Posts Tagged ‘pro football trends’

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/25/10)

October 24th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/25/10)
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NFC East arch rivals are going to be going at it on Monday Night Football, and here at Bankroll Sports, we have all of your best NFL prop plays for the night. Be sure not to miss all of these great prop picks, as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants fight it out in a tilt that could change the face of the chase in the division and in the NFC as a whole.

Hakeem Nicks Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
We know that Nicks is QB Eli Manning’s favorite target, and there are games that he just seems to lock in on Nicks and never let go. However, Dallas knows that as well and isn’t foolish. You can bet that coverage will be rolled that direction, just as it was last week against the Giants when Nicks only caught three passes for eight yards on the day. The man out of North Carolina has been dealing with nagging injuries all week that have kept him out of practice. Does that mean more reps for WR Mario Manningham and WR Steve Smith? Probably. The only issue is that we aren’t so sure that these two are going to really be the big men in the passing game. What we are sure of though, is that Nicks should be staying Under 6.5 receptions (-120 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Felix Jones Over/Under 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
It seems like Jones is the new back du jour for the Cowboys this year, as he has seemingly replaced RB Marion Barber as the feature man in this lineup. Jones was used out of the backfield last week against the Minnesota Vikings quite a bit, as he caught ten passes and was truly remarkable in that standpoint. That’s the only thing that scares us on this prop. The Giants have a very tough nosed rush defense that really kept even the best of the league, RB Chris Johnson down for the majority of the game. We tend to think that Dallas is going to need more of the power rushing game and less of the glitz and glamour that Jones has to offer. QB Tony Romo will be kept busy once again, which will make for a lighter day for Jones unless he is used as a receiver. Go with the man out of Arkansas Under 78.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Total Sacks by Both Teams Over/Under 4
It’s tough to end up with more than four sacks in a game, but we are going to go there on Monday Night Football. This line probably should be at 4.5, and probably would be if not for the nagging injuries to DEs Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Osi Umenyiora. Umenyiora has been absolutely beastlike since entering the starting lineup again, as he has seven sacks and six forced fumbles during this three game winning streak. He now has eight sacks on the year and is just shy of the league lead in that category. Remember that on the other side of the field, LB DeMarcus Ware already has six sacks as well. Both of these teams love to throw the football, and both have an easy time getting after the passer. Don’t be surprised if this prop turns out to be relatively easy. There should be Over 4 Sacks (-105 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

2010 NFL Trends: Week 7 Cheat Sheet

October 24th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Trends: Week 7 Cheat Sheet
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Week 7 of the NFL season is right around the corner! The handicapping experts of Bankroll Sports have key releases for you this weekend. Props and free picks will be available to you on our sports blog as well. However, to kick off this NFL betting week, we’re going to take a look at the most important NFL trends and matchup histories for the Week 7 NFL matchups.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 ET: San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
NFL Trends of Note
San Fran is 7-1-3 ATS in its L/11 following an ATS defeat
The Niners are 7-18-1 ATS in their L/26 played in October
Carolina is 9-3 ATS in its L/12 against NFC opponents

Series History
These two teams used to duke it out twice a year before 2002’s realignment that brought the Houston Texans into the league. However, this is always a series that has belonged to the Panthers. San Fran has failed to cover three straight, nine out of ten, and 13 out of 16 in this series. Carolina owns the L/2 games outright in this series, winning 31-14 at home and 37-27 at AT&T Park. If you’re a fan of high scoring games, this one is for you as well. Eight of the L/10 dating back to 1998 have gone ‘over’ the ‘total’, with the average score since then reaching a whopping 53.7 points per game.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
NFL Trends of Note
The Bills are 5-13 ATS in their L/18 against teams with winning records
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in its L/13 road games
The Ravens are 11-3 ATS in their L/14 against teams with a losing record

