2014 NFL MVP Odds & MVP Value Picks
August 7th, 2014 by | Posted in NFL Football Comments Off on 2014 NFL MVP Odds & MVP Value Picks
The 2014 NFL football campaign is upon us, making it a great time to take a hard look at the fantasy nerd’s favorite award. 
Which player will make his presence known throughout the league this year while posting the most ridiculous numbers?
A complete list of the 2014 NFL MVP odds, (courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook), can be found by scrolling to the bottom of this post. We’ll offer some MVP picks for guys we think are being offered at a considerable bargain. We went through a few of the favorites, long shots, biggest NFL stars, and guys we think have value. There’s a few of the league’s big names being offered at a very competitive prices. We’ll also discuss which players we feel are over-priced.
Advanced Warning To NFL Fanboys – This is an article for bettors who are looking to make sharper value bets. NFL Fanboys should bear in mind that when we say your favorite player is over-priced, it doesn’t mean we are disrespecting him, nor does it mean we are saying that the player has no chance to win the MVP. We’re simply stating the chances are probably less (or similar) than the books offering. Any player on this list has a chance to win the MVP and is a top NFL player. So, there no need to go blasting the comments when reading our “value picks for NFL MVP”. If you have enlightened comments about the prices, we would love to hear them.
Here’s our take on some of the heavily bet, and not-so-heavily bet, players along with their current odds to win the MVP, heading into the 2014 NFL football campaign.
Player Price With Absolutely No Value (No Value At All):
Current Odds on Favorite: Peyton Manning (QB – Denver Broncos)
Peyton Manning’s 2014 Odds to win the NFL MVP: 3.6 to 1 (or +360)
It should come as no surprise that Manning is the favorite to win the 2014 NFL MVP this season due to his gaudy offensive numbers last year. Manning shattered the record books last year with 5477 yards and 55 touchdowns. Although, Peyton has the majority of his supporting cast back (in Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker), Eric Decker, who was 2nd in the team in receptions last year, is now a New York Jet. The Broncos are hoping that former Steeler, Emmanuel Sanders will fill the void, but it’s not really an upgrade. Obviously, Denver will once again be a contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, due to the inferior competition in the conference and their division. However, the AFC west D-coordinators have had their share of looks at Manning now and you better believe they had their notebooks out when they watched a rugged NFC West defense bottle him up in the Superbowl. These improving west coast squads may be better prepared to slow the Denver offense down a little bit. Throw in the fact that Manning is another year older and a bad start to the 2014 season may wear him down mentally and force him to consider retirement. Obviously, if healthy, he should put up solid numbers once again, but a 4 to 1 payout is not worth letting the books hold your money all year (while you hope Sir Peyton can light up the league again).
Player Available At Massive Price Reduction (Serious Value):
Tom Brady (QB – New England Patriots)
NFL MVP Odds For Tom Brady: 12 to 1 (or +1200)
Tommy had somewhat of a down year (statistically speaking) last season, but there were lots of reasons for it; not excuses….reasons (there’s a difference). An endless number of bad beats were taken by the New England Patriots, from the very start, right to the end of the 2013-14 season. Aaron Hernandez was unexpectedly removed from the offense and thrown in the clink before the season started, our favorite youtube club dancer, Rob Gronkowski, was injured for a better part of the season. Brady also he had to mesh with 2 new wide receivers. Now that Gronkowski is healthy, Julian Edelman is back, and with their young receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins & Aaron Dobson) having a full year of the offense under their belt, the Patriots should be improved this season. Not only does Brady have a slew of weapons at his disposal, but the New England defense could feature one of the best secondaries in a long time, with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.
Longshot (Give A Little, To Get A Lot) Player (Fair Value):
JJ Watt (DL – Houston Texans)
2014 MVP Odds For J.J. Watt: 150 to 1 (or +15000)
In many eyes, JJ Watt is the league’s premier defensive player. There will likely be less double teams on Watt, now that the Texans added Jadaveon Clowney on the other side of the line. If Clowney can get healthy Watt will surely make his presence known once again this year. I can’t think of 15 defensive players more likely to win the MVP than Watt. The Texans, although they have concerns at the quarterback position, should be a team to be reckoned with this season with new coach Bill O’Brien at the helm. These factors, make Watt’s price a bargain and definitely worth a look. 150 to 1? Why not?
