Posts Tagged ‘NFL Picks’

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Offensive Linemen

April 21st, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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Over the next two weeks, Bankroll Sports will provide you an in-depth look on the NFL Draft, examining the top prospects at each position. Today, we look at the top ten offensive linemen for the 2011 NFL Draft.

1. Mike Pouncey C/G (Florida) – Due to the lack of an elite offensive tackle along the lines of an Orlando Pace, Joe Thomas, or Jonathan Ogden in this draft, Pouncey is our No. 1 overall offensive lineman on the board. Despite struggling mightily in his first few games as a center with Florida, he rebounded nicely at the end of the year and established himself as the top interior lineman in this draft class. Pouncey is buoyed by the success that his twin brother Maurkice had with the Steelers as a rookie last year and has the potential to have the same impact. He can play either guard or center, though he prefers guard, and should be a mid first-round pick.

2. Tyron Smith OT (USC) – Thanks to a fantastic performance at USC’s pro day, Smith has rocketed up the draft board and is now projected to go as high as ninth overall to the Dallas Cowboys. Smith has phenomenal speed and feet for a big man, being one of the only offensive tackle prospects to run the 40 yard dash in under 5 seconds while also impressing scouts with his times on the short shuttle and three cone drill. Smith is a fantastic pass blocker and although he is raw, has tremendous upside as he is only 20 years old.

3. Anthony Castonzo OT (Boston College) – Castonzo’s frame is what scouts look for in a franchise left tackle. The 6’7 311 lb senior could stand to gain a little weight, but dominated against some of the best defensive lines in the country. Castonzo has the leadership that teams are looking for in a young talent, being the team’s captain in 2010 and also has the smarts to succeed after scoring a 41 on the Wonderlic test. He is not an elite prospect, but has the potential to be a solid pro for years to come. Castonzo should be a mid to late first round selection.

4. Nate Solder OT (Colorado) – Having only played the offensive tackle position for three seasons, Solder’s size and athleticism gives him amazing potential for becoming a fantastic left tackle in the NFL. Last NCAA football wagering season, Solder was a consensus All-American and helped provide stability to the mostly anemic Buffaloes offense. Solder is a mountain of a man at 6’8 319 lbs and his incredible 81-inch wingspan is enough to shut down defensive ends at the next level. He is projected to be a late first round pick.

5. Gabe Carimi OT (Wisconsin) – Wisconsin seems to be an offensive tackle factory and looks to have produced another gem in Carimi. Carimi was a four-year starter in Madison and replaced standout LT Joe Thomas as a redshirt freshman and responded by being named All-Big 10 first team twice. Carimi was the rock behind one of the best rushing attacks in the country over the past few years and secured an Outland Trophy as the nation’s premier offensive or defensive lineman. Carimi looks to be a late first-round pick in the draft.

6. Derek Sherrod OT (Mississippi State) – A two time All-SEC selection, Sherrod has gotten it done in the toughest conference in the nation despite being surrounded by marginal talent. Sherrod was a four-year starter at Mississippi State and was a big reason why Bulldogs HC Dan Mullen was able to turn the program around in such a short amount of time. Sherrod is 6’5 321 lbs but didn’t impress anyone at the combine with an average 40 time and a pedestrian performance on the bench press. Still, he is considered a late first to early second round pick.

7. Danny Watkins OG (Baylor) – At 26, Watkins is an old man in a draft full of 22 and 23 year olds. Watkins graduated high school and was a firefighter for four years before giving football a chance. Watkins didn’t play football until studying at a small college in California and quickly turned enough heads to get a scholarship offer to Baylor. He replaced standout Jason Smith and more than held his own despite his limited playing experience. Watkins is seen as a late first to early second round pick and has tremendous talent despite his age and newness to the game.

8. Rodney Hudson C/G (Florida State) – Hudson is one of the best interior offensive linemen in this draft and can play center as well as both guard positions effectively. He doesn’t have elite size, with only a 6’2 290 lb frame, but is a fantastic technician and learned from one of the best in FSU OL coach Rick Trickett. Hudson was the anchor of the Seminoles’ offensive line during most of his time in Tallahassee and will make an excellent pro no matter what position he plays. Hudson is seen as a second round pick.

