Posts Tagged ‘NFL trends’

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (9/20/10)

September 19th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (9/20/10)
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Last week, neither the New Orleans Saints nor the San Francisco 49ers looked all that sharp. The difference is, the Saints found a way to win, while the 49ers were absolutely embarrassed by the Seattle Seahawks. Will this week be any different? Our NFL handicappers take a look at the NFL props for our Monday Night Football picks!

Will Frank Gore Score a Touchdown?
Gore had an absolutely atrocious game last week trying to get going against the Seattle front seven. This week, he should find the sledding just a tad easier against a New Orleans defense that is still prone to giving up a ton of yards and a boatload of points. Unlike other situations in the NFL, there is no doubt who is getting the ball by the goal line for the Niners when they’re down close. The University of Miami grad is going to be a key in this game, and if he doesn’t find the end zone at least once, the 49ers aren’t going to stand a chance of winning this game. Don’t think that HC Mike Singletary doesn’t know that either. Go with Gore to Score a TD (+115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday night.

Vernon Davis Over/Under 60.5 Receiving Yards
There could be a very, very soft underbelly for the New Orleans Saints in the form of defending the tight end. Last week, TE Visanthe Shiancoe absolutely tore them up, and he was the only man that really had no defense against the Minnesota Vikings. This week, QB Alex Smith’s favorite target is going to be his tight end once again, as TE Vernon Davis is one of the most underrated players in the league at this point. Don’t be overly shocked to see him go absolutely bananas in this game, especially after having a solid start to the season last week. We’d be quite surprised if he didn’t get to Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Reggie Bush Over/Under 55.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Last week, we didn’t get a huge look at what RB Reggie Bush could do against a very strong Minnesota front seven. This week, with the 49ers posing less of a challenge, there could be significantly more touches in store for the one time No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft. Bush would love a big game to silence his critics amongst all of this Heisman Trophy garbage from 2005. HC Sean Peyton knows that he really needs to put the ball in Bush’s hands at least ten times in this one, whether it be in the passing game or as a running back. If he does that, we’ll take our chances with Over 55.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (9/19/10)

September 19th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (9/19/10)
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When the Manning brothers take center stage on NBC’s Sunday Night Football, all of the eyes in the NFL betting world will be glued to the TV. Tonight is no exception, as the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants will square off. Use our top NFL handicappers to cash in on these props for the game!

Longest Field Goal Over/Under 45.5 Yards
You have to have a field goal attempt of at least 46 yards before you can have a made one from that far away. We have absolutely no confidence in Giants’ K Lawrence Tynes, and it is becoming more and more apparent as the months go on that the Colts have no confidence in K Adam Vinetiari to kick the ball this far. Last week, head coach Jim Caldwell had a chance to kick a 49 yard field goal in the first half against the Houston Texans and instead eschewed the opportunity in favor of going for it on 4th and 8. And the oddsmakers think there is going to be a boot of 46 yards in this game at least half the time? We certainly don’t. Go with Under 45.5 yards (+100 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Sunday night.

Total Sacks Over/Under 3.5
Last week, the offensive line for the Colts was atrocious against Houston, and though there are no pass rushers on the Giants that are worthy of being in the same discussion with DE Mario Williams, there is plenty of pressure to be had from men like DE Justin Tuck and DE Osi Umenyiora. The Colts are still going with a very young and very inexperienced offensive line, particularly at the tackle positions. We already know that DE Dwight Freeney and his band of men will have no problems getting after QB Eli Manning either on the other side of the ball. When push comes to shove, both teams should have at least a pair of sacks on the day, which gives us a great price on Over 3.5 sacks (+110 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Peyton Manning Over/Under 300.5 Passing Yards
Let’s be realistic here for a second. We know that QB Peyton Manning is good. In fact, he’s great. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, he might break every single passing record in the book when push comes to shove, and he is the best Indianapolis Colt in team history, and that’s saying a lot considering that Johnny Unitas is already calling me on Line 2. Still, is Manning really throwing for 5,000 yards this year? That’s what it’s going to take to beat this prop on a consistent enough basis for us to bet the over. Instead, let’s be realistic. Remember that last week when Manning completed 40 passes, his team was playing from behind the entire time, not from ahead. Inevitably, RB Joseph Addai will be more involved in the offense. We know that we’re playing with fire when we do this, but c’mon… Manning is going to stay (Under 300.5 passing yards -115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) more often than not.

