Every now and again, making Super Bowl picks requires doing a little bit of thinking outside of the box. The Pittsburgh Steelers know that QB Aaron Rodgers does that Championship Belt celebration on his touchdowns and during big plays over the course of the game. Hollywood Sportsbook is offering a very interesting Superbowl prop in the biggest game of the year whether or not there will be a player on the Steelers that will imitate the leader of the Green Bay Packers at any point during this game.

Let’s be real, here. There is absolutely better than a 50/50 chance that this happens at some point. The oddsmakers weren’t all that specific in this one, as all the rules state is that the celebration must clearly be shown on TV during the game or a live picture of the Super Bowl. This doesn’t mean that it has to be after a touchdown, and it can appear during any point of the duel.

Think about this for a second. LB James Harrison comes off of the edge and gets a huge sack or forces a fumble. You don’t think for one second, especially if the Steelers have already allowed a TD or if the game is getting to be out of hand that Harrison wouldn’t be the smart guy to mock Rodgers with his own celebratory move? Think again. In fact, save perhaps the relatively mild mannered Troy Polamalu, there isn’t a player on this defense that we can think of that wouldn’t at least think about doing this Championship Belt celebration at least once if he can do something that negatively affects Rodgers.

Now, let’s go to the offensive side of the ball. WR Hines Ward has never really been known as a player that has the greatest of tempers, and it is clear that he is going to be out to make enemies, not friends in this Super Bowl betting affair. If he hauls in a huge catch or scores a TD, he is a great candidate to pull off this stunt as well. QB Ben Roethlisberger has never been known to shy away from a situation like this either, and we could see him stealing it as well.

The bottom line here is that there are just too many opportunities for Pittsburgh to pounce on poor Rodgers to pass on. Someone, at some point during these three and a half hours, is going to make the move, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see that old Championship Belt flashed several times over the course of the game. We tend to think that this is a mortal lock, and it’s not often that we say that at even money.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Steeler Player to Do the Aaron Rodgers Championship Belt Celebration (+100) at Hollywood Sportsbook

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The Green Bay Packers have suddenly found their running game just in time for this great run to the Super Bowl. However, are they good enough to rush for a TD against one of the impenetrable defenses in the league this year, that of the Pittsburgh Steelers? We take a look at the Super Bowl props today for whether the Pack can get the job done on the ground or not.
Six TDs. That’s all that the Steelers have given up on the ground all season long in 18 games. Just that alone suggests that we should make our Super Bowl picks on the ‘no’, especially knowing that they are conceding right around 63 yards per game this year on the ground.

Green Bay did have 11 TDs this year on the ground and have added four more on the ground in the playoffs. From that perspective, one would think that they would have a great chance, especially at -105 Super Bowl odds, to be able to get into the end zone on the ground, even just one time.

The biggest fear that we have about betting the ‘no’ is the fact that this was a team that was remarkable on 3rd and 4th and 1 situations this year, and if the Pack get down tight near the end zone, RB John Kuhn has a very high success rate. We’re also mildly afraid of QB Aaron Rodgers taking off and running, something that has already netted 12 carries, 56 yards, and two TDs thus far in the playoffs.

However, when push comes to shove, we just don’t see it happening. RB James Starks hasn’t had a run in the playoffs of longer than 27 yards, and he certainly isn’t busting a long one against the Steelers unless there is just a total breakdown of assignments. We don’t really figure the Pack to get more than 2-3 TDs in this game in all likelihood, and the prospects of one coming on the ground just doesn’t look all that great.

Free Super Bowl Picks: No Green Bay Rushing Touchdown -125 at BetUS Sportsbook

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Sportbet.com is back with some more tremendous Superbowl props, and today at Bankroll Sports, we’re dissecting another of the weaker lines that they have to offer so you can cash in with Super Bowl picks! We’ll look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and how many completions they are going to have against the Green Bay Packers.

First off, let’s remember that this prop is for the Steelers total number of completions, not just those of QB Ben Roethlisberger. We’re protected in the event that Big Ben gets hurt, and we are also given a bonus if there is anyone else out of left field who completes a pass on a trick play. These things are key, as they always have to be considered when playing props of this sort. Roethlisberger’s completions alone could be found as high as 19.5 at some sportsbooks, making this a tremendous price.