9. Benjamin Ijalana G (Villanova) – Ijalana is a huge question mark in this draft due to his injury situation and his FCS resume. Ijalana has failed to work out at either the combine or the Senior Bowl due to hernia surgery, but did dominate at the lower level of competition, starting all four seasons he was a Wildcat. At Villanova, he played left tackle, but will likely be moved to guard in the NFL. Ijalana is projected to be a second round draft pick.

10. Marcus Cannon OT (TCU) – A 6’5 358 lb tackle with amazing strength, no offensive lineman at the combine lifted more than Cannon did. Cannon put up 33 reps on the 225 lb bench press and ser numerous workout records during his time as a Horned Frog. Cannon struggled with fast defensive ends and will need to work on his footwork if he intends to succeed at the next level. With his measurements and strength though, Cannon is definitely worthy of a high draft selection. He is projected to be a second round choice.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Wide Receivers in the Draft

April 20th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Wide Receivers in the Draft
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Over the next two weeks, Bankroll Sports will provide you an in-depth look on the NFL Draft, examining the top prospects at each position. Today, we look at the top ten wide receivers for the 2011 NFL Draft.

1. AJ Green (Georgia) – Despite failing to record a 1,000 yard season during his time in Athens, AJ Green is at the top of our list for best wide receivers in the 2011 NFL Draft. Green caught 57 passes for 848 yards with nine touchdowns despite being the constant target of double coverage. Green’s 6’4 207 lb frame has scouts drooling over him along with his feather-soft hands and fantastic route running ability. Green is a lock for a Top 10 pick and even though he didn’t put up fantastic numbers in college, is easily the best receiver in the draft.

2. Julio Jones (Alabama) – Coming into the NFL Draft Combine, Jones was seen as the second best wide receiver in the class and solidified that position with his awesome workout. Jones ran a blazing fast 4.34 40 and put up a 38 ½ inch vertical jump in Indianapolis to ensure his position as a first round selection and should be drafted in the top half of the first round. Like Green, Jones didn’t put up numbers befitting his ability at Alabama but was burdened by playing in Head Coach Nick Saban’s pro-style set. During the 2010 college football betting season, Jones caught 78 passes for 1,133 yards and seven touchdowns as Greg McElroy’s go-to wide out.

3. Leonard Hankerson (Miami) – Hankerson has the size and speed befitting of an NFL prospect, but his lack of upper body strength and questionable hands make him less of a talent than Green and Jones. Hankerson was the leader of one of the best wide receiving corps in college football last season and put up great numbers in his senior season in Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro-style passing offense. Hankerson hauled in 72 passes for 1,156 yards and 13 touchdowns in one of the best seasons by a wide receiver in Hurricanes’ history. He is seen as an early second-round pick by most scouts.

4. Torrey Smith (Maryland) – The most versatile wide receiver in the draft might be Torrey Smith of the Terrapins. Smith set the ACC record for kickoff return yardage in a career with almost 3,000 return yards and was one of the most productive wide outs in the ACC with 67 receptions for 1,055 yards and 12 touchdowns. Smith made the Terrapins’ passing attack respectable virtually by himself, with no other Terrapin recording more than 350 receiving yards on the season. His 4.41 40 time wasn’t amazing, but was respectable and should make him a late first to early second round pick.

5. Jerrel Jernigan (Troy) – At Troy State, Jernigan was not only a three-time 1st team All-Conference selection, but also the Sun Belt’s all-time leader in all-purpose yards, receptions, and receiving yards. Jernigan caught 84 passes for 822 yards and six touchdowns in his senior year, and also impressed out of the Wildcat formation, carrying the ball 45 times for 322 yards and three touchdowns. Jernigan also had a punt return touchdown and a kickoff return touchdown this past NCAA football betting season and will probably be asked to be both a wide out and returner at the professional level. Jernigan is one of the most elusive wide receivers in the draft and should be a second to third round pick.