Two Teammates Being Sold At Tempting Prices:
LeSean McCoy (RB) & Nick Foles (QB) – (Philadelphia Eagles)
Latest 2014 NFL MVP Odds for LeSean McCoy +4000 & Nick Foles +5000
While both of these prices may look tempting, theres a lot to look at here. Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly brought his dynamic style of offense to the NFL last season. Many thought it wouldn’t work, and early in the season Eagles fans we’re cringing at their slow start. However, it was a blessing disguised when starting quarterback & turnover machine, Michael Vick was ailed by an early season hamstring injury (just early enough). Even the wise Chip Kelly didn’t expect 2nd year backup Nick Foles to execute Kelly’s fast paced offense in a higher level than Vick. Even post-Vick, Foles himself was dealing with a nagging injury. Watching a third string rookie try to execute Kelly’s demanding playbook made things look bleak early in the year and those loveable Philadelphia fans were all the more friendly in September last year.
However, Nick showed some NFL quarterback level fortitude and got very comfortable as the season progressed. A down year in the NFC East and a poor finish in 2012 afforded the Eagles a weak strength of schedule. This provided Nick Foles with a timely & smooth transition to the starting job. A gradually improving Philadelphia D combined with Kelly’s pedal-to-the-medal coaching style gave the efficient Foles the perfect opportunity get his feet wet in the NFL.
Kelly began building his offense around McCoy’s dynamic running attack, using some comfortable leads in games to give his young QB the freedom to grow. A few tough wins later, Foles was filling up the stat sheet and downright feasting on some of the league’s weaker secondaries. To say he put up quality passing numbers would be an understatement. The sophomore QB was developing into a NFL-level passer and the Eagles won the NFC East.
The Eagles fell short in the playoffs to the New Orleans Saints in what was a very slow game offensively. Philadelphia fans are now encouraged and believe that a full offseason under Kelly will make them an improved team & an NFC contender. However, sharp bettors can’t help but take note of their 2014-15 division-winning schedule, where they will have to face defensive powerhouses like Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, & San Francisco. To the average fan, Foles looks like a great value at 50-1, as we all know passing is what you see on ESPN highlights. But, make no mistake about it. LeSean McCoy is the one who took them to the playoffs last year and allowed them to battle. If the Eagles are going to survive this schedule and Nick Foles is going to continue to develop as passer while having to go through some of the league’s elite pass-rushing rosters, you better believe that it’s going to be their horse in LeSean McCoy that gets both the Eagles & young Nick Foles out the other side. At this price, McCoy is worth a look.
Player Who Just Might Surprise You (Value):
Jay Cutler (QB – Chicago Bears)
2014 NFL MVP Odds for Jay Cutler: 25 to 1 (or +2500)
For starters, there’s always the “Can Jay Cutler stay healthy?” question that is asked regularly. It seems to be the only thing that is keeping him from being a top-tier quarterback (that and his crappy attitude). Cutler probably has the most feared wide receiver tandem in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. In Marc Trestman’s second year, he has implemented a solid running game and more quick throws for Cutler, keeping him on his feet and taking a lot fewer hits. The Bear’s have also made a number of key acquisitions to patch up a defense that underperformed last year. The Bears might be in for a very surprising season, and clearly, their success and failure rests on Jay Cutler’s health. With Cutler & the Bears playing one of the weaker defensive conferences, he is worth a shot at these odds to win what is a largely stat based award.