Series History
Since moving from Cleveland, the Ravens have only met Buffalo five times in the regular season. In those five meetings, Buffalo owns a 3-2 SU and ATS edge. The most recent meeting came in 2007, a 19-14 win for the host Bills. The L/4 have all stayed ‘under’ the number, and strangely enough, all four ‘totals’ were posted at the very low 36 or less. No team has scored more than 22 points in this series since 1990.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Trends of Note
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their L/5 as underdogs
St. Louis is 18-40-1 ATS in its L/59 road games against teams with winning home records
The Bucs have covered five straight following a double digit home loss

Series History
Remember the days when the vaunted Bucs defense was taking on the “Greatest Show on Turf?” What the heck happened to those days? Since that point, these two squads have only really met as iffy teams, with the hosts claiming three straight at home both SU and ATS. Tampa Bay won 24-3 in ’07 at Raymond James Stadium, which was the last meeting of these squads. The home team has won three straight SU and is 2-0-1 ATS in that stretch. The Bucs are 6-0-1 ATS since 1994.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
NFL Trends of Note
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 games played in Week 7
The Fins are 15-41-1 ATS in their L/57 home games
Miami is 7-3 ATS in its L/10 games played in the month of October

Series History
Last season, the Steelers ended any hopes of the Dolphins making the playoffs by beating them 30-24 on the final day of the regular season. Little did either team know that the game wouldn’t matter at all. These two have played some ugly games over the years, including a 3-0 game decided with a field goal at the gun at Heinz Field on Monday Night Football in 2007. Four of the L/6 have stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’. The Steelers have won four straight in this series and are 3-1 ATS in those four games.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears
NFL Trends of Note
The Redskins are 6-1-4 ATS in their L/11 games played on grass
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its L/8 home games
The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their L/11 on this surface

Series History
It’s been quite awhile since the Redskins were the dominant team of the 1990s when they rolled off five straight in this series SU and went 4-1 ATS in those five games. The Bears still only have two wins in this series since they were doing the Super Bowl Shuffle, and they only have three covers in the L/10 tries as well. Washington nailed down a 24-16 win in 2007 at home, but its last visit to the Windy City came way back in 2004, a 13-10 win. In fact, Chicago hasn’t covered a game in this series since the 1980s while playing at (either) Soldier Field.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
NFL Trends of Note
The Bengals are 3-10 ATS in their L/13 overall
Cincinnati is 5-2-1 ATS in its L/8 games played in Week 7
The Falcons are 7-3 in their L/10 duels played at the Georgia Dome

Series History
You have to go all the way back to 1996 to find the last time that the Bengals won a game in this series, but there haven’t been all that many encounters since that point. The Falcons won in 2006, 2002, and 1999 both SU and ATS. Even if you want to include the preseason, this has been a lopsided series. Atlanta has gone 8-0 SU and ATS if you want to include exhibitions dating back to 1996. You need to go back into the early 1990s to find the last win for the Bengals here in the Peach State.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans
NFL Trends of Note
The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 played in the month of October
Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in its L/12 against teams with a winning record
The Titans are 7-3 ATS over the L/10 years in games played in Week 7

Series History
The Titans have taken three straight in this series SU and back to back ATS. There have only meet three meetings since the move to Tennessee from Houston, and needless to say, they haven’t been happy ones for the men from the City of Brotherly Love. Philly has been held to 13 points in two of the three meetings, while allowing the Titans to score 24.3 points per game.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Trends of Note
The Jags are just 8-26 ATS in their L/34 games played on natural grass
Jacksonville is only 5-13 ATS in its L/18 overall
KC is 5-2-1 ATS in its L/8 played in Week 7

Series History
It is surprising that these two teams have played each other so often even though the Jaguars haven’t been in existence all that long, relatively speaking. The Jags have captured back to back games outright, including a 24-21 win last year at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. However, KC covered the seven point NFL lines, marking just its second cover in five tries since 2001. The ‘totals’ have been evenly split this decade with three ‘overs’ and three ‘unders’.

Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM ET: Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
NFL Trends of Note
Cleveland is 9-3 ATS in its L/12 games played in October
The Browns are 9-4 ATS in their L/13 overall
New Orleans is just 2-7 ATS in its L/9 played on field turf

Series History
Remember when QB Tim Couch successfully hit that Hail Mary here in the Superdome in 1999 for the first ever victory for the new Cleveland Browns? Since that point, these teams have only met two other times, with Cleveland winning 24-15 here at the ‘Dome, and the Saints capturing a 19-14 ‘W’ in 2006 up north. It’s interesting that this is the only team in football that has never lost a game in the Superdome. The underdog is 3-0 ATS, while two of the three meetings have stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’ after the first only got there due to the last second shenanigans.

Sunday, October 24th, 4:05 PM ET: Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
NFL Trends of Note
The Cards are 9-3 ATS in their L/12 against teams with a winning record
Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its L/8 against teams with a winning record
The Seahawks are just 2-7 ATS over the L/9 years in Week 7

Series History
The less important NFL trend to note in this series is that the home team has gone 6-2 ATS over the L/4 seasons. The more important one is that Arizona has covered four straight and six out of seven. The Redbirds have been absolutely dominating, winning all six of those games that they covered in this stretch. They have three straight in this series by double digits. You have to go back to the first meeting in 2006 to find the last time that Arizona was held under 20 points in a game in this series.

Sunday, October 24th, 4:05 PM ET: New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
NFL Trends of Note
The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 against teams with winning records
San Diego is just 2-6 ATS in its L/8 played in October
New England has failed to cover a game in this series since 2007

Series History
Yes, the Bolts have taken the last two clashes of these AFC titans from an ATS standpoint, winning 30-10 outright in 2008 and covering the 14 point spread in a 21-12 defeat . However, the Pats have really won the war with these guys when push has come to shove. New England ended San Diego’s season with playoff wins in both 2008 and 2007. Dating back to 1994, the Patriots are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS against the Chargers.

Sunday, October 24th, 4:15 PM ET: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
NFL Trends of Note
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 following an SU defeat
Denver is 7-3-1 ATS over the L/11 years in Week 7
The Broncos are just 9-23-1 ATS in their L/33 home games

Series History
The Raiders have covered six of the L/8 in this series and have found ways to win games that they have no business winning here at Mile High. Oakland captured a debilitating 20-19 victory here last season that probably effectively kept Denver out of the playoffs, and it also won 31-10 here in 2008. Ironically, the road team is 4-0 SU and ATS over the L/2 seasons, with the home team not even reaching 20 points scored in the proceedings.

Sunday, October 24th, 8:20 PM ET: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
NFL Trends of Note
The Vikes are 5-1-1 ATS in their L/7 games played in division
Minnesota is just 3-12-2 ATS in its L/17 games as underdogs of a field goal or less
The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their L/7 as favorites of a field goal or less

Series History
QB Brett Favre is back in the saddle in Green Bay, but it’s not to be captaining the ship of the Packers. He won here last year by throwing four TD passes en route to a series sweep both SU and ATS> That switches a recent trend, as the Packers were 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU in 2007 and 2008 and actually won five games in a row in this series at one point in the mid 2000s. Four straight have gone past the ‘total’ and both teams have scored at least 23 points in three straight clashes.

Monday, October 25th, 8:30 PM ET: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
NFL Trends of Note
The Giants are 12-3-1 ATS in their L/16 road games as pups of a field goal or less
New York is 20-7-1 ATS in its L/28 games played in the month of October
Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its L/7 games following an SU defeat

Series History
New York, New York, it’s a hell of a town! The Giants have won two straight and four out of five in this series both SU and ATS in spite of the fact that it has been a dog in four of those five games. The G-Men have only been held under 20 points in this series since December 2005 and don’t plan on changing that NFL trend this weekend. Dallas on the other hand, has been awfully inconsistent, as it has both been held in the 10-17 point range and scored in the 40s over the L/4 years.

NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (10/24/10)

October 23rd, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in College Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (10/24/10)
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QB Brett Favre is heading back to the city that he was once the wonder child in, as he takes his newest team, the Minnesota Vikings into Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Check out our NFL prop selections for Sunday Night Football’s huge clash!

