The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers are already getting set to do battle in the Lone Star State, and in order for you to make your Superbowl XLV picks, we have the three biggest keys to the game that you must remember that will probably determine the outcome of the game.

Key #1: The Steelers have to use experience to their advantage
When you look at the roster for the Steelers, you see a whole slew of men that have already won rings titles, many of which have helped Pittsburgh to two victories over the Super Bowl odds in their tenures wearing black and gold. QB Ben Roethlisberger, the heart and soul of this team, is arguably the most important player on the field, and he not only figured out how to do it as a young buck, who just relied on his defense and handed the ball off a ton, but he also did it in a shootout against a two-time Super Bowl MVP in QB Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals just three Super Bowls ago. There aren’t all that many coaches left in the league that can flash a Super Bowl ring in their locker room, but Head Coach Mike Tomlin is certainly one of them. He was the youngest head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and the youngest to ever win it, and now, he is the youngest to bring a team to the pinnacle of the NFL twice in his career. When the Steelers won their first title in this run with a very young team, Head Coach Bill Cowher had already coached in the Super Bowl once before, and he was able to use that experience to get through to his younger players. Unfortunately for Head Coach Mike McCarthy, he really doesn’t have that to rely on. Sure, DB Charles Woodson played in Super Bowl XXXVII with the Oakland Raiders, and DT Ryan Pickett did so in Super Bowl XXXVI with the St. Louis Rams, but aside from that, there isn’t a single player on this team that knows what it’s like to play in the biggest game of the season. Pittsburgh really needs to exploit that advantage to beat the Superbowl lines on February 6th.

Super Bowl XLV Odds at JustBet
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under 46
Click Here to Bet on Your Super Bowl Picks!

Key #2: The Packers need to figure out how to get into the face of Ben Roethlisberger
This is what the New York Jets had success with… sometimes. When Roethlisberger was kept in the pocket in the AFC Championship Game, he frequently made some mistakes. The pressure can really come from the outside, where Pittsburgh is very weak at the offensive tackle position, and this is a great thing for LB Clay Matthews, as these are the men that he is going to be going against. It’s when Big Ben breaks containment that things start to get hairy for the opponents. There might not be a signal caller that is better at escaping trouble and making something out of nothing than Roethlisberger in the entire league, and again, we have to stress the fact that he has really done it at every stage of the game in his career. Green Bay already has six INTs and 10 sacks so far in three playoff games this year. It really needs to make sure that Roethlisberger has hands in his face at all times and that he just doesn’t get to the outside, or these corners, no matter how great they are, just don’t stand a chance to win against guys like WR Mike Wallace, WR Antwaan Randle El, and WR Hines Ward.

Key #3: James Starks has to keep the Pittsburgh defense honest
We can be realistic when we say that Starks isn’t going to rush for 100 yards against the Pittsburgh defense in the Super Bowl, and we’re fairly sure that if he does, the Packers are going to be the champs and will beat the Super Bowl betting lines. However, the role that Starks has played, even though he has only averaged 3.76 yards per carry in the playoffs, is that he is taking some of the pressure off of QB Aaron Rodgers. Where this rookie from Buffalo has been all season long is beyond us, but he is clearly the best running back option that the Pack have had all season since losing RB Ryan Grant to a season ending ankle injury in Week 1. Starks, along with RB Brandon Jackson and RB John Kuhn, have to be able to keep Green Bay in front of the down and distance in this game. Punting is okay, but forcing Rodgers into situations in which he has to pick up third and long on a regular basis is going to create mistakes. The Steelers can overcome blunders every now and again. Odds have it, Green Bay won’t be able to. If Starks can’t at least get something going though, there is just going to be too much pressure on Rodgers, and he is going to be in for a very long game against a defense that just loves to make you one dimensional.

There are only three games left in the entire NFL betting campaign, but before we get ready to make our Super Bowl XLV picks, we have some unfinished business to tend to in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Check out our NFL prop picks for two of the biggest games of the entire season!