6. Randall Cobb (Kentucky) – Cobb came to Kentucky as a quarterback but after a respectable freshman season, was asked to become the quarterback of Kentucky’s Wildcat offense and learn the wide receiver position. Cobb quickly impressed in his new dual role and led one of the most successful Wildcat schemes in the country. He totaled 1313 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground during his three seasons in Lexington and had a breakout campaign as a wide out in 2010, catching 84 balls for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. Cobb is projected as a second to third round pick.

7. Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh) – Despite having substandard quarterback play during most of his time as a Panther, Baldwin established himself as one of the best deep threats in the country. Baldwin averaged close to 20 yards per reception over his career as a Pitt Panther with 128 receptions for 2,337 yards and 16 touchdowns. Baldwin lacks elite speed and clocked in with a 4.49 40 at the Combine, but his 6’4 228 lb frame allows him to leap over smaller defenders in jump ball situations. Baldwin is seen as a second to third round pick and has fantastic potential with the right scheme.

8. Titus Young (Boise State) – Young was a three time All-WAC first team selection during his time at Boise State and dazzled opposing teams and fans alike with some of his amazing plays. Young had two straight 1,000 yard seasons with the Broncos and didn’t disappoint as a returner either with 56 kick returns for 1,449 yards and two touchdowns in his career as a Bronco. His lack of size will hurt him at the next level, but Young is quick and versatile enough to make a place for himself in the NFL. He is seen as a mid-round selection in the upcoming draft.

9. Greg Little (North Carolina) – Little is one of the North Carolina products whose draft stock plummeted after being suspended for the entire 2010 season due to inappropriate contact with an agent. Little played both running back and wide receiver during his time as a Tar Heel, but it is likely that he will be used as a wide out in the pros. In 2009, Little hauled in 62 passes for 724 yards and five touchdowns despite the limitations of learning a new position and having to catch passes from the subpar TJ Yates. He is projected as a mid-round pick.

10. Greg Salas (Hawaii) – No wide receiver put up the numbers that Salas did over the past two seasons. In 2009, Salas caught 106 passes for 1,590 yards and eight touchdowns to be one of the top wide outs in the country. Last season, Salas outdid himself and snared 119 balls for 1,889 yards and 14 touchdowns and led all of college football in receiving yards. However, Salas was the beneficiary of Hawaii’s wide-open spread and probably will fail to make a dent as a professional. Salas is predicted to be a mid-round selection.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Running Backs in the Draft

April 18th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Running Backs in the Draft

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Over the next two weeks, Bankroll Sports will provide you an in-depth look on the NFL Draft, examining the top prospects at each position. Today, we look at the top ten running backs for the 2011 NFL Draft.

1. Mark Ingram (Alabama) – 2009 Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram tops the list as the best running back in a very weak crop. In other years, Ingram might have been a questionable first round pick, but the position is so scarce in the 2011 NFL Draft that the pride of the Crimson Tide should be a mid-first round pick this season. In 2010, Ingram didn’t put up the same numbers that won him the Heisman just one year earlier, but still got it done in the toughest conference in all of college football. Ingram lacks breakaway speed, running a 4.62 40 at the combine, but scouts love his balance and how well he protects the football. In three years at Alabama, Ingram only fumbled the ball three times and only lost two of the fumbles.

2. Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) – Williams had a monster campaign during the 2009 college football betting season, racking up 1655 yards and 21 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman but failed to come close to matching that production this season. Williams was bothered by a hamstring injury most of the year and only managed to carry the ball 110 times for 477 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010. Like Ingram, Williams is not a speedster, clocking a 4.59 40 at the NFL Combine and does have durability concerns due to the injury. Williams is projected as a mid to late second-round pick and has the talent to succeed but must stay healthy and be able to stay on the field in passing downs.