Brett Favre Total Passing Yards Over/Under 234.5
Things are getting better and better for No. 4 in Minneapolis, especially with WR Randy Moss in the fold. We know that Favre barely reached 100 yards passing last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but this is a totally different scenario. This is back in Green Bay. On top of that, Green Bay’s front seven is going to be keying in on RB Adrian Peterson, which really could make for a huge game for the Vikings’ passing game. Favre threw for four TD passes last year when he came to Lambeau Field, and we tend to think that he will get somewhere near this number with plenty of time to spare in this one. DB Al Harris is still banged up, just as there are a number of other Packers dealing with various injuries. Go with Favre Over 234.5 passing yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Sunday Night Football.

Greg Jennings Over/Under 5 Receptions
Logic would suggest that Jennings should be flying over this five reception mark due to the fact that he is one of the only targets that QB Aaron Rodgers really has to throw to at this point. However, Jennings has only reached this point once this entire season. The bad news for us in this prop is that it happened to be last week that he got there. The good news is that the Miami Dolphins’ defense was prone to a ton of deep balls. The Vikes shouldn’t be as prone to that tremendous long ball down the field like Miami was, as this is a defense that focuses more on the pass with just four ferocious rushers in the front line. As a result, we aren’t so convinced that Jennings is going to be getting there. Go with the man from “The U” Under 5 receptions (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

James Jones Over/Under 2 Receptions
Call this more of a gut shot than anything else. Last week, Jones was thrown at three teams but didn’t end up making any receptions. He did have four catches the week before against the Washington Redskins after TE Jermichael Finley got hurt. This really has become one of the only threats that Rodgers has underneath on the inside, so if the Vikes are going to be keying in on Jennings and WR Donald Driver, this could be the man that ends up taking all of the pressure off with short to medium routes. We’ll take a shot on Jones going Over 2 Receptions (-160 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Vikings.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/18/10)

October 17th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/18/10)
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The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are two of the four teams in the AFC South that enter Week 6 at 3-2. One of these two squads will be at least tied for, if not alone in the gutter at 3-3 when this one is over, while the winner will be a game up on at least the loser. Check out what we’ve got in store for Monday Night Football free prop picks!

Chris Johnson Over/Under 113.5 Yards
So far this season, when Johnson reaches the 100 yard barrier, the Titans have gone 3-0 both SU and ATS. When he hasn’t gotten there, they are 0-2 SU and ATS. This is man on a mission on a regular basis, and it’s awfully difficult to stop him when he gets 25 carries in a game like he normally does. The Jacksonville defense does rank No. 13 against the rush at 102.9 yards per game, but they really haven’t had a game quite yet against a team like this, as all five of the teams that it has faced this year have most certainly been pass first offenses. Needless to say, we’ll take our chances that Tennessee’s game plan hasn’t suddenly changed. Go with Johnson Over 113.5 rushing yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Nate Washington Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards
We’ll start by saying this much: Washington most certainly has the capability of picking this up in just one play, so this prop is never going to be out of the question. Now, we’ll add into the equation the fact that Jacksonville ranks No. 29 of the 32 teams in the NFL, and save DB Rashean Mathis, there really isn’t a man in this secondary that we are afraid of. Washington might just need to get loose 1-2 times to be able to cash this prop. This is the favorite target of QB Vince Young, and as long as you remain patient and know that those 2-3 receptions are coming over the course of this game, you’ll be fine. Our NFL picks here? Go with Washington Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Longest Field Goal Over/Under 45.5 Yards
We’ve got two of the best field goal kickers in the game in this one, and neither HC Jack Del Rio nor HC Jeff Fisher is afraid to let him kicker boot one from 55 yards away. Heck, K Josh Scobee just booted the Jags to a win over the Indianapolis Colts with a 59 yard bomb as time expired! K Rob Bironas might have the best leg in the league as well, and he is quite often used as a weapon. Fisher knows that he can count on his kicker to pick up three points on virtually any drive that reaches the 30 yard line, and the offense won’t be afraid to get aggressive and go for TDs, knowing that those three points are virtually always in their back pockets. No doubt, one of these kickers will get a blast from at least 46 yards in this game. We’ll bet that they’ll nail it significantly more often than not as well. Go with there to be a field goal Over 45.5 Yards (+100 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Will Marcedes Lewis Score a Touchdown?
We just need to remember one thing about this prop. This isn’t an NFL pick that needs to come through even half the time to become profitable. In fact, just 40% would more than do. If that’s the case, Lewis would need to score a TD in five of his final 11 games to make this prop worthwhile. We love the fact that the big tight end out of UCLA is making a name for himself in the red zone, as he is becoming the favorite target of QB David Garrard down there. If RB Maurice Jones-Drew is having problems getting through this defensive line, particularly in short yardage situations, the play action rollout has become a real weapon, and quite often, it is Lewis on the other side. This is a very aggressive Tennessee defense, and we tend to think that at least 40% of the time, Lewis is going to find himself in at least one position in the game in which he is wide open in the end zone. Don’t be afraid to go with Lewis to Score a Touchdown (+160 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (10/17/10)