Player With Something To Prove at an Opportune Time (Best Value):
Colin Kaepernick (QB – San Francisco 49ers)
Odds to win the MVP for Colin Kaepernick: 30 to 1 (or +3000)
The real reason nobody would have considered 2nd year starter Colin Kaepernick for NFL MVP last season was not because he didn’t win games or wasn’t effective. There was no lack of big plays from young Colin Kaepernick. In fact, he won a lot of games against very good teams. The reason he wasn’t an MVP candidate was because he didn’t put up gaudy passing numbers. After all, the regular-season MVP award, is about passing yards and touchdowns for quarterbacks (it’s a media-based award).
In 2013, the 49ers game plan was very ball-controlled, run-heavy due to their defensive dominance, lack of a deep receiving threat (due to Michael Crabtree’s 10-week injury), and a brutal division-winning schedule (in the NFC West). Colin Kaepernick would have quite a few games where he’d play well and do it with his legs & his arm. In those games, he’d finish the game with passing yards total fewer than 200 yards. This tends to get the public (even the east coast media who doesn’t see the game) into thinking Kaepernick isn’t effective as a passer; which couldn’t be further from the truth.
This year, the 49ers defense has already been hit with a few setbacks early in pre-season. A healthy Michael Crabtree lined up along side Anquan Boldin & Vernon Davis, as well as new additions in Steve Johnson & Brandon Lloyd (fighting for the 3rd wide receiver spot) will provide Kaepernick with a lot more receiving options as well as strong running game and returning o-line to give him time to throw. There is also a some young talent like Quinton Patton and rookie speedster Bruce Ellington. With all these weapons at his disposal and a that needs some time to re-gel, a frustrated Jim Harbaugh may be inclined to open up the offense a lot this year and not take his foot off gas pedal.
Regular Season MVP Odds Courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook:
(Get a 50% Signup Bonus at 5 Dimes Sportsbook By Clicking Here)
Peyton Manning +360
Aaron Rodgers +600
Drew Brees +800
Tom Brady +1200
Jay Cutler +2500
Andrew Luck +2500
Calvin Johnson +2800
Colin Kaepernick +3000
Adrian Peterson +3000
Robert Griffin III +3500
Russell Wilson +3500
LeSean McCoy +4000
Matthew Stafford +4500
Nick Foles +5000
Matt Ryan +5000
Cam Newton +5000
Philip Rivers +6000
Jamaal Charles +6000
Tony Romo +6500
Eli Manning +7000
Dez Bryant +8000
Demaryius Thomas +8500
Matt Forte +8500
AJ Green +9500
Jimmy Graham +10000
Ben Roethlisberger +10000
Brandon Marshall +10000
Julio Jones +11000
Rob Gronkowski +12500
Alshon Jeffery +12500
Marshawn Lynch +12500
Joe Flacco +12500
Victor Cruz +12500
Percy Harvin +12500
Josh McCown +13500
Eddie Lacy +15000
Alfred Morris +15000
Jake Locker +15000
Reggie Bush +15000
Antonio Brown +15000
JJ Watt +15000
Luke Kuechly +17500
Arian Foster +17500
Greg Hardy +17500
Sam Bradford +17500
Larry Fitzgerald +17500
Alex Smith +17500
Andy Dalton +20000
Montee Ball +20000
CJ Spiller +20000
Giovani Bernard +20000
Zac Stacy +20000
Ryan Mathews +20000
Richard Sherman +20000
Robert Quinn +20000
Chris Johnson +20000
Carson Palmer +22500
Von Miller +22500
Matt Schaub +22500
Knowshon Moreno +25000
Frank Gore +25000
Darrelle Revis +25000
Patrick Peterson +25000
Chad Henne +25000
EJ Manuel +25000
Matt Cassel +25000
Michael Vick +25000
Ryan Tannehill +25000
Brian Hoyer +25000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +27500
Johnny Manziel +30000
DeMarco Murray +30000
Ray Rice +30000
Geno Smith +35000
Cecil Shorts III +50000
Several players have started off the 2012 NFL schedule in fine form, and they are going to be the favorites on the odds to win the MVP award in the NFL. Don’t miss our NFL MVP odds, as we take a look at the odds near the halfway point of the season.