3. Mikel LeShoure (Illinois) – Mikel LeShoure had a breakout 2010 campaign despite being the only offensive option on a 7-6 Illinois Fighting Illini team. LeShoure became a workhorse back for HC Ron Zook, carrying the ball 281 times for 1697 yards and 17 touchdowns during the 2010 NCAA football wagering season. Although he lacks that extra burst of speed, LeShoure reminds some scouts of former Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall and is great at running between the tackles. LeShoure is considered to be a mid to late second-round pick.

4. Daniel Thomas (Kansas State) – Only two running backs carried the rock more than Daniel Thomas did in 2010, but it’s arguable whether or not any running back was more responsible for his team’s offensive production. Kansas State ran the ball on 65% of their plays and Thomas carried the bulk of the load for the Wildcats. Thomas picked up 1585 yards and 19 touchdowns on 298 carries this past season and has paced the offense since coming to Manhattan as a JUCO transfer. If there is a question about Thomas, it’s his ability to protect the football, fumbling 11 times over the past two seasons. Thomas is projected as a mid to late second-round pick.

5. Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State) – Despite playing in a spread offense, Hunter amassed over 4000 yards in a productive career with the Cowboys. Unlike the previous four backs on this list, Hunter is a speedster that draws comparisons to Darren Sproles. Hunter’s diminutive frame (5’7, 199 lbs) means that he probably won’t be able to last as an every down back in the NFL, but Hunter could make an excellent third down back and is always a threat to take it to the house. Hunter is seen as a mid-round pick and may be used as a kick or punt returner as well.

6. DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma) – No running back in the draft has the upside that Murray has provided he can stay healthy. The fifth-year senior suffered at least a moderate injury in every season he was with the Sooners, and missed games in three seasons due to various injuries. When Murray is healthy, he is electrifying. He has blazing speed (4.37 40) despite being 6’0 210 lbs and is a powerful inside runner with a devastating first cut. Murray is projected as a mid-round pick, but don’t be surprised if a team takes a reach on him due to his potential.

7. Shane Vereen (California) – Vereen had a shot to be an early round pick, but disappointed scouts with a 4.49 40 despite his size. Vereen carried the Golden Bears down the stretch after an injury to starting quarterback Kevin Riley neutered Jeff Tedford’s passing attack, tallying three straight 100-yard games to end the season despite rushing into seven and eight man fronts loaded to stop the run. Vereen’s probable role in the NFL is as a hybrid Eric Metcalf type and he has never missed a game due to injury. Vereen is seen as a mid-round pick.

8. Jordan Todman (Connecticut) – Todman was the most used running back in major college football in 2010, receiving an average of 28 carries per game on Randy Edsall’s Huskies. Todman was the nation’s fourth leading rusher and won Big East Offensive Player of the Year honors after carrying the ball 334 times for 1695 yards and 14 touchdowns en route to a Big East championship. There will be injury concerns with Todman due to his heavy workload in college, but he has the ability to be a solid pro and is seen as a mid-round pick.

9. Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon State) – Rodgers is this year’s prime example of how you can hurt yourself at the Combine. ‘Quizz showed incredible speed in college and scouts were looking for a 40 time at least in the low 4.4’s to cement his spot as a top running back in this class. Instead, Rodgers ran an embarrassingly slow 4.74 40 and watched his stock freefall in the following weeks. Although he ran a respectable 4.47 at the Beavers’ Pro Day, Rodgers is seen as a mid-round pick at best now.

10. Roy Helu (Nebraska) – Despite opponents keying on stopping Helu and Cornhuskers QB Taylor Martinez, Helu was one of the most efficient running backs in the country in 2010. Helu carried the ball just 188 times, but averaged 6.6 yards per carry and reached pay dirt 11 times. Helu’s breakout game came against division rival Missouri, where he ran for 307 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries. Helu is seen as a mid to late-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft

April 14th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2011 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft
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Over the next two weeks, Bankroll Sports will provide you an in-depth look on the NFL Draft, examining the top prospects at each position. Today, we look at the top ten quarterbacks for the 2011 NFL Draft.

