exactly a BCS bowl game or anything of the sorts, but this is as big of a stage as the Blue Devils have played on in quite some time. They haven’t been in a bowl game in 17 years, and they haven’t won one in over 50 years. That’s a heck of a long time for a team to wait between bowl appearances or bowl victories. Duke played great ball this year against some lousy teams to start the season, but what we have to remember is that there wasn’t a win against a bowl eligible team to show for its work. Head Coach David Cutcliffe and the gang went 0-6 SU and ATS against teams that were bowl eligible and 6-0 SU and ATS against teams that weren’t eligible. The only asterisk to that mark was the fact that the North Carolina Tar Heels would have been eligible if not for the fact that they were faced with a bowl ban handed down by the NCAA. In their last four games of the season, the Blue Devils were outscored by an average score of 49-24.

Famous Belk Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bearcats -9.5
Duke Blue Devils +9.5
Over/Under 60.5
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Key #2: George Winn has to find the end zone for UC
The equation really is frighteningly simple for the Bearcats this year. When RB George Winn has found the end zone, they have done tremendously well. When he hasn’t, they haven’t. Winn has 12 touchdowns on the season spread over six different games. In those games that he has scored, the Cats have averaged 36.0 points per game. In those six outings, Winn has averaged 110.0 rushing yards per game. When he hasn’t scored, Winn has averaged just 90.7 yards per game, and the team has been good for only 26.0 points per game (21.0 points per game against FBS teams). There is a good chance for Winn to get into the end zone in this game against a Duke outfit that has allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in its last seven games.

Key #3: Duke’s seniors have to play like seniors
QB Sean Renfree has started for three seasons for the Blue Devils, while WR Connor Vernon is now in his fourth straight campaign starting. These two men arguably been the best QB/WR tandem that the Blue Devils have had in decades, and it is really showing. Renfree threw for 2,755 yards and 18 TDs this year, and he now has a total of 55 TDs between passing and rushing in the last three campaigns. Vernon has had 273 receptions, 3,630 yards, and 20 trips to the end zone in his four campaigns. He wrapped up his regular season finale with 11 catches, 109 yards, and two scores against Miami, and that marked the third time this year that he had multiple touchdowns in an outing. This is a game where the Blue Devils have everything stacked against them, and if they are going to figure out how to beat the Belk Bowl odds, they’ll need great contributions from their big time leaders that have been around the team for a long time.

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Western Kentucky vs Central Michigan Little Caesars Bowl Pick 12/26

December 24th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Western Kentucky vs Central Michigan Little Caesars Bowl Pick 12/26
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Little Caesars Bowl LogoThe X’s and O’s of the Little Caesars Bowl predictions aren’t shared by many expert handicappers, but here at Bankroll Sports, we are giving up all of our insight and telling you all of the keys to the game for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas. The Little Caesars Bowl picks are some of the hardest to make this year of all of the bowl games, so don’t miss out on all of our Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan predictions!

2012 Little Caesars Bowl: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
2012 Little Caesars Bowl Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
2012 Little Caesars Bowl Date/Time: Wednesday, December 26th, 7:30 p.m. (ET)
2012 Little Caesars Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: Central Michigan has to figure out how to score against a bowl team
The Chippewas haven’t done a whole heck of a lot over the course of the year against bowl teams this year. They won just six games, and none of those games came against bowl teams. In fact, Central Michigan was crushed 41-7 by the Michigan State Spartans, 55-24 by the Northern Illinois Huskies, 50-35 by the Toledo Rockets, 31-13 by the Navy Midshipmen, and 41-30 by the Ball State Cardinals. That’s nothing but losses, and all of those losses came by at least 11 points, while many of the games weren’t even remotely close. Granted, this is likely just as bad, if not the worst of all of the bowl teams that the Chippies have played thus far this year, but still, the situation remains the same. This isn’t Akron, or Eastern Michigan, or Massachusetts, or any of the other lousy teams that CMU beat this year. This is a legitimate game against a team that has won 14 games over the course of the last season and a half.

Little Caesars Bowl Odds at BetRevolution Sportsbook
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -5.5
Central Michigan Chippewas +5.5
Over/Under 57.5
Click Here to Bet Your Little Caesars Bowl Picks!

Key #2: The moment cannot be too big for the Hilltoppers
It has got to be good to be a Hilltopper right now. Western Kentucky has won those 14 games over the course of the last two seasons. It is unfortunate that the Hilltoppers and Head Coach Willie Taggart are no longer a unit, as Taggart has left for the brighter lights of the South Florida Bulls, but the man that is coming to town now is Bobby Petrino. Petrino might have a checkered past, but there is no doubt that he has won just about everywhere that he has gone, and he should be winning at WKU as well. That being said, this is the first bowl game that the Hilltoppers have ever played in, they have to prove that they are ready to play at this level. Last year, they were snubbed out of a bowl game in spite of the fact that they finished out the year by winning seven of their last eight games and covering nine in a row. This is a veteran team led by QB Kawaun Jakes, but in the end, the team has to prove that it is truly good enough to handle this moment of playing in a bowl game in a standalone time slot against a reasonable team, though this is a nice spot against what is clearly the worst of all of the 70 bowl teams this year.