Off to the prop itself… Roethlisberger averaged 20 completions per game in the 12 duels that he played in the regular season. He had exactly 19 completions against the Baltimore Ravens, but the number that is really scaring most away from this prop is the 10 that he had against the New York Jets. Odds have it though, that the Steelers aren’t going to be jumping out to this 24-0 lead the same way that they did against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game, meaning the offense is going to need to be more well balanced here than it was in that one. RB Rashard Mendenhall might not have the same type of success in this one as he did against the Jets when he rumbled for 121 yards. The track in this one is also going to be in great weather, as it is played in a dome, and not in the wind and winter blustery weather.

Especially if the Steelers end up falling behind at any point in this game, there is a great chance that Big Ben is going to be asked to do a little bit more than just stand there and hand the ball off to Mendenhall. Pittsburgh should complete at least 19 passes without any doubt.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Pittsburgh Over 18.5 Completions -125 at Sportbet

The Super Bowl is just a bit over a week away, but we are making our Superbowl picks for props as always on a nightly basis. Today, we look at Rashard Mendenhall, and how many carries that he will get against the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

The first thing that we have to take in consideration in this one is that Mendenhall carried the ball a whopping 371 times this year in his 18 games including the playoffs. That’s an average of 20.6 times per game. He had more than 19.5 carries nine times this year, which really should make this a 50/50 prop… right?

Wrong.

What we have to remember is that the Packers have a tremendous pass defense, and Head Coach Mike Tomlin and company know it. QB Ben Roethlisberger will have to make his plays against a ferocious bunch, and as a result, he is going to be relying on Mendenhall to take off some of the load.

Mendenhall is a horse, as he has demonstrated in the playoffs, as he has carried the ball 20 and 27 times in games against two of the toughest defenses that this league has to offer, the New York Jets and the Baltimore Ravens. Even when things aren’t going well and he is getting stuffed up at the point of attack, the Steelers continue to use him. The other critical factor is that there aren’t any running backs on this team that are stealing many of his carries, save for the short spell here and there.

The former member of the Illinois Fighting Illini also only had one run this year of longer than 38 yards, and that came way back in Week 1 of the season against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s more prone to just pounding the rock up in the hole, taking his few yards, and coming back to do it all over again.

Mendenhall will get into the 20s with ease, and he should be able to dominate this Super Bowl betting prop.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Rashard Mendenhall Over 19.5 Carries (-115) at Hollywood Sportsbook

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Our prop analysis goes from the ridiculous to the sublime here at Bankroll Sports, and for today’s free Super Bowl pick, we’re going to take a look at the first TD celebration of the game and how it will be done.

There are some absolutely hilarious options at BetUS Sportsbook, including the Funky Chicken, the old Sharpie trick, and the one that we absolutely know we would all want to see, mooning the fans.

Let’s be realistic here, though. There are probably only a few reasonable options here on the board. We’ve seen players show their biceps all the time, and we know that the dunk through the uprights is really popular to boot. The typical TD spike is always a popular one, and in this day and age, the good ol’ salute is always a classy celebration.

But honestly, we already know if it is a member of the Green Bay Packers that does the scoring of the first TD of the game, the odds have it, there is going to be a Championship Belt symbol thrown up there. Heck, it wasn’t just QB Aaron Rodgers that did it against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game. DT BJ Raji did it as well, and you know if the big man is trying to be the champ, so is everyone else on the Packers.

Here’s the thing though, from a legitimate handicapping standpoint. We know that the Pittsburgh Steelers are full of some real bad dudes, and they aren’t going to take this “championship belt” thing lightly. Though we aren’t so sure that a man like RB Rashard Mendenhall would do it, we know that a guy like a LB James Harrison or a QB Ben Roethlisberger absolutely would.