October 17th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Sunday Night Football Props (10/17/10)
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The Washington Redskins and Indianapolis Colts are getting set to lock horns on Sunday for a crucial tilt between a pair of 3-2 teams. Check out our NFL picks for the top props in this game that surely should not be missed!

Total Sacks by Both Teams Over/Under 3.5
The offensive line for the Colts this year has looked anything but flawless in spite of the fact that they have only given up five sacks on the season. The biggest problem that this team had was when DE Mario Williams was coming off of QB Peyton Manning’s weak side. Though this is a 3-4 scheme that the Redskins are running and not a 4-3, LB Brian Orakpo will be able to do the same sort of thing. We already know how strong the Indy pass rush has the ability of being, but the real difference might be the struggles of the Washington offensive line. QB Donovan McNabb has already been sacked 11 times this year, and we tend to think that that number is on the rise. There should be plenty of throwing the ball in this game, and if that’s the case, there will almost certainly be Over 3.5 sacks (+125 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Sunday Night Football.

Peyton Manning Over/Under 288.5 Passing Yards
Asking Manning to throw for at least 290 yards seems like a bit of a stretch, especially for a man that just had a relatively miserable game against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. However, we must remember that the short passing game was the only thing that was working for the Philadelphia Eagles against this Washington secondary two weeks ago, and Manning is significantly better than QB Kevin Kolb. We also remember how QB Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans dropped a whole boatload of yards on this defense, over 400 of them to be more exact. It seems as though Manning, without any trust in his rushing game, will coordinate himself to be able to end up going Over 288.5 passing yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Ryan Torain Over/Under 70.5 Rushing Yards
This is really the only hope that the Redskins have of winning this game. This will act as a bit of a hedge bet as well, as Torain is likely to end up going past this number if Manning doesn’t go past his. There just aren’t any other backs of QB Donovan McNabb to turn around and hand the ball to. Torain hasn’t really proven that he is a solid runner yet, but you know that the Colts are going to probably struggle to stop him if he gets going. The former Arizona State Sun Devil can rumble the ball a ton of times in this game, and we fully expect him to do so. Getting 20+ carries isn’t out of the question for as long as the duel stays close. We aren’t so sure, but it seems logical for a team that is allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground that Torain goes Over 70.5 Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Colts.