Will There Be a Score in the First 6.5 Minutes of the Game Bears/Packers Game?
We know that the Chicago offense got off to a great start last week against the Seattle Seahawks, but we also have to remember that these two teams have played some absolutely sparkling defense along the way as well. If the Bears get the ball first, there is a decent chance that a scoring drive might take over 6.5 minutes even if it does happen on the opening sequence, believe it or not. We’re believers that points could be at a premium on Sunday, and though that might not necessarily translate into a lower scoring game, we’ll take our chances that the first score doesn’t occur early on. Bank on there being No Score in the First 6.5 Minutes (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook) between the Bears and the Packers.

Will There Be a Safety in Both Championship Games?
This season, including the playoffs, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s right. Over the course of all of those games in the NFL betting schedule, 264 of them, there have only been 13 safeties. That’s one safety in every 4.9% of games played in the league this year. In 2009, there were only 14 safeties, including the playoffs. Let’s do some simple math here, shall we? Over the last 531 games in the NFL, there have been 27 safeties, or one safety in approximately 20 games (5.08%). If we can hit this prop at -1000 in 94.92% of our games, we’re going to be worth a ton of money. Over 1,000 games, at this price, if we were to bet $1,000 to win $100, we would have a profit of $4,412. Not a bad haul, eh? No Safety in the NFC Championship Game, and No Safety in the AFC Championship Game (-1000 Each Bet at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts
Rodgers certainly hasn’t been afraid to tuck it and run when he has to this season, as he was one of the best running options for a team that really didn’t have all that much to work with in that department in 2010. The former Cal Golden Bear took off 64 times this year and accounted for 356 yards in the regular season, but what impressed us the most is the fact that he had seven carries in the 10-3 win over these Bears in Week 17. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to this point yet in the playoffs, as he only has five carries in two games, but we tend to believe that this will be an exception, as the Chicago defense is a lot more prone to sending a lot of men after the quarterback, which could cause Rodgers to have to escape more often than he really wants to. He’ll go Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Matt Forte Over/Under 16.5 Yards on Longest Carry
It’s only one stroke of luck and one stroke of genius that will get Forte to this type of a number. We’ve seen that the Bears have stayed committed to Forte this season when they have had the chance to, and over the course of the last four games, he has at least 15 carries in all four outings and has averaged 19 carries per game. Forte isn’t really the most explosive runner in the world, but he has had a ton of opportunities, especially when he gets the ball in open space, to be able to take advantage and pick up some huge gainers. Over the course of the second half of the season, Chicago’s top running back has had a long carry of at least 17 yards six times, and we tend to believe that that will continue on Sunday. Forte’s longest carry will be Over 16.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks in the AFC Championship Game
We’re a tad surprised to see Hollywood hang a ‘5’ in this game instead of a ‘5.5’ due to the fact that last week, there were 11 sacks in the duel between the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. We know that there are a ton of problems right now for the Steelers up front, and the Jets have really yet to show their best pass rush in these playoffs to date. After getting after QB Tom Brady all week last week, we have no doubt that New York can get to QB Ben Roethlisberger in this one, and when it does, it is going to make those opportunities pay off. There is no way, with these two ferocious defenses, that there aren’t Over 5 Sacks (-130 at Hollywood Sportsbook) significantly more often than not.

LaDainian Tomlinson Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards
You know that LT is going to get his touches in this game, and you know that the Pittsburgh defense is going to do what it can to make sure that he doesn’t have the same 49 yards on 11 carries that he had when these two squads met last month. We know that Tomlinson hasn’t been used all that much as a receiver of late, but there is a point that QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to realize that he doesn’t have the time to work the ball up the field against this Pittsburgh defense. Last week, it was TE Todd Heap for the Ravens that made all of those catches over the middle of the field, and it is clear that Tomlinson is going to be asked to fill that role as a check down option at times when Sanchez is in trouble. LT will go Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Pittsburgh defense.