1. Cameron Newton (Auburn) – This year’s Heisman Trophy winner tops the list as the best quarterback in the draft despite the questions about his accuracy and his mentality heading into the pros. No one doubts that Newton is the most athletically gifted quarterback in this draft, but questions surround his ability to pick up new schemes and whether or not he will ever mature into a team leader. Many mock drafts have Newton going in the Top 5 and there is a lot of speculation that he could go No. 1 overall to Carolina. Newton threw for 30 touchdowns and ran for 20 touchdowns during the 2010 college football season and accounted for over 4,000 yards of offense for the Tigers.

2. Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) – Gabbert is seen by many as the best pure passer in this class and is projected to be a Top 10 pick by many mock draft experts. Gabbert completed over 60% of his passes for 3,186 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions and also ran for 232 yards and five touchdowns for the Tigers. His dual-threat versatility along with his rocket arm has helped him move up the draft board despite college stats that fail to overwhelm you. Arizona seems like a likely possible destination for Gabbert with its need for a pro-style quarterback.

3. Christian Ponder (Florida State) – Despite Mel Kiper’s insistence that Ponder is nothing more than a poor man’s Chad Pennington, no quarterback has moved up the draft boards as much as Ponder over the last few months. The former Seminole was injured during the regular season and there have been questions about his durability in the professional ranks. Ponder has the mind to run an NFL offense, having already earned his Master’s Degree, and he greatly benefited from the tutelage of Jimbo Fisher. He is expected to be a late first to early second round draft pick and can be a solid starter if he stays healthy.

4. Jake Locker (Washington) – If Locker came out during the 2010 NFL Draft, he would’ve been a definite Top 10 pick. However, his decision to return to school for his senior year hurt his draft stock after a subpar 2010 NCAA football season. Locker completed less than 60% of his passes for only 2,265 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Locker look absolutely flustered at times during the season, and while there’s no doubt that he has immense raw talent, there is a question of whether or not he’ll be able to put it all together. Locker is expected to be a late first to early second round pick.

5. Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) – Mallett’s stock has fallen off considerably after a questionable media interview at the NFL Combine. Mallett has been compared to gunslingers like Jeff George, quarterbacks with a cannon arm but shaky leadership skills, and this has been the main reason behind his fall down the draft board. However, no quarterback has a stronger arm than Mallett in the draft and the Razorback has shredded some of the best defenses in the country over the last two seasons. Mallett is projected as a second round pick.

6. Andy Dalton (TCU) – Dalton is another quarterback who has seen his stock rise as we have crept closer to the draft. Dalton is one of the few four-year starters in the draft and this has contributed to his rise up the draft board. Despite not having the pure talent that some of the other prospects on the board have, Dalton has the ability to be a solid game manager at the pro level. The Horned Frog QB is seen as a second to third round pick.

7. Ricky Stanzi (Iowa) – Not many quarterbacks put together records than Stanzi did during his time at Iowa. Stanzi went 18-4 during his time as a Hawkeye despite not having fantastic statistics until last season. Last year, Stanzi completed 66% of his passes for 3004 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Much like Dalton, Stanzi is seen as being a solid game manager and has the best shot of all the quarterbacks not taken in the first two rounds to become a solid pro. Stanzi is projected as a middle round pick.

8. Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) – Every year a project quarterback pick impresses scouts with his athletic ability and wows his way into an earlier round than he would normally go. We’ve seen it with Pat White, Tim Tebow, Brad Smith, and others with mixed success. This year’s prospect that falls into this category is Kaepernick. Kaepernick showed blazing speed running the Wolfpack’s offense and over his career developed into an adequate, but raw, passer. Kaepernick will probably see some time in wildcat type formations but whichever team drafts him and may switch positions down the line. He is projected as a middle round pick.

9. Pat Devlin (Delaware) – Devlin originally played for two years at Penn State before transferring to FCS Delaware to become a starter. Devlin shined in the lower level of competition, completing 67% of his passes for 3032 yards with 22 touchdowns against just three interceptions last year, but the question will be whether or not he can make the quantum leap to the NFL. Devlin has the build of a quarterback and draws many comparison to former Blue Hen QB Joe Flacco, both for his build and path to the pros. He is considered a mid to late round pick.

