Posts Tagged ‘NCAA Football Picks’

GoDaddy.com Bowl Picks: Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami Analysis

January 6th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on GoDaddy.com Bowl Picks: Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami Analysis

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After taking the first day off in weeks, college football betting action is back at it on Thursday night with the GoDaddy.com Bowl, which features a pair of teams that have had some interesting seasons this year. By all accounts, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders underachieved mightily in 2010, finishing at .500 in the regular season in a year in which many in Murfreesboro thought that they were running the table. The Miami Redhawks had perhaps the best transformation in the nation this year, changing from a 1-11 team to one that won the MAC and is on the verge of a double digit win season. Which team has the edge to beat the GoDaddy.com Bowl odds? Find out with these three keys to the game.

Key #1: Dwight Dasher has to put aside a disastrous season to finish out his career on a high note
Simply put, when QB Dwight Dasher doesn’t play well, the Blue Raiders are in a lot of trouble on a regular basis. We saw that at the outset of the season when he was suspended for four games, and we are likely to see that one last time here against the GoDaddy.com Bowl odds if he doesn’t perform at his highest abilities on Thursday. What we know about Dasher is that he is one heck of an athlete. He has the ability to throw for 300 yards and rush for 200 yards in the same game, and he proved it last year at the New Orleans Bowl when he threw for 162 yards and two scores and rushed for 201 yards and two scores in a thumping of the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. One year after throwing for 2,789 yards and rushing for 1,154 more on the ground, his numbers were basically cut by more than half. He only threw for 1,377 yards and rushed for 453 yards, totaling 13 TDs, which was a mere 23 fewer than he had in all of 2009. The one category Dasher didn’t come down in though, was INTs. He threw 14 this season just like he did last year, and one more would set a career high. If there’s any consolation, in his last regular season game, Dasher did account for over 300 yards of offense against the Sun Belt champs, the Florida International Golden Panthers, so he is clearly capable of making some huge waves here at the GoDaddy.com Bowl.

GoDaddy.com Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
MTSU Blue Raiders -2.5
Miami Redhawks +2.5
Over/Under 48.5
Click Here to Bet on Your GoDaddy.com Bowl Picks!

Key #2: The Redhawks need to find a leader on the field
QB Zac Dysert really cut his teeth last year, throwing for 2,611 yards and 12 scores against 16 picks in the disastrous season in 2009, but he came back this year as a sophomore and was ready to carry the load for the Redhawks. He really played well, throwing for 2,406 yards and 13 TDs versus 12 INTs, but a lacerated spleen took him out of the lineup in the middle of November, and he has not, and is not expected to return to the lineup this year. With Dysert down, Head Coach Mike Haywood was really able to rally his troops, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, to make a big difference. Now, Haywood is gone as well, having left for the bluer waters that the University of Pittsburgh had to offer before it fired him just days later after being arrested for a potential domestic violence charge. Someone needs to step up to replace these two strong forces for Miami to have a shot of beating the GoDaddy.com Bowl lines.

Key #3: Austin Boucher has to play like the man that won the MAC this year
Of course, we are referencing the 26-21 upset over the Northern Illinois Huskies as whopping 18.5 point underdogs that represented one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. The Redhawks came into that one without Dysert, and backup QB Austin Boucher was simply on fire. The frosh went 29-of-46 for 333 yards and a TD in that game, and he is going to need a similar performance to keep up with Dasher and the Blue Raiders. The biggest problem the Redhawks have is that they really don’t have that many offensive weapons to rely on. Sure, WR Armand Robinson and WR Nick Harwell both had pretty good years this year, but someone has to get them the football. No one else on the team had even 30 catches or even 350 yards on the year through the air, while on the other end of the offense, Thomas Merriweather accounted for over half the yards on the ground with 821 and a third of the scores for the entire team with ten.