Heath Miller Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked just a tad about inside routes with Heap and the Steelers defense, but what about the New York ‘D’? This unit really doesn’t give up much of anything to anyone, but if there is a bit of a weakness, it is against teams that really utilize either tight ends or other receiving options to sit down in the middle of the field. Last week, Brady was really forced to do nothing but try to throw balls underneath to WR Deion Branch and TE Rob Gronkowski, while the week before, the Colts did the exact same thing with TE Jacob Tamme. Now, enter Heath Miller, who has had at least four catches in three straight games and is proving to be a great safety net for Roethlisberger when he gets himself out of some trouble in the pocket. Big Ben loves using his big time tight end, as Miller often gets at least a half dozen looks per game. He’s a big play threat up the seams and could be in for a lot of looks on Sunday, especially knowing that WR Mike Wallace and his friends are going to be worked a ton up the sides of the field. This is the man in the middle that should have a great day. Miller will go Over 3.5 Receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the New York ‘D’.

There’s only one game left for all of the marbles in the AFC this year, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will be vying for the last spot in Super Bowl XLV on Sunday night. These two teams play some brutal football, and they are sure to put on a real defensive showcase when they collide in the Steel City. The oddsmakers have given the host Steelers the 3.5 point nod in this one, but is it justified? These three keys to the game should be used to sort out your AFC Championship Game picks for 2011.

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Key #1: Pressuring Big Ben
Here’s the interesting thing about this game and this key in particular. The Jets absolutely cannot beat the Steelers if they don’t figure out how to get in the face of QB Ben Roethlisberger. This doesn’t mean that they need to really get their stats like they did against QB Tom Brady when they brought him down five times on Sunday, but they do need to at least get in Big Ben’s throwing lanes and cause him to take some extra hits and spend some more time in the pocket. For Pittsburgh, it probably isn’t vital that the O-Line keeps men away from Roethlisberger due to the fact that he is a huge man and can shake some tackles. However, no one wants to see their quarterback take a dozen or more shots on the day like the Jets are planning for Pittsburgh’s signal caller in this one. The depth problem for Pittsburgh at offensive tackle has been well documented, as this team is already three deep right now into its depth chart from the start of the year at that position, and there are absolutely no more injuries that can be afforded. The interior line is in fine shape, and this is where New York brings the majority of its pressure, but the whole unit of five, six, or even seven blockers on some plays, really has to be broken down by the Jets if they hope to survive in the Steel City.

Current AFC Championship Game Odds at JustBet
New York Jets +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Over/Under 38
Click Here to Bet on Your AFC Championship Game Picks!
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Key #2: Sanchez and company have to take care of the football
It really seems like the “Duh” statement of the year to think that the Jets have to keep a hold of the football in order to beat the Steelers, but this is exactly what the problem was for the Baltimore Ravens last week. If RB Ray Rice doesn’t fumble that screen pass or if QB Joe Flacco doesn’t fumble that snap or make that ill advised throw… if any of those things don’t happen, this game is likely being played in Baltimore and not in Pittsburgh. The Jets have just as much firepower on offense as Baltimore does, but they don’t have nearly as much confidence in QB Mark Sanchez as the Ravens do in QB Joe Flacco. However, on Sunday against the New England Patriots, “The Sanchise” was on fire, as he threw three TD passes and was not picked off. In fact, the Jets didn’t turn the ball over once on the day, something that is amazing against a defense that led the league in picks on the campaign. It seems awfully fundamental to think about, but it really is this simple. If the Jets turn the ball over more than once in this one, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Steelers need to make sure that they get the job done and get the ball back in the hands of their offense, where the real damage can be done. Remember when these two teams met the first time that S Troy Polamalu didn’t play. He’s a real difference maker in the center of this defense, and he could be a turnover forcing machine come Sunday.