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Key #3: The Chippewas have to figure out how to stop the run
It is clear that RB Antonio Andrews has to be a monster on the ground for the Hilltoppers to win their first ever bowl game. He rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 TDs this season, and he has taken right over for RB Bobby Rainey, who has been one of the most accomplished rushers in the country over the course of the last few years. Andrews rushed for 230 and 238 yards in his last two games of the year, and he averaged 5.8 yards per carry this year. Andrews also averaged 154.3 yards per game on the ground in his last 10 games of the year, and he had at least 88 yards in all of those games. Central Michigan ranked 97th in the country against the run at 196.7 yards per game allowed. That number was all the way up to 246.8 yards per game against teams that qualified for bowl games this year. If all of that continues in this game, this game could end up being a blowout.

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2012 Hawaii Bowl Predictions & Picks: Fresno State vs. SMU 12/24/12

December 24th, 2012 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on 2012 Hawaii Bowl Predictions & Picks: Fresno State vs. SMU 12/24/12
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Hawaii Bowl2012 Hawaii Bowl picks are going to be entertaining to make this year, as we have two teams that are going to be going at it against each other in what could be an unpredictable game in the SMU Mustangs and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Join us for our Hawaii Bowl keys to the game and our Fresno State vs. SMU predictions.

2012 Hawaii Bowl: SMU Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
2012 Hawaii Bowl Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
2012 Hawaii Bowl Date/Time: Monday, December 24th, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
2012 Hawaii Bowl On TV: ESPN, Watch ESPN

Click Here For The Rest Of The 2012-13 Bowl Game Schedule And Other Bowl Game Previews

Key #1: The Mustangs have to not get trampled defensively
All too often in these bowl games, one of the two teams (and it isn’t always the inferior team) just gets trampled defensively. Teams come out of the blocks with guns blazing, and in the blink of an eye, 21 points hit the scoreboard, making it virtually impossible to get back in the game. SMU’s offense isn’t good enough in all likelihood against a stout defense to come back from down three scores to win, so the unit really has to make sure that it doesn’t just get run all over right out of the blocks. The Mustangs will especially have some problems if they end up letting QB Derek Carr throw the ball all over the place, as this team ranks just 107th in the country, allowing 271.2 yards per game. Five teams were able to put at least 36 up against the Mustangs this year, but that just can’t happen if they are going to figure out how to stay in this game. Fresno State will get its points, but the hope is to keep it so gobs of points don’t get on the scoreboard.

Hawaii Bowl Odds at BetGuardian Sportsbook
SMU Mustangs +11.5
Fresno State Bulldogs -11.5
Over/Under 59.5
Click Here to Bet Your Hawaii Bowl Picks!

Key #2: SMU has to figure out how to not lose the turnover battle
The reason that the Mustangs won six games this year is because their defense, though sometimes shoddy, did manage to force 33 turnovers in just 12 games. It was crucial for sure to keep this team in the fold, knowing that the offense only turned the ball over a total of 21 times, giving the Mustangs a +1.0 turnover per game advantage. The Bulldogs though, ranked tied for fifth in America in turnover margin at +17 for the year. Turnovers are the great equalizers in these bowl games for sure, and it is going to be tough for either of these teams to win this game from behind in that category. QB Derek Carr isn’t likely to make mistakes, knowing that he only threw six INTs all year long. QB Garrett Gilbert though, is a much different story. He had 13 picks, and he barely completed half of his passes in some of his games. If the Mustangs win this game, we would bet that they are at least +2 in the turnover category as a result.

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Key #3: Fresno State has to stay balanced and keep the ball in Robbie Rouse’s hands
Fresno State has always had a great tradition of solid running backs, and RB Robbie Rouse is the next in that line. He rushed for 1,468 yards and had 406 more as a receiver, totaling 14 TDs as well. This is a back that is truly a horse, as Rouse now has 598 carries over the course of the last two seasons alone. When the ball is in his hands, good things tend to happen. Rouse got over 100 rushing yards in nine of his 12 games this year, and the one game that wasn’t covered or won, the 20-10 loss on the Smurf Turf at the Boise State Broncos, he had just 77 rushing yards. Carr will do the job that he needs to do, but the team can’t get pass happy. To cover a number like this one, it is going to take a nicely poised game with a lot of touches from Rouse to get the job done. Don’t be shocked if Rouse has another humongous game like he did against the Nevada Wolf Pack, as he rushed for 261 yards on 36 carries in that 52-36 victory. If he does, the Mustangs are in a heck of a lot of trouble.

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