Joseph Addai Over/Under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Let’s keep this one short and sweet. Addai only had ten carries last week, and he still accounted for 73 rushing and receiving yards. There isn’t another back on this team that is going to be stealing carries, and the temptation is going to be there for Manning to scale back just a tad after last week’s phenomenal performance. The former LSU Tiger badly needs a good game to help salvage his season, and we tend to believe that via pass and via rush, he’ll find a way to sneak Over 79.5 rushing and receiving yards(-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this one against the G-Men.

2010 NFL Trends: Week 2 Cheat Sheet

September 16th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Trends: Week 2 Cheat Sheet
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Week 2 of the NFL season is right around the corner! The handicapping experts of Bankroll Sports have key releases for you this weekend. Props and free picks will be available to you on our sports blog as well. However, to kick off this NFL betting week, we’re going to take a look at the most important NFL trends and matchup histories for the Week 2 NFL matchups.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
NFL Trends of Note
-The Bucs are just 5-16 ATS in their L/21 on grass
-Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its L/9 vs. the NFC
-Rookie starting QBs are already 0-1 SU and ATS this season

Series History
The Bucs haven’t beaten the Panthers either SU or ATS since the first meeting of these two rivals in 2008. Carolina hasn’t been swept by Tampa Bay in a number of years, and the Bucs haven’t taken a duel on Tobacco Road since September 2007.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
NFL Trends of Note
-Pittsburgh is just 2-8-1 ATS over the L/11 years in Week 2
-Tennessee is 3-7 ATS over the L/10 years in Week 2
-The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their L/6 overall

Series History
These two teams flat out don’t like each other. They have met quite a bit in the playoffs and in the regular season in recent years, and the battles have, for the most part, gone to the home team. The host has won seven of the L/9 in this series with one road win coming for each team since that point as well. Pittsburgh won last year’s battle 13-10 in overtime in Steeltown by lost 31-14 the last time it played at LP Field.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers
NFL Trends of Note
-The Bills are 12-3 ATS in their L/15 tries in Week 2
-Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 road games
-The Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their L/10 overall

Series History
Buffalo hasn’t visited Green Bay since 2002 and hasn’t scored a point there since 1997. The home team has won every game in this series dating back to 1991, which was the last time the Bills won a game in Lambeau Field. Buffalo is also 7-3 ATS over the L/10 meetings dating back to 1988 between these squads.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
NFL Trends of Note
-The Chiefs have covered five of their L/6 road games
-Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its L/6 against the AFC
-The Browns are winless in their L/4 games ATS in September

Series History
Classics certainly don’t describe the games these teams have played in their histories. The Brownies have been all over the Chiefs since 2003, going 4-0 SU and ATS against them. Cleveland holds a 4-2 SU and ATS advantage all-time. The winning score in this series has been at least 31 points in four of the six meetings.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
NFL Trends of Note
-Arizona is just 7-22 ATS in its L/29 road games against teams with a losing home record
-The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their L/8 following a game in which they held their opponent to 14 points or less
-Atlanta is 13-3 ATS in its L/16 following an SU defeat

Series History
The home team has won four straight and nine out of ten between these two teams in the regular season, but the key NFL trend to watch here in on the ‘over’. Three straight and seven of the L/8 have eclipsed the number, as the home team has scored at least 30 points in three straight and at least 29 in eight of the L/9.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
NFL Trends of Note
-The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 against teams with a losing record
-Detroit is 2-6-2 ATS in its L/10 against the NFC
-The Lions are 3-7-2 ATS in their L/12 overall

Series History
These two teams have only met five times since 1986, with Philly winning all five both SU and ATS. The Lions have been beaten by at least 17 in three of the five games and by at least three TDs twice in that stretch. Philly has averaged 35.6 PPG in its L/5 against the Lions. This is only Philadelphia’s second trip to the Motor City since the 1980s (30-13 ‘W’ in 2004).