Key #3: Rashard Mendenhall has to be big
If there’s one player for the Steelers that really has to have an impact game on Sunday, it is RB Rashard Mendenhall. He is the man that is going to keep the pressure off of Big Ben and the passing game, and he is also the one that can frustrate this defense to no end if he can keep the ball moving on the ground and keep that clock going. Mendenhall rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries the first time around when these teams met, proving that New York indeed had a beatable defense this year on the ground. This was still a unit that ranked No. 2 in the AFC and No. 3 in the league at just 90.1 yards per game this year, and the Jets did a fantastic job holding down the Pats, as neither RB Danny Woodhead nor RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis reached the 50 yard barrier on the day on Sunday. When Mendenhall reaches the 100+ yard barrier, the Steelers generally win, though obviously this was a huge exception this year. Pittsburgh was 5-0 when Mendenhall reached 100+ yards in his career prior to this point. You can bet that he is going to get his carries like he did last week against Baltimore, and when push comes to shove, having him make a big impact on this game might be the difference between going to the Super Bowl and watching it on TV for the men from the Steel City.

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The first spot in Super Bowl XLV will be handed out on Sunday, January 23rd at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL, as the Chicago Bears will take on the Green Bay Packers. These two teams know all about each other, having already played two games this season, with the home team winning both duels. The Bears covered both sets of NFL odds in these divisional clashes, and the oddsmakers still have them as three point underdogs on Sunday. Which team will beat the NFC Championship odds? Check out these three keys to the game that should be the deciding factors.

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Key #1: The Bears need to play defense like they did in the first half against Seattle and not in the second half
We know that the NFC Divisional Round duel against the Seattle Seahawks was really a tale of two halves for the Bears, as they were completing dominating for about two and a half quarters before pulling up lame down the stretch and nearly blowing the cover. However, this is a unit that has just been downright nasty all season long, allowing just 90.1 yards per game on the ground in the regular season. Chicago only allowed 34 yards on 12 carries in its first postseason tussle as well. The Bears did allow 331.5 yards per game in the regular season to these Packers, but we really know better. A lot of the yards for QB Aaron Rodgers were created from just a few big plays, but they ultimately were not parlayed into all that many points. Keeping this team to just 27 points in two games is definitely a feat to be proud of. There were also two turnovers forced by the men from the Windy City in this one, which is a problem that the Packers have had at times over the course of this season. They’ve done a great job of protecting the pigskin thus far in the second season, especially against the Falcons when they had just one blown fumble, and the three turnovers that they have had haven’t really come back to bite them.

Current NFC Championship Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Green Bay Packers -3
Chicago Bears +3
Over/Under 44
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Key #2: Alright Jay Cutler… What’ve you got?
This isn’t necessarily a key that will cause Chicago to win this game, but it certainly could be a key to losing it. Cutler has been much maligned since coming to the Windy City, as he has thrown 42 picks in two years after throwing for just 37 picks in two and a half years with the Denver Broncos. The media in the Midway has been all over his case about not protecting the football and not coming up big in big games, and there are certainly still some reasons to believe that this is the case after winning his first playoff game on Sunday. Cutler did only go 15-of-28 on the day, a completion percent of just 53.6 percent, and this came against a defense that was dreadful against the pass all year long. The former Vanderbilt Commodore did toss three picks in two games against Green Bay in the regular season, and he ended the season with 16 boo boos. Enter the Packers ‘D’. This unit had 24 picks in the regular season, the most in the NFC and just one behind the New England Patriots for the league lead. We always thought that you wouldn’t find a better ball hawk in the game than DB Charles Woodson, but we were wrong. DB Tramon Williams has developed a tremendous nose for the ball, and he had the amazing pick six that sunk the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday. If Cutler gets careless with the football, he will throw picks to this team, and if he does that, the Bears don’t stand a chance.

Key #3: The battle at the line of scrimmage
You can bet that line play is going to be preached on both sides of the football this week. The Packers probably think they can get away with a little more leniency on this facet of the game because they are so talented elsewhere, but the team that wins this battle is most likely going to be the one that wins this game. Neither offensive line was that sharp all year, as neither opened up that many holes for the running game. Even in the divisional round games, the Bears averaged just 3.91 yards per carry (and that includes a 21 yard scamper by Cutler), while the Packers only averaged 3.10 yards per carry. Chicago’s OL is going to have to find a way to stop a Green Bay front that had five sacks of QB Matt Ryan on Saturday night, two of which came from one of the biggest sack masters in the league, LB Clay Matthews. The Packers are going to have to contend with a front seven that just has a mean streak in it, and though the Bears did really have the individual stats this year that some of the players on Green Bay’s ‘D’ did, they had the second best defensive front in terms of rushing this year in the league at just 90.1 yards per game.