10. Nathan Enderle (Idaho) – Enderle didn’t put up particularly great numbers and played in a weak conference, but led the Vandals to respectability after years of being in the dungeon. Enderle threw for 3314 yards and 22 touchdowns against 16 interceptions in 2010 with the Vandals and at 6’4″ 240 lbs has the prototypical build of an NFL quarterback. He is projected as a late round pick but is one of the biggest sleepers in the draft.

Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet

January 30th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl Betting Trends: Super Bowl XLV Cheat Sheet
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duel in the Super Bowl, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, February 6th, 6:35 ET: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games against teams with a winning record
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games overall
-19-6-1 ATS in their L/26 games following games in which they hold their foes to two TDs or fewer
-6-2 ATS in their L/8 games as favorites
-8-3-1 ATS in their L/12 games played on field turf
-12-5-1 ATS in their L/18 games following an ATS win
-2-5 ATS in their L/7 playoff games as favorites

The Steelers are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games overall
-9-1 ATS in their L/10 playoff games
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 games following an ATS victory
-16-5-1 ATS in their L/22 games as underdogs of three points or fewer
-34-16-1 ATS in their L/51 games as underdogs overall

The over is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an ATS victory
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games following an SU victory
-5-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/6 playoff games as an underdog
-4-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 games overall
-16-5 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 playoff games

The under is…
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 games as an underdog
-6-1 in Green Bay’s L/7 games following an SU victory
-8-3 in Green Bay’s L/11 games following an ATS victory
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games as a favorite of three points or fewer
-9-4 in Green Bay’s L/13 games against teams with a winning record
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 games played on field turf

Series History
These are, without a shadow of a doubt, the two most storied franchises in the history of the NFL. Between them, there are 20 championships, nine of which are Superbowl betting victories. The two teams don’t generally play all that often, but they did last year, and Pittsburgh came away with a 37-36 triumph at home at Heinz Field. The Steelers have had the upper hand on the Pack for quite some time as well. Dating back to 1980, these two teams have met eight times, with Pittsburgh going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. Though the last game between them featured 73 points, there hasn’t been another game between them that has had more than 47, and three of the L/6 clashes have featured 30 points or fewer.

NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11

January 23rd, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Championship Weekend Props 1/23/11
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There are only three games left in the entire NFL betting campaign, but before we get ready to make our Super Bowl XLV picks, we have some unfinished business to tend to in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Check out our NFL prop picks for two of the biggest games of the entire season!

Will There Be a Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game Bears/Packers Game?
We know that the Chicago offense got off to a great start last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but we also have to remember that these two teams have played some absolutely sparkling defense along the way as well. If the Bears get the ball first, there is a decent chance that a scoring drive might take over 6.5 minutes even if it does happen on the opening sequence, believe it or not. We’re believers that points could be at a premium on Sunday, and though that might not necessarily translate into a lower scoring game, we’ll take our chances that the first score doesn’t occur early on. Bank on there being No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) between the Bears and the Packers.