2010 NFL Trends: Week 6 Cheat Sheet

October 13th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on 2010 NFL Trends: Week 6 Cheat Sheet
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Week 6 of the NFL season is right around the corner! The handicapping experts of Bankroll Sports have key releases for you this weekend. Props and free picks will be available to you on our sports blog as well. However, to kick off this NFL betting week, we’re going to take a look at the most important NFL trends and matchup histories for the Week 6 NFL matchups.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 ET: Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
NFL Trends of Note
Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 road games
The Texans are 6-2-2 ATS in their L/10 against teams with a winning record
Houston is 5-2-1 ATS in its L/8 played on grass

Series History
There have only been four meetings in this series, and three of the four have belonged to the road team both SU and ATS. The last clash of these AFC squads came in 2007, and the Texans rammed KC 20-3 as three point favorites. The only time a dog covered a game in this rivalry was in 2004, a 24-21 upset for the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. The ‘totals’ have been level at two ‘overs’ and two ‘unders’ apiece.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Trends of Note
The Saints are 3-13 ATS in their L/16 against the NFC
New Orleans is 7-3-1 ATS in its L/11 played on grass
Tampa Bay is 6-1-1 ATS over the L/8 seasons in Week 6

Series History
The Saints had covered three straight in this divisional rivalry before last year’s 20-17 overtime victory for the Bucs at the Superdome which helped ruin the celebration of clinching the NFC for the hosts. The L/3 have all stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’, though at least 37 points have gone on the scoreboard in the nine meetings since the end of the 2005 campaign. Tampa Bay went 5-1 ATS from ’05 through ’07.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
NFL Trends of Note
The Fins have covered four straight games on the road
Miami is a whopping 17-4 ATS in its L/21 road games against teams with a winning home record
The Packers 9-4-1 ATS in their L/14 overall

Series History
Every four years, these teams meet to do battle since divisional realignment. The Packers have covered back to back and have won two straight SU. The Dolphins haven’t won a game at Lambeau Field since 1994. The last meeting of these teams resulted in a 34-24 win for Green Bay in South Beach. There has only been one ‘under’ game since 1997 in this series, that coming in the last visit to Lambeau in November of 2002, a 24-10 Packers victory.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: San Diego Chargers @ St. Louis Rams
NFL Trends of Note
The Chargers have covered six straight games following an ATS defeat
San Diego has gone 5-1 ATS over the L/6 years in Week 6
The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 as pups of more than a field goal but less than double digits

Series History
The home team has won every game in this series in this decade, but this is probably a bit unfair due to the fact that the Rams were really good at the start of the decade and really terrible recently. Expect to see the fireworks flying in this one, as the home team has scored a whopping average of 41.0 points per game in the L/3. All three went past the ‘total’.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
NFL Trends of Note
The Ravens are 19-7-1 ATS in their L/27 on the road as underdogs
New England is 24-11-1 ATS in its L/36 following an SU victory of at least 14 points
The Pats are 23-7-1 ATS in their L/31 games played in the month of October

Series History
These two teams have had a heck of a history, especially in the last four years or so. Last season in the playoffs, the Ravens bounced New England 33-14 at Gillette Stadium. New England won the last two battles though, taking a 27-21 decision at home and a 27-24 victory in Baltimore. That ’07 meeting was particularly notable because it was the closest that the Patriots came to losing in that undefeated regular season, as the Ravens ‘D’ found a way to shut down the New England offense that was amongst one of the best in the league’s history. Baltimore is 3-1 ATS in its L/4, but the Pats had covered the previous three spreads.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Detroit Lions @ New York Giants
NFL Trends of Note
The Lions are 7-19 ATS in their L/26 played on field turf
The G-Men are 20-6-1 ATS in their L/27 played in the month of October
New York is winless ATS in its L/4 home games against teams with losing road records

Series History
These two teams haven’t met since 2007 when the Giants took out the Lions 16-10 in the Motor City. The road team has won every meeting in this series dating back to 1990, and the Lions haven’t won a game at home against New York since well back into the 1980s. As a result, the road team is 6-0 ATS since 1994 in this series, while the underdog won five of those games outright.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
NFL Trends of Note
The Seahawks are 4-9 ATS in their L/13 against NFC teams
Chicago is 2-12 ATS over the L/14 seasons in Week 6
The Bears are 5-2 ATS in the L/7 in this series dating back to 1990