Saturday marks the first day of 2011 NFL playoff betting action, as four teams begin their quest to win the Lombardi Trophy. Check out some of the best props on the board for today’s NFL betting action!

Reggie Bush Rushing + Receiving Yards Over/Under 77.5
We’re taking a bit of a gamble here on Bush, as we know that he could be in a position where he just doesn’t touch the ball all that much. However, we do have a few things on our side in this one. First off, we tend to believe that the Saints are going to be winning this game the whole way, which really should prompt a tremendous amount of carries for someone in this backfield. The second thing on our side is that we know that there aren’t really any healthy rushing options for Head Coach Sean Peyton to turn to, as all of his top backs are on the shelf in this one. Will it be RB Julius Jones, or Bush getting the rock more often than not? We tend to believe that the answer is Bush, and if that’s the case, he should easily get to this number. Especially when you consider the fact that you know the former USC Trojan is good for at least three or four catches on the day as well, we have to go with Bush Over 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in Wild Card Weekend.

New Orleans Saints Margin of Victory
This is the type of prop that we only like to play in certain situations. However, knowing that the Saints are already laying 11 points in this game, it seems like a good conclusion that they are going to be winning this one by at least double that more than one out of seven times. The Seahawks have already been railroaded by lesser teams by this many points at home this year, and there is a decent chance that the wheels could just fall off of the train at some point for the hosts. No, we’re not saying that New Orleans is a lock to win this game, or that we necessarily think that they are beating the NFL odds in this one more often than not, but we do think that we are getting a fantastic price here on them to win this game by at least 22 points. New Orleans Saints Margin of Victory 22 Points or More (+700 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Mark Sanchez Longest Completion Over/Under 31.5 Yards
This is perhaps the strongest prop on the board, as it is the weakest number that the oddsmakers have put up there. Sanchez has a number of weapons at his disposal that can stretch the field, namely WR Santonio Holmes and WR Braylon Edwards. He takes his fair share of shots down the field over the course of the game, and here, we are just asking him to pull the trigger for one shot of at least 32 yards. That’s something that Sanchez has already done ten times this year in just 15 starts. Yes, we know that we are factoring into the equation getting hurt and all of that, but without any unforeseen circumstances, especially in a game in which we know that Head Coach Rex Ryan is pulling out all of the stops, there is no reason to think that Sanchez’s longest completion won’t be Over 31.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) against the Colts.

Peyton Manning First Pass Complete Or Incomplete
C’mon Hollywood… Give us a break. Manning completed right around 2/3 of his passes this year, completing 66.2 percent of all attempts, and that doesn’t even include all of the times that he spiked the football. Sure, the Jets have a fantastic defense, but this is a gimme. We know that this is cashing at least two out of three times, and if that’s the case, we’re going to make quite a good bit of money on this NFL prop bet. Manning’s first pass will be Complete (-190 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Adam Vinetiari Over/Under 7.5 Points
You don’t see us try our hand at the various kicker props all that often, but this is a great situation to be in right now. We really probably only need Vinetiari to kick two field goals in this game for him to get past the 7.5 point mark, and we tend to think, especially in the playoffs, that this is going to happen at least 60 percent of the time. Sure, we know that Vinetiari only reached this point eight times on the season, and we know that he doesn’t have a leg that can boot the ball 50+ yards anymore, but we also know that this is playoff time, and there isn’t a kicker that has nailed more clutch kicks in his career than this man has. Especially kicking in absolutely perfect conditions in the dome, there’s no reason to believe that Vinetiari can’t go Over 7.5 Points (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) at least six out of ten times.