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
NFL Trends of Note
-The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their L/10 overall
-Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its L/10 against the NFC
-Dallas is a rock solid 6-2 its L/8 home games

Series History
Chicago hasn’t beaten the Cowboys since 1998 and hasn’t beaten them in “Big D” since 1986 when they were still Super Bowl shuffling! Dallas owns a 5-2 ATS advantage between these conference foes since 1988. Seven of the L/9 have failed to exceed the ‘total’, as the losing team hasn’t scored more than 14 points in a game in this series since the early 1980s.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
NFL Trends of Note
-The Fins are 6-1 ATS in their L/7 away from South Beach
-Miami is 11-25-1 ATS in its L/37 against teams with a losing record
-The Vikes are 5-0-1 ATS in their L/6 played at home

Series History
There certainly isn’t much of a history between these two teams, but the history that exists is all in favor of the home team. Miami won in 2006 24-20 when these teams collided in the Sunshine State, but Minnesota upset the Fins 20-17 at home in 2002. The only road win since the 1980s of these teams owns to Minnesota, which won 20-7 in 2001.

Sunday, September 19th, 1:00 PM ET: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Trends of Note
-Baltimore is 11-1 ATS in its L/12 against teams with a losing record
-Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its L/10 against teams with a winning record
-The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their L/11 against the Ravens

Series History
Last season, the Bengals were underdogs in both games in this season series and won both outright. Baltimore swept the season series in ’08, but before that, it was all Cincy. The Bengals, for whatever reason, love playing the Ravens, as they have a better record against the purple and black since ’05 than against any other team in the AFC North.

Sunday, September 19th, 4:05 PM ET: Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
NFL Trends of Note
-Seattle is just 1-8 ATS in its L/9 road games
-The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 against teams with a losing record
-Denver is only 8-21-1 ATS in its L/30 games at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium

Series History
These two teams used to share a division together, but since splitting up, the only meeting was a 23-20 win for the Seahawks on the road here in the Mile High City. The home team won three of the four between 2000 and 2001 before the Seahawks switched over to the NFC.

Sunday, September 19th, 4:05 PM ET: St. Louis Rams @ Oakland Raiders
NFL Trends of Note
-St. Louis is 2-8 ATS in its L/10 games on grass
-The Raiders are 16-38-1 ATS in their L/55 against teams with a losing record
-Oakland is just 17-38-1 ATS in its L/56 at Oakland Alameda County Coliseum

Series History
The Rams posted a shutout over the Raiders in their last meeting in 2006 (20-0). Oakland hasn’t traveled to St. Louis since 2002 and hasn’t beaten the Rams since 1997. St. Louis is 3-0 ATS against the Raiders in the 2000s.

Sunday, September 19th, 4:15 PM ET: New England Patriots @ New York Jets
NFL Trends of Note
-New England is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 played in Week 2
-The Jets are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 overall
-The Pats are 10-4-1 ATS in the L/15 against the Jets

Series History
More bad news for the men in green… The road team is 19-7-1 ATS over the L/27 in this series. The Jets could be in some serious trouble if they don’t come up with an upset like they did last year in this same week of the season against the Pats. New England has won seven of the L/10 in this series SU and six of the ten ATS.

Sunday, September 19th, 4:15 PM ET: Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers
NFL Trends of Note
-Jacksonville is 7-23 ATS in its L/30 played on grass
-The Jags are 8-20 ATS in their L/28 against teams with a losing record
-San Diego is 19-93 ATS in its L/31 games following an SU loss

Series History
These teams have only met three times since the Jags have been in existence, and it’s been all one way traffic for the home team. Jacksonville won the last meeting 24-17 in 2007, but the home team is 3-0 SU and ATS. The favorite is also 2-1 SU and ATS, with the only upset belonging to the 2004 Chargers, who upset Jacksonville 34-21.

Sunday, September 19th, 4:15 PM ET: Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins
NFL Trends of Note
-The Texans are 5-2-2 ATS in their L/9 against teams with a winning record
-Washington is 6-2-1 ATS in its L/9 overall
-Houston is just 2-8 ATS in its L/10 against teams with a winning home record

Series History
This will only be the third meeting ever between these two teams. This is one of the few teams that the Texans have never beaten. Houston lost 31-15 at home to the ‘Skins in 2006 and was dropped 26-10 in its inaugural season in 2002 in its lone visit to Landover.