Sugar Bowl Picks: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

January 3rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   1 Comment »

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The Ohio State Buckeyes could be reaching the end of an era this week at the Sugar Bowl, where they are going to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. There are storylines galore to analyze before making our NCAA football picks in this one, and we have the three keys to the game that you have to watch out for here at Bankroll Sports!

Key #1: The Buckeyes have to let the off the field issues stay off the field
Though we know that QB Terrelle Pryor, WR DeVier Posey, and RB Daniel Herron are amongst the five players that have vowed to come back for their senior seasons next year, we aren’t so sure that that is going to be the case. These five juniors, all of which are eligible to go to the NFL Draft next year if they please, were at the center of a scandal in which they were suspended for the first five games of next season. Head Coach Jim Tressel and company were lucky to find out that none of the top Buckeyes were suspended for the biggest game of the season in the Sugar Bowl, though. That being said, nothing is stopping these players from hopping out of Columbus right after this game is over, never getting punished for their actions. All of these distractions could be a tremendous key in this game. If OSU isn’t focused, it is going to be punished by a well disciplined bunch of Razorbacks. The Buckeyes also have to forget about that the Big Ten was dominated on New Year’s Day is bowl games. They are a totally different team this year than the rest of this conference was, and they can’t let the conference’s 2-5 record stop them.

Sugar Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5
Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5
Over/Under 57
Click Here to Bet on Your Sugar Bowl Picks!

Key #2: This Buckeye defense has to be as nasty as advertised
After watching the TCU Horned Frogs take down the Wisconsin Badgers in the Rose Bowl, we’re not really so sure about this argument, but this Ohio State defense really could have been the best in the nation this year. The Buckeyes held teams to just 251.6 yards per game this year, and though this was a country mile away from what the Horned Frogs allowed, it was still easily good enough to finish second in the land. OSU ranked No. 6 or better in the land in every single major defensive categories this year. Allowing 13.3 points per game this year, and this was a stat that would have been a lot better had this unit not been victim to a number of special teams and offensive blunders. We also have to remember that this was a fairly brutal schedule this year, and the only team that scored more than 24 points against this ‘D’ was the Wisconsin Badgers.

Key #3: Ryan Mallett has to continue spreading the ball around to the rest of his offensive weapons
Mallett was one of the most unheralded quarterbacks in the nation this year, and we are somewhat bothered by the fact that he really has fallen off of the map as a potential top NFL prospect. We’re not so sure that he isn’t the best signal caller in the land as a pure passer, and that includes Heisman Trophy winner QB Cam Newton in his own conference. Mallett completed 66.5 percent of his passes this year for 3,592 yards and 30 TDs against 11 picks in the toughest conference in America. The recently declared QB Blaine Gabbert for the Missouri Tigers is supposedly a Top 20 pick in the NFL Draft, and he might be up into the Top 5 when push comes to shove. This is really the chance for Mallett to shine against one of the best defenses in the country, though. We also have to remember that Mallett hasn’t had WR Greg Childs since the end of October. Still, there are going to be six receivers on this team that end up with more than 600 yards for the season assuming that TE DJ Williams has at least 11 yards for the game. There are a ton of speed burners on this team right now. WR Cobi Hamilton is averaging 19.6 yards per reception to lead this team, but WR Jarius Wright is at 18.9 yards per catch as well. WR Joe Adams is at 16.9 yards per catch to boot. This is why Mallett is averaging almost ten yards per time that he drops back to throw the pigskin. If that keeps up, the Hogs have a great chance at pulling off the upset.

Orange Bowl Picks: Stanford Cardinal vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

January 2nd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   1 Comment »
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The BCS has already played two of its four games before the BCS Championship Game coming in another week’s time, but this one might be the most highly anticipated duel of the bunch. The Stanford Cardinal will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies, and making your Orange Bowl picks in this game couldn’t be any more difficult. In order to get through the brutal selection in this game between these two very evenly matched squads, take a look at the three keys to the game in the Orange Bowl.