Series History
In this decade, these two teams have each won a pair of games. The most notable win came in the ’06-’07 playoffs, when the Bears captured a 27-24 overtime victory in the Windy City. Seattle was a 9.5 point underdog that day, marking what was the second time in a row that the Hawks beat the number. Chicago captured the last duel at Qwest Field 25-19 as short favorites. The L/4 have all gone beyond the ‘total’.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Trends of Note
The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their L/9 against the AFC
Cleveland is 9-2 ATS in its L/11 played in the month of October
The Steelers are 7-2 ATS over the L/9 years in Week 6

Series History
These two teams absolutely despise each other. Cleveland stuck in front of both numbers last season, including a 13-6 upset at home as 9.5 point underdogs in December in a game that helped keep the black and gold out of the playoffs. Dating back to the last meeting in 2007, the Browns are 4-1 ATS against their arch rivals. The win last year marked the first victory in five seasons for Cleveland. The ‘over’ might be 6-1-1 ATS in the L/8 clashes in the Steel City, but the ‘under’ has come in three of the L/4 times these AFC North foes have met.

Sunday, October 17th, 1:00 PM ET: Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Trends of Note
The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their L/9 overall
Philly is 2-6 ATS in its L/8 overall
The Eagles are 7-3-1 ATS over the L/11 seasons in Week 6 encounters

Series History
The Eagles have three wins in a row and seven out of eight in this series dating back to 1998. They have gone 7-2 ATS in their L/9 in this series. The favorite is 6-2 ATS over the L/8. In spite of the fact that the Eagles have averaged 24.1 points per game in this series since 2003, Atlanta’s woeful 11.4 points per game average has resulted in a 6-0-1 record for ‘under’ bettors in that stretch. This would be QB Michael Vick’s first meeting against his old team if he is able to play on Sunday.

Sunday, October 17th, 4:05 PM ET: Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers
NFL Trends of Note
The Raiders are 8-17 ATS in their L/25 road games against teams with a losing home record
Oakland is 5-16 ATS in its L/21 after an ATS victory
The Niners are 7-1-3 ATS in their L/11 after an ATS defeat

Series History
These rivals meet every single year in the preseason, but they have only met twice in the regular season when the games are for keeps in this decade. In 2002, San Fran captured a 23-20 decision, while in 2006, the Niners won 34-20 at home. San Francisco covered both spreads, while the ‘total’ has been split. The preseason meeting this year resulted in a 28-24 win for the 49ers.

Sunday, October 17th, 4:05 PM ET: New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
NFL Trends of Note
The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their L/8 road games
New York is 8-2 ATS in its L/10 games against the AFC
Denver has gone 8-2 ATS over the L/10 in this series

Series History
The Jets have never loved playing against Denver, particularly at Mile High. Yes, they have a win there in 1999, but that was the only game that they won in this series there in the last two decades. The Broncos have a postseason win there as well in this stretch, a 23-10 win in the AFC Championship Game in 1999. New York hasn’t scored more than 25 points in a game in this series since the 1980s. Five of the L/7 have stayed ‘under’ the ‘total’.

Sunday, October 17th, 4:15 PM ET: Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
NFL Trends of Note
Dallas is 2-6-2 ATS over the L/10 years in Week 6
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its L/8 against teams with a losing record
The Vikes are 6-1-1 ATS in their L/8 home games

Series History
The favorite has covered eight straight games in this series, which is a good sign for the hosts on Sunday. The most recent meeting came in the playoffs last year, a 34-3 romp for the Vikes at home. Dallas had won the previous two meetings both SU and ATS, but the Vikes owned the previous four, including a win in the 2000 playoffs. Six of the L/8 have gone past the ‘total’.

Sunday, October 17th, 8:20 PM ET: Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Redskins
NFL Trends of Note
The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their L/9 against teams with a winning record
Indy is 11-4-1 ATS in its L/16 road games
Washington is 6-1-3 ATS in its L/10 played on grass

Series History
These teams have only met seven times in the L/20 years. Washington dominated the NFL odds from 1994 to 2002, as it covered four straight against the Colts. The most recent meeting in 2006 resulted in a 36-22 win for QB Peyton Manning’s crew at the old RCA Dome. This is the first meeting of these teams in Landover since 2002, where the Colts haven’t won in well over two decades.