Will There Be a Safety in Both Championship Games?
This season, including the playoffs, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s right. Over the course of all of those games in the NFL betting schedule, 264 of them, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s one safety in every 4.9% of games played in the league this year. In 2009, there were only 14 safeties, including the playoffs. Let’s do some simple math here, shall we? Over the last 531 games in the NFL, there have been 27 safeties, or one safety in approximately 20 games (5.08%). If we can hit this prop at -1000 in 94.92% of our games, we’re going to be worth a ton of money. Over 1,000 games, at this price, if we were to bet $1,000 to win $100, we would have a profit of $4,412. Not a bad haul, eh? No Safety in the NFC Championship Game, and No Safety in the AFC Championship Game (-1000 Each Bet at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts
Rodgers certainly hasn’t been afraid to tuck it and run when he has to this season, as he was one of the best running options for a team that really didn’t have all that much to work with in that department in 2010. The former Cal Golden Bear took off 64 times this year and accounted for 356 yards in the regular season, but what impressed us the most is the fact that he had seven carries in the 10-3 win over these Bears in Week 17. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to this point yet in the playoffs, as he only has five carries in two games, but we tend to believe that this will be an exception, as the Chicago defense is a lot more prone to sending a lot of men after the quarterback, which could cause Rodgers to have to escape more often than he really wants to. He’ll go Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Matt Forte Over/Under 16.5 Yards on Longest Carry
It’s only one stroke of luck and one stroke of genius that will get Forte to this type of a number. We’ve seen that the Bears have stayed committed to Forte this season when they have had the chance to, and over the course of the last four games, he has at least 15 carries in all four outings and has averaged 19 carries per game. Forte isn’t really the most explosive runner in the world, but he has had a ton of opportunities, especially when he gets the ball in open space, to be able to take advantage and pick up some huge gainers. Over the course of the second half of the season, Chicago’s top running back has had a long carry of at least 17 yards six times, and we tend to believe that that will continue on Sunday. Forte’s longest carry will be Over 16.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks in the AFC Championship Game
We’re a tad surprised to see Hollywood hang a ‘5’ in this game instead of a ‘5.5’ due to the fact that last week, there were 11 sacks in the duel between the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. We know that there are a ton of problems right now for the Steelers up front, and the Jets have really yet to show their best pass rush in these playoffs to date. After getting after QB Tom Brady all week last week, we have no doubt that New York can get to QB Ben Roethlisberger in this one, and when it does, it is going to make those opportunities pay off. There is no way, with these two ferocious defenses, that there aren’t Over 5 Sacks (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) significantly more often than not.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
You know that LT is going to get his touches in this game, and you know that the Pittsburgh defense is going to do what it can to make sure that he doesn’t have the same 49 yards on 11 carries that he had when these two squads met last month. We know that Tomlinson hasn’t been used all that much as a receiver of late, but there is a point that QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to realize that he doesn’t have the time to work the ball up the field against this Pittsburgh defense. Last week, it was TE Todd Heap for the Ravens that made all of those catches over the middle of the field, and it is clear that Tomlinson is going to be asked to fill that role as a check down option at times when Sanchez is in trouble. LT will go Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pittsburgh defense.

Heath Miller Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked just a tad about inside routes with Heap and the Steelers defense, but what about the New York ‘D’? This unit really doesn’t give up much of anything to anyone, but if there is a bit of a weakness, it is against teams that really utilize either tight ends or other receiving options to sit down in the middle of the field. Last week, Brady was really forced to do nothing but try to throw balls underneath to WR Deion Branch and TE Rob Gronkowski, while the week before, the Colts did the exact same thing with TE Jacob Tamme. Now, enter Heath Miller, who has had at least four catches in three straight games and is proving to be a great safety net for Roethlisberger when he gets himself out of some trouble in the pocket. Big Ben loves using his big time tight end, as Miller often gets at least a half dozen looks per game. He’s a big play threat up the seams and could be in for a lot of looks on Sunday, especially knowing that WR Mike Wallace and his friends are going to be worked a ton up the sides of the field. This is the man in the middle that should have a great day. Miller will go Over 3.5 Receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the New York ‘D’.

Super Bowl Betting Trends: AFC & NFC Championship Cheat Sheet

January 20th, 2011 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   1 Comment »
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Making Superbowl picks are our specialty here at Bankroll Sports, and in order to give you a helping hand on the upcoming duels in the AFC and NFC Championship Games, we’re breaking down some of the most notable Super Bowl trends for the duels left in the second season!

Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 ET: Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
NFL Trends of Note
The Packers are…
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 games on grass
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 on the road against teams with winning home records
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 as favorites
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 road games
-7-3 ATS in their L/10 against teams from the NFC
-11-5-1 ATS in their L/17 following an ATS victory
-1-5 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as a favorite
-9-3 ATS in their L/12 visits to Soldier Field

The Bears are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 games in January
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 against the NFC North
-2-9 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-5-2 ATS in their L/7 following an SU victory
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played on grass

The over is…
-4-1 in Green Bay’s L/5 playoff games
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road playoff games
-16-7 in Green Bay’s L/23 games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points
-4-0 in Chicago’s L/4 home games
-9-1 in Chicago’s L/10 games played in January
-5-1 in Chicago’s L/6 playoff games
-4-1 in Chicago’s L/5 home games against teams with a winning road record

The under is…
-5-0 in Green Bay’s L/5 games as road favorites
-6-2 in Green Bay’s L/8 against the NFC North
-5-2 in Green Bay’s L/7 road games against teams with winning home records
-8-2 in Green Bay’s L/10 road games
-18-7-1 in Chicago’s L/26 games as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-61-30-2 in Chicago’s L/93 games as underdogs overall
-6-0 in the L/6 meetings between Green Bay and Chicago
-5-1 in the L/6 meetings of Green Bay and Chicago at Soldier Field

Series History
You aren’t going to find two teams that really hate each other more than this, as these two teams have a history that is very, very deep. The Bears did pick up the victory against the NFL odds in both meetings this year with the Packers, but those were the first two covers in this series for the men from the Windy City since December 2007, a stretch of four straight for the Pack. Since 2004, these two teams have been relatively split, as Chicago is 8-6 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. However, the previous six meetings all belonged to Green Bay both SU and ATS. The Packers just love coming to Soldier Field. Since 1994, they are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS. The only time that these two met in the month of January here in the Windy City was in 2005, a 31-14 win for the visiting Packers.

Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 ET: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Jets are…
-4-0 ATS in their L/4 against the AFC
-6-1 ATS in their L/7 played in January
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 playoff games
-12-4 ATS in their L/16 played on the road
-8-3 ATS in their L/11 as underdogs
-10-4 ATS in their L/14 as underdogs of between 3.5 and 10 points
-14-6 ATS in their L/20 as road underdogs
-9-4 ATS in their L/13 against teams with a winning record
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 meetings with the Steelers

The Steelers are…
-9-0 ATS in their L/9 played in January
-5-0 ATS in their L/5 home playoff games
-8-1 ATS in their L/9 playoff games overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 overall
-5-1 ATS in their L/6 playoff games as favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 home games
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as home favorites
-4-1 ATS in their L/5 as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points in the playoffs
-22-9 ATS in their L/31 home games as favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points

The over is…
-4-0 in New York’s L/4 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
-5-0 in New York’s L/5 games on grass
-10-1 in New York’s L/11 road games
-7-1 in New York’s L/8 games as an underdog
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games in January
-8-2 in New York’s L/10 games following an ATS victory
-9-3 in New York’s L/12 games following an SU win
-19-7-1 in New York’s L/27 games against the AFC
-5-2 in New York’s L/7 playoff games
-5-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/5 AFC Championship Games
-4-0 in Pittsburgh’s L/4 playoff games as favorites
-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/11 home playoff games
-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/21 games played in January
-14-2 in Pittsburgh’s L/16 playoff games
-20-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s L/28 home games against teams with a winning road record
-51-25-3 in Pittsburgh’s L/79 games as a home favorite

The under is…
-5-2 in the L/7 meetings in this series

Series History
Dating back to 1981, there are only 15 meetings between the Jets and the Steelers, and this is bound to be yet another epic clash. The only playoff meeting in the bunch came in 2005, when New York had every chance in the world to pull off the upset as 9.5 point underdogs, but kick after kick kept either coming up short or sailing wide to give the Steelers a chance. Eventually, they came up with a 20-17 triumph in OT. The Jets did win the one meeting this year between these teams, and it came here at Heinz Field. The 22-17 win was the victory that really started this great run of games for the Jets, who are now in their second straight AFC Championship Game. New York has covered three straight in this series, but the Steelers are 11-4 ATS since 1981.