Key #1: The Hokies just need to continue to ride the wave of momentum
You’ll be hard pressed to find a team in the country that is hotter than Virginia Tech is right now. The Hokies have just been dominating since the middle of September, and it is clear that if the season started in Week 3, they would be playing in the BCS National Championship Game right now and not in the Orange Bowl. Yes, V-Tech’s season was effectively over after a bad loss to the James Madison Dukes, but Head Coach Frank Beamer arguably did the best job of any coach in the country this year, motivating his team to win 11 straight games and to go 10-1 ATS in the interim. It’s not as though this has been a lousy schedule either. The only games against teams that aren’t in bowl games this year included those against the Central Michigan Chippewas and three games against conference foes that could not have been avoided. Aside from that though, they were all in bowl games, and all finished the season in fine form. We also know that this team is every bit as good as the best in the land, as was proven in the 33-30 loss to the Boise State Broncos right at the outset of the season.

Orange Bowl Odds at JustBet
Stanford Cardinal -3.5
Virginia Tech Hokies +3.5
Over/Under 58
Click Here to Bet on Your Orange Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Andrew Luck needs to prove that he is worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft
You know that the Carolina Panthers are going to be watching this game intently on Monday night. Luck has only started for the Cardinal for two years, but he has already shown that he has what it takes to play at the next level. The question is still there though, whether he was a product of tearing apart the Pac-10, or whether he really is that good and is ready to lead a franchise the same way the QB Matt Ryan did in Atlanta or how QB Sam Bradford has with the Rams. This is a tremendous game that could be worth literally millions of dollars to Luck. The Stanford QB threw for 3,045 yards and 28 TDs on the season, and he had one of the highest completion percentages in the country at 70.4 percent. This time though, instead of going against a Pac-10 team, Luck has to go against a Virginia Tech defense that was lights out for the majority of the year. The Hokies only surrendered 199.3 yards per game through the air this year, one of the top marks in the ACC. When push came to shove, VT only allowed 19.1 points per game.

Key #3: The Stanford defense needs to shut down the Hokies’ rushing attack
We know that RB Darren Evans is going to be suspended for the first quarter of the Orange Bowl this week, but we also know that there are a number of different players that have the ability of stepping up and carrying the ball if need be. Evans rushed for 813 yards and 11 TDs this year, while RB David Wilson had 616 yards and five scores on the ground as well. There is always last year’s ACC Freshman of the Year to remember in RB Ryan Williams, who had 477 yards and nine trips to the end zone. When all else fails though, QB Tyrod Taylor can just take off on his own. Taylor might have thrown for 2,521 yards this year, but he had a huge contribution to the rushing game as well with 637 yards and five TDs. Stanford only allowed 123.1 yards per game this year on the ground, but what we have to remember is that this was a team that did allow 626 total yards, 388 of which came in the rushing game, against the Oregon Ducks. V-Tech’s offense isn’t what that of Oregon’s is by any stretch of the imagination, but it is the closest comparison that we have to work with.

Fiesta Bowl Picks: UConn Huskies vs. Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

December 31st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Fiesta Bowl Picks: UConn Huskies vs. Oklahoma Sooners Analysis

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Upon completion of the Rose Bowl, the eyes of the college football betting world will head to Glendale, where the Connecticut Huskies will play their first BCS bowl game in school history against the Oklahoma Sooners. There are three tremendous keys to this game that we must remember in order to beat the Fiesta Bowl odds on New Year’s night.

Key #1: Connecticut has to act like it has been here before
We know that the Huskies have never played in a game of any sort of magnitude like this, but they have to believe that they can beat the most difficult team on their schedule this year. Last year, the Cincinnati Bearcats won the Big East and got a huge reality check when they were absolutely crippled by the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. We also remember when the Pittsburgh Panthers, the only team in the history of the BCS that wasn’t unranked in one of these tremendous games, getting blasted by the Utah Utes. Being in this game for the first time, Head Coach Randy Edsall has his work cut out for him against one of the proudest programs in the history of college football. The Sooners have to ratchet up the pressure in a hurry to be able to take the fight out of these Huskies as well… which leads us to…