Monday, October 18th, 8:30 PM ET: Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Trends of Note
Tennessee is 1-10 ATS in its L/11 against teams with a winning record
The Titans are just 2-6 ATS in their L/8 against the AFC South
Jacksonville is only 2-6 ATS in its L/8 appearances on Monday Night Football

Series History
The home team is 7-3 ATS since 2005 in this series. However, only six of those games have actually been won SU. Last year, the home team took both meetings both SU and ATS with some major romps. The Titans won 30-13 at LP Field, while the Jags won 37-17 at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the previous four meetings, but all five clashes in 2005 and 2006, including the postseason tussle, went ‘over’ the ‘total’.

NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/4/10)

October 10th, 2010 by Adam Markowitz (Bankroll Sports Columnist) | Posted in NFL Football   Comments Off on NFL Football Picks: Monday Night Football Props (10/4/10)
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The New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings both have new weapons to be trying out at wide receiver this week. With both WR Randy Moss and WR Santonio Holmes in the fold for the first time, the oddsmakers might just be a step or two behind with the way that the NFL props are lined in this one. Check out our best NFL propositions for Monday Night Football props!

Will there be a score in the first 7 minutes of the game?
Don’t be shocked if Holmes and Moss try to get into the act early. We know that both of these defenses really have the ability to shine, but with so much emphasis coming on both rushing attacks, the passing games might be able to snare a cheap shot early on. Even just a 30-40 yard pass could set up a nice field goal opportunity in the first half of the first quarter. We’ll take our chances, regardless of who gets the ball first, that something special is going to happen early on to set up the first points of the game. Even though this one involves the Jets, a team that is typically impossible to bet “yes” with this prop, we have no hesitations in this one. Yes, there absolutely will be a score in the first 7:00 (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) on Monday Night Football.

Will Brett Favre throw an interception?
This is like taking candy from a baby. There are just a million reasons why Favre will get picked off in this one and virtually none saying that he won’t. For starters, Favre has already tossed six picks this year and he looks like a man that is once again going to throw 20-25 on the season. He is also facing one of the best ball hawking secondaries in the league with a healthy DB Darrelle Revis in the lineup. The pressure up front is always incredibly immense, and if RB Adrian Peterson can’t get anything going, Favre is going to be forcing balls into traffic. There’s no way that he makes it through this game without making a crucial mistake. Go with Favre to throw an interception (-240 at Hollywood Sportsbook).

Randy Moss Total Receptions Over/Under 4.5
Last week, we played this exact same prop against Moss when he was with the New England Patriots, but now, our tune is changing. The Vikings already know that an unhappy Randy Moss is a disgruntled Randy Moss. Fortunately, former HC Mike Tice’s idiotic “Randy Ratio” is gone, but the logic of “Get Randy the damn ball” is still in play. It seems like a foregone conclusion that the first play of the game will put the ball in No. 84’s hands, and we have a hard time thinking that, especially on the bright lights of Monday Night Football, that Moss isn’t coming up with a spectacular game now that he is with a team that wants him and badly needs him. It seems very likely that he goes Over 4.5 Receptions (+115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) in this battle against the Jets.

Mark Sanchez Over/Under 200.5 Passing Yards
The lack of confidence that the oddsmakers have in Sanchez in this one is a bit disturbing. HC Rex Ryan is building more and more confidence in his young signal caller with each week that he doesn’t turn the ball over like his predecessor. The front seven for Minnesota is one of the best in the NFL, and in spite of the fact that New York might try, try, and try again to force the ball on the ground through this purple defense, it probably won’t work all that much. At some point, the safeties and linebackers are going to have to be held with some play action passes, and with targets like Holmes, TE Dustin Keller, WR Braylon Edwards, and WR Jerricho Cotchery, we love “The Sanchise” and his chances on this one. Go with Sanchez Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Hollywood Sportsbook) versus the stout Minnesota front.