Posts Tagged ‘Player props’

Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

January 26th, 2015 by Chad A. Dawkins | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on Super Bowl XLIX Player and Team Prop Picks

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Free NFL Team and Player Prop Picks For Super Bowl XLIX

The center of the sports world will be in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, February 1st for Super Bowl XLIX featuring the AFC Champion New England Patriots and NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks. This is easily the most wagered game of the year, and here at Bankroll Sports we’ll take a look some prop bets that present some value in the big game.

Superbowl Props @ Bovada Sportsbook (as of 01/26/15):
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Super Bowl XLIX, Sunday, February 1, 2015
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
Current line: New England -2 Total: 47.5

Tom Brady Total TD passes: Over 2.5 (+160)
Great value here. What have you have heard all through the media since the AFC Championship? DeflateGate. The Patriots are cheaters, Tom Brady is a cheater. Let’s rewind back to 2007, when the whole spygate thing cam out after their week 1 win against the Jets. After all the hoopla and criticism that week, the Patriots came out and destroyed San Diego. I expect Tom Brady to be more than motivated to put on a spectacular performance. There’s another guy that could help him out and tell him the weaknesses of Seattle’s secondary, and that would be Patriot cornerback Brandon Browner, a former Seahawk. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady goes against Darrelle Revis in practice every week. Tom Brady will definitely bring his ‘A’ game.

Will LeGarrette Blount (NE) score a TD in the first half? Yes (+180)
The Patriots will without a doubt want to establish a solid run game, and they can do it against a Seattle front 7 that has shown they can be run on. Blount is the go-to guy for the Patriots, and at this price, it presents a lot of value.

Will Rob Gronkowski (NE) score a TD in the game? No (+145)
Will Gronk make a difference in the game? Absolutely, he will have the total attention of the Seahawks secondary. Seattle has an excellent red zone defense, and they have a safety in Kam Chancellor, who will match up extremely well with him. Gronk will make a difference, but I’m not so sure how effective he’ll be in the red zone.

Total Interceptions – Russell Wilson (SEA) Over ½ (-110) 2 (+500)
Yes, the over ½ is not a positive EV wager, but this will without a doubt be the best secondary and possibly the best defense Wilson has faced. This is a guy that threw four interceptions in the NFC championship, and his confidence level can’t be all that hi. I think this is a solid wager, considering the circumstances. Getting +500 for Wilson to throw 2 interceptions is great value.

Total Rushing Yards – Marshawn Lynch (SEA) Under 89.5 (-105)
You have to look at it this way, with 2 weeks to prepare, what will Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan be? Well, looking at history, they will look to take away what Seattle does best. Lynch is by far the most important part of their offense, and I think the Patriots will look to limit Lynch and put the game in Russell Wilson’s hands.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD in the game? Yes +155
Both defenses are capable of scoring in this game, and in my opinion, and among many of the so-called ‘experts’ these are two of the most complete defensive units in the league with outstanding secondaries. I think we’ll see a defensive touchdown in this game, and I think there is some solid value here and I’m honestly surprised to see this kind of price here.