Fiesta Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
UConn Huskies +16.5
Oklahoma Sooners -16.5
Over/Under 54.5
Click Here to Bet on Your Fiesta Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Connecticut absolutely cannot fall behind in this game
If you’re the Huskies, you want the ball first, and you want to set a tempo in this game. The only way UConn is hanging in there is if it gets something established in the ground game and keeps this contest as short as possible. The clock has to keep running, and the offense has to keep the Sooners off of the field. The main reason for this is to keep RB Jordan Todman rolling. Todman knows that he is going to have to be called upon at least 25 times in this game to have absolutely any chance of helping his team pull off the upset. He has already carried the ball 302 times this year and was one of the best backs in the country at 1,574 yards and 14 scores. More importantly though, Edsall knows that he doesn’t have a quarterback that is good enough to compete against a big time Big XII foe. QB Zach Frazer has only completed 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,202 yards and five TDs on the campaign. None of the quarterback options are solid. QB Cody Endres was dismissed from the team, while QB Michael Box started once this year and proved that he couldn’t get the job done. The ball just has to keep on the ground, but if the Huskies are two scores down, that really isn’t going to be an option.

Key #3: The Sooners need to exorcize the demons from Fiesta Bowls past
This is the biggest thing for Head Coach Bob Stoops to worry about in his locker room. The Sooners have to have nightmares about playing here in Glendale, as this is where the Boise State Broncos and West Virginia Mountaineers both pulled off tremendous upsets. The Broncos simply caught Oklahoma by surprise in a year in which Stoops’ men were disappointed that that they weren’t playing for the BCS Championship. West Virginia used the motivation of the “whole world is against us” in the first game in the post Rich Rodriguez era. Oklahoma knows that it is the superior team in this game and that it should be able to just use its willpower to take care of the Huskies. However, this was also the case a few times before. If the Sooners can get past this and treat this like an entirely different game against another inferior team, they should be fine.

Rose Bowl Picks: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers Analysis

December 31st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Rose Bowl Picks: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers Analysis
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The BCS gets started on Saturday afternoon in the traditional Rose Bowl in Pasadena. The “Granddaddy of Them All” this year doesn’t feature a Pac-10 team for the second time in the last six years. Instead, the TCU Horned Frogs become the first team from a mid major conference to crash the party in Pasadena in the modern era. They’ll have to put their undefeated regular season record on the line against the Wisconsin Badgers, who won the Big Ten in a three team tiebreaker. These two squads know that they have a lot to prove in this one, but which team will beat the Rose Bowl lines? You can’t afford to miss these keys to the Rose Bowl.

Key #1: Wisconsin needs to physically overwhelm the Horned Frogs
If there is potentially one knock on this TCU team this year, it is that it is a relatively undersized bunch that hasn’t had to deal with the physical nature of the major conference foes. Sure, beating the Oregon State Beavers, Utah Utes, etc. is nice, but this is a tremendously different type of challenge. The Badgers have three rushers that would be starters and lone backs on most other teams in the country in the form of RB John Clay, RB Montee Ball, and RB James White. These three are all just bruising backs that run behind one of the biggest offensive lines in the country. There is no doubt that the Badgers are going to be coming after the heart of a TCU defense that ranked No. 1 in the land both overall and in scoring, allowing just 11.4 points per game on the campaign. Clay, Ball, and White can all end with 1,000 yards on the season on the ground, and if they do pull it off, they would be the second trio in the history of college football to accomplish the feat. They would also be the first trio of pure running backs to all have at least four digits in yards as well, as the Nevada Wolf Pack did it with QB Colin Kaepernick and two backs.