You know you want to bet on this one, so don’t even try to avoid it. The first TD celebration in Superbowl XLV betting action is going to be the signaling of the championship belt around someone’s waist.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Championship Belt Celebration +200 at BetUS Sportsbook

Super Bowl XLV Odds for First TD Celebration @ BetUS Sportsbook (as of 1/27/11):
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Touchdown Spike +200
Championship Belt +200
Round Off or Back Flip +500
Snow Angel +1000
Chicken Dance +500
Dunks Football Through the Uprights +350
Dirty Bird +500
Shows His Biceps +600
The Worm +1500
Pulls Out Cell Phone +1200
Throat Slash +500
River Dance +1200
Takes Cheerleader’s Pompoms +1500
Pulls Out Sharpie, Signs Football +1500
Moons Fans +2000
Quiets the Crowd +500
Military Salute +700
The Squirrel +1200
Funky Chicken +1500
Lambeau Leap +200
The Shuffle +1500
Fun Bunch +1500

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We aren’t just keying in on the simple props like passing yards and rushing yards here at Bankroll Sports. For the biggest game of the year, we are leaving no stone unturned for our Super Bowl picks! Today, our free Super Bowl pick of the day revolves around the punters and whether there will be a ball booted into the end zone for a touchback over the course of the game.

For the most part, logic tells you that you that this is a no brainer. It feels like there is a touchback in every game, but in all actuality, the sportsbooks are really trying to trick you into thinking this, and they hope that you back the “yes,” only to find that you’ll be greatly disappointed in the end.

However, it’s not just that simple. Green Bay Packers P Tim Masthay did end up booming one into the end zone last week, probably because he was really worried about WR Devin Hester getting his hands on the pigskin for the Chicago Bears. In fact, two of the six touchbacks that Masthay has in his 18 games this year came because of Hester and the Bears. He really doesn’t have all that much to worry about with the Steelers, as there isn’t a player standing back that could take punts in this one that is known as that explosive of a player that could return for to the house at a moment’s notice.

The punter that we are worried about screwing this up for us is Jeremy Kapinos. He had a touchback in the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Baltimore Ravens, and in seven games this season, he had four touchbacks. Still, the Steelers quite often will let the ball stay in QB Ben Roethlisberger’s hands when they are close enough to go for it on 4th down to avoid punting, which could play right into our hands in this prop.

Between Kapinos and Masthay, they had 25 games and 11 punts between them. This theoretically should be about a 50/50 proposition, and considering we are getting +120 odds, we’ll gladly jump at them.

Free Super Bowl Picks: No Touchback in the Game +120 at Oddsmaker Sportsbook

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Here at Bankroll Sports, we are continuing our analysis of the Super Bowl XLV odds with our first look at our Free Superbowl Prop Picks. The very first one of these props that we are going to take a look at is the man that is going to score the first touchdown of the game.

Logic tells you that Pittsburgh Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall should be the selection in this one, as he has three of the Steelers’ TDs in these playoffs, and when they get down close to the goal line, Mendenhall is the man getting the pigskin. However, we’re going to head down the board just a tad to the second favorite to beat the Super Bowl betting lines.

Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings was the leader on the team in the regular season with a dozen TDs on the year, and QB Aaron Rodgers usually loves to do what he can to get Jennings the ball early and often. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found his way into the end zone yet in the playoffs, but it feels like he is the only one that hasn’t for this team. Jennings was clearly vocal after the NFC Wild Card game in which he had just one reception against the Philadelphia Eagles, as he has eight grabs in both of the last two duels. We’re getting some great odds here on Jennings to be the first touchdown scorer in this game at 6.50 to 1, and we are going to cash in on this one for sure.

Free Super Bowl Prop Picks: Greg Jennings to Score the First Touchdown +650

Super Bowl Prop Odds: First Touchdown Scorer @ Sportbet Sportsbook (as of 1/24/11):
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Rashard Mendenhall +450
Greg Jennings +650
Mike Wallace +650
James Starks +950
Hines Ward +1000
James Jones +1000
Donald Driver +1200
Heath Miller +1200
John Kuhn +1200
Aaron Rodgers +1600
Emmanuel Sanders +1600
Jordy Nelson +1600
Ben Roethlisberger +2000
Antonio Brown +2000
Isaac Redman +3300
Brandon Jackson +3300
Mewelde Moore +3300
Andrew Quarless +3300
Tom Crabtree +3300
Matt Spaeth +4000
No TD Scored in Game +5000