Sunday, September 19th, 8:20 PM ET: New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts
NFL Trends of Note
-The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their L/8 games on field turf
-The G-Men are 3-9 ATS in their L/12 overall
-New York is 23-8 ATS in its L/31 road games

Series History
Manning Bowl I went to the elder Manning, as Peyton’s boys pummeled the G-Men 26-21 in 2006. This is Eli’s first visit to Peyton’s Place. The road team is 3-0 both SU and ATS in this series dating back to 1999. New York holds a 3-2 ATS and SU edge since 1990.

Monday, September 13th, 8:30 PM ET: New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
NFL Trends of Note
-The Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their L/9 games on grass
-San Fran is 8-2-2 ATS in its L/12 against teams with a winning record
-The Niners are 16-5 ATS in their L/21 Monday Night Football betting clashes

Series History
The Saints are a rock solid 10-2 ATS in their L/12 against San Fran, which could be bad news for the already 0-1 Niners. New Orleans hasn’t lost a game in this series since 2002 in the postseason, and hasn’t dropped a regular season duel since 2001.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Prop Picks (9/13/10)

September 13th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Prop Picks (9/13/10)
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NFL football betting fans will get their first taste of Monday Night Football action tonight! The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Diego Chargers in the nightcap, but in the main course, the Baltimore Ravens will face the New York Jets. Check out these prop picks for the first Monday of the year.

Ray Rice Over 80.5 Yards
Even though the Ravens are probably going to have more of a chance of focusing in on the passing game now that WR TJ Houshmanzadeh and WR Anquan Boldin are in the fray, that doesn’t mean that Rice isn’t going to be a dominating force this year. Without DL Calvin Pace in the lineup, the big boys up front are going to be thinner than normal for the Jets. Conventional wisdom suggests that New York, who had one of the best rush defenses in the NFL last year, would be able to shut Rice down. We tend to think otherwise. Rice Over 80.5 yards carries (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) is the choice for this prop.

Will Mark Sanchez Throw a TD or INT First?
The oddsmakers did a nice job making this line to try to throw you off. On one hand, it is clear that Sanchez threw more INTs than TDs last year. On the other, Baltimore is going to be crushed in the secondary with injuries. However, we still look at a guy like Ed Reed and the depth in that front seven and wonder how Sanchez is going to be finding ways to find the end zone either on the ground or through the air. That being said, the only team that can pressure a quarterback more than Baltimore might be the team on the other side of the field. If the Ravens can get to Sanchez as we expect, especially right up the middle in what could be a relatively shaky center of the Jets offensive line, Sanchez could be prone to multiple INTs in this one. Go with Sanchez to throw an INT first (-110 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Longest TD of the Game Over/Under 43.5 Yards
Neither one of these offenses has the same type of firepower that they did last year on offense in terms of explosive plays, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t think there will be a long touchdown at any point over the course of this game. Remember that we have both special teams and defensive tuddies that count in here as well. Javier Arenas is going to want to make a great impression on his new team on kick and punt returns, and he was one of the most prolific returners in the history of college football. LaDainian Tomlinson is gone, but both RBs Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles are potential home run hitters for the Bolts. We also know that new OC Charlie Weis is going to do the best he can to stretch the field and get some confidence in a relatively weak crop of receivers. We already know that his QB Matt Cassel certainly has the arm to make this work. At some point, there is bound to be at least one score that goes Over 43.5 yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Antonio Gates Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards
The bottom line here is that QB Philip Rivers is just more comfortable throwing the ball to his massive tight end than he is anywhere else, especially with WR Vincent Jackson still holding out. Yes, there will be plenty of dump offs to Mathews and Sproles out of the backfield, and WR Malcom Floyd might be in for a big day as well, but unless the Chiefs are going to use Eric Berry to shadow Gates the entire game, there could be a ton of holes in the middle of this defense. Look for HC Norv Turner to find ways to get Gates in some open space, even if that means lining him up at wide receiver from time to time. He’ll get at least ten looks in this game, and if that’s the case, he’ll come down with at least seven of the ten and easily fly past this number. Gates will well exceed Over 74.5 yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).