Rose Bowl Odds at JustBet
TCU Horned Frogs -2.5
Wisconsin Badgers +2.5
Over/Under 57
Click Here to Bet on Your Rose Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Andy Dalton has to be a real winner
All too often in these battles between the big boys and the little giants, the quarterback ends up being the man that makes the big difference. Remember QB Jared Zabransky against the Georgia Bulldogs? Or what about “Z” the next year in the Fiesta Bowl? Two totally different games, two totally different results. Another case of horrible play was Hawaii’s QB Colt Brennan against the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. Dalton is the winningest quarterback in TCU history, and he is going to have to prove it in this one. The Wisky defense has stopped some of the best passing attacks that the Big Ten has to offer, and though these Horned Frogs prefer to run the ball, Dalton is going to have to make his throws. The senior completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 2,638 yards and 26 TDs this year, but more importantly, he only threw six picks. Dalton absolutely cannot turn the ball over in this game, or the Badgers are going to eat TCU for lunch on the other side of the ball.

Key #3: Scott Tolzien is going to have to make a few plays
When you have 44 rushing touchdowns between the three backs behind you, you don’t really have to do a whole heck of a lot. However, if the rushing game doesn’t do the job, Tolzien is going to have to make a few plays to keep things moving. Wisconsin quarterbacks aren’t rich in history, especially in bowl games, but Tolzien can be the exception to the rule in the biggest bowl game that this team has been at in quite some time. Tolzien threw for 2,300 yards and completed 74.3 percent of his passes, and just a few big shots will loosen up the purple and black defense and could set up a tremendous day for this offense. Don’t forget about how good WR Lance Kendricks and WR Nick Toon really are. Kendricks only caught 39 passes on the year, but he averaged 16.1 yards per catch and had five scores. Toon came back from an injury early in the season, and he came on strong with 33 grabs, 413 yards, and three TDs.

Gator Bowl Picks: Mississippi State vs. Michigan Analysis

December 31st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Gator Bowl Picks: Mississippi State vs. Michigan Analysis

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In the third game of the “New Year’s Resolution” between the SEC and the Big Ten, the Gator Bowl will pit the Mississippi State Bulldogs against the Michigan Wolverines. These two teams have taken very different paths to get here this year, but they are both going to be proud to be here in Jacksonville. But which team will beat the Gator Bowl odds at Ever Bank Stadium? The three keys to this game are going to be the difference.

Key #1: Mississippi State’s defense has to use the exact same game plan it used against Auburn
It’s not often that you see Auburn Tigers QB Cam Newton be held down in a game, but that’s exactly what happened when he faced these Bulldogs early in the season. Now, what we need to remember is that this was several months ago before we even knew that Newton was going to be a Heisman candidate, let alone a runaway winner of the award. On that day, he rushed for just 70 yards and threw for just 136 yards and two total scores with a pick. The Tigers were held to just 350 yards on the day, and the Bulldogs were able to stay alive every step of the way to nearly pull off the upset. (However, on that day, MSU was only a one point underdog.) QB Denard Robinson is built in the exact same mold as Newton from the standpoint that he will look to throw the ball after he checks his running options. Newton was originally viewed as a poor man’s Robinson, but what ended up happening was the exact opposite. Still, this is a dynamic rusher that can make a lot of things happen, but the MSU defense needs to figure out how to contain him.

Gator Bowl Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Mississippi State Bulldogs -4.5
Michigan Wolverines +4.5
Over/Under 59.5
Click Here to Bet on Your Gator Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Michigan has to keep Robinson clean
The problem with Robinson is that he is really a one man band on this team. He handled the ball 495 times this year, 245 of them coming on the ground. He really has no regard for his body at times and takes a tremendous beating. Michigan had to switch to backup QB Tate Forcier on several instances over the course of the year when Robinson either wasn’t at his best or when he had taken a few too many shots. In this game though, Forcier won’t be here. He was ruled academically ineligible for this game, which really just leaves Robinson to take care of himself. The offensive line has to do a great job taking care of him in the pocket, and RB Vincent Smith and RB Michael Shaw might have to do some more carrier of the football at times if Head Coach Rich Rodriguez wants to stay competitive in this game. If anything happens to Robinson, Big Blue is finished.

Key #3: Someone has to step up in the passing game for the Bulldogs
We know that it just isn’t in the nature of the Bulldogs to try to throw the ball all that much, but this secondary for Michigan is very, very bad 260.2 yards per game allowed. Normally speaking, QB Chris Relf would be trying to get the ball in the air to WR Chad Bumphis. However, Bumphis isn’t likely to be in the lineup in this one due to a collarbone injury. Both WR Malcolm Johnson and WR Leon Berry are questionable as well, while TE Marcus Green is definitely out of the game. Relf only threw the ball 195 times this year for 1,495 yards and nine scores, but a ton of his passes were in the direction of his top receiver. With Bumphis out, WR Arceto Clark becomes the team’s top receiver. The problem with that? Clark only had 22 catches for 317 yards and a pair of TDs. Someone has to step it up in a big way to be able to keep this offense balanced.

Capital One Bowl Picks: Alabama vs. Michigan State Analysis

December 31st, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on Capital One Bowl Picks: Alabama vs. Michigan State Analysis

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The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans might not be playing in a BCS game this year, but they are certainly going to be playing in the most illustrious of all of the non-BCS bowls on New Year’s Day, as they’ll meet in Capital One Bowl betting action on New Year’s Eve. Head Coach Nick Saban is going to be facing off with one of his former squads, and the action should be tense, so before you make your Capital One Bowl picks in this one, check out our keys to the game.

Key #1: Saban needs to prove that he can coach in a game that isn’t for a championship
Sure, we know that Saban does have the ability to win games that don’t have that much significance in it, but we’re wondering about these last few seasons. Alabama looked very, very flat at times down the stretch this year, especially in the second half of the Iron Bowl against the Auburn Tigers and for a good chunk of the game against the LSU Tigers as well. The last time the Crimson Tide played in a game that didn’t have a direct impact on the BCS Championship race for the Tide, they were crushed by the Utah Utes, a team that they were supposed to be significantly better than. Now, not only is Alabama not playing in the BCS Championship Game, but it isn’t playing in a BCS bowl game whatsoever. Can the Tide stay mentally tough? We know that the Spartans will, as this is their best bowl bid in years. This might be the biggest key to the entire game.

Capital One Bowl Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Michigan State Spartans +10
Over/Under 52
Click Here to Bet on Your Capital One Bowl Picks!

Key #2: A relatively fresh Mark Ingram needs to look like a Heisman Trophy winner
Sure, RB Mark Ingram wasn’t anywhere near as good this year as he was when he won the Heisman Trophy last year, but he is still an incredibly dangerous runner that can rip apart any defense in the country. Ingram was really used a ton last year, as he rushed the ball 271 times and had another 32 receptions in the Heisman Trophy campaign. This year, Ingram was dealing with injuries at the start of the season, but he just wasn’t used as much as he was the year before in general. Rushing for 816 yards was a bitter disappointment for a man that that had double that last year. You want to prove that you’re still one of the best in the nation? Do something that the Wisconsin Badgers and their vaunted rushing attack couldn’t do. Beat up a big, physical Michigan State defense that only averaged allowing 114.0 yards per game this year. The Spartans didn’t allow a single team to score more than 31 points this year, and it’s going to be up to Ingram to make that not stay the case this week.

Key #3: The Spartans cannot be intimidated
If you’re Head Coach Mark Dantonio, you know that you have nothing to lose in this game. Even though you’re easily the higher ranked team, no one is expecting you to win, so even losing by 20 wouldn’t be a bitter disappointment. A win, and you’ve beaten the defending champs. Michigan State has to pretend like this is just any other game. It is a power running team, and even though the Crimson Tide have one of the more vaunted rush defenses in the nation. When the Spartans are ready to take their shots, they should take them and have confidence in QB Kirk Cousins to not turn the ball over. This was a team that averaged 408.5 yards per game against some of the best teams in the Big Ten this year, including that aforementioned win against the Badgers. As long as Michigan State believes in itself, it should be able to compete in the Capital One Bowl.