The Super Bowl is just a bit over a week away, but we are making our Superbowl picks for props as always on a nightly basis. Today, we look at Rashard Mendenhall, and how many carries that he will get against the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

The first thing that we have to take in consideration in this one is that Mendenhall carried the ball a whopping 371 times this year in his 18 games including the playoffs. That’s an average of 20.6 times per game. He had more than 19.5 carries nine times this year, which really should make this a 50/50 prop… right?

Wrong.

What we have to remember is that the Packers have a tremendous pass defense, and Head Coach Mike Tomlin and company know it. QB Ben Roethlisberger will have to make his plays against a ferocious bunch, and as a result, he is going to be relying on Mendenhall to take off some of the load.

Mendenhall is a horse, as he has demonstrated in the playoffs, as he has carried the ball 20 and 27 times in games against two of the toughest defenses that this league has to offer, the New York Jets and the Baltimore Ravens. Even when things aren’t going well and he is getting stuffed up at the point of attack, the Steelers continue to use him. The other critical factor is that there aren’t any running backs on this team that are stealing many of his carries, save for the short spell here and there.

The former member of the Illinois Fighting Illini also only had one run this year of longer than 38 yards, and that came way back in Week 1 of the season against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s more prone to just pounding the rock up in the hole, taking his few yards, and coming back to do it all over again.

Mendenhall will get into the 20s with ease, and he should be able to dominate this Super Bowl betting prop.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Rashard Mendenhall Over 19.5 Carries (-115) at Hollywood Sportsbook

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Our prop analysis goes from the ridiculous to the sublime here at Bankroll Sports, and for today’s free Super Bowl pick, we’re going to take a look at the first TD celebration of the game and how it will be done.

There are some absolutely hilarious options at BetUS Sportsbook, including the Funky Chicken, the old Sharpie trick, and the one that we absolutely know we would all want to see, mooning the fans.

Let’s be realistic here, though. There are probably only a few reasonable options here on the board. We’ve seen players show their biceps all the time, and we know that the dunk through the uprights is really popular to boot. The typical TD spike is always a popular one, and in this day and age, the good ol’ salute is always a classy celebration.

But honestly, we already know if it is a member of the Green Bay Packers that does the scoring of the first TD of the game, the odds have it, there is going to be a Championship Belt symbol thrown up there. Heck, it wasn’t just QB Aaron Rodgers that did it against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game. DT BJ Raji did it as well, and you know if the big man is trying to be the champ, so is everyone else on the Packers.

Here’s the thing though, from a legitimate handicapping standpoint. We know that the Pittsburgh Steelers are full of some real bad dudes, and they aren’t going to take this “championship belt” thing lightly. Though we aren’t so sure that a man like RB Rashard Mendenhall would do it, we know that a guy like a LB James Harrison or a QB Ben Roethlisberger absolutely would.

You know you want to bet on this one, so don’t even try to avoid it. The first TD celebration in Superbowl XLV betting action is going to be the signaling of the championship belt around someone’s waist.

Free Super Bowl Picks: Championship Belt Celebration +200 at BetUS Sportsbook

Super Bowl XLV Odds for First TD Celebration @ BetUS Sportsbook (as of 1/27/11):
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Touchdown Spike +200
Championship Belt +200
Round Off or Back Flip +500
Snow Angel +1000
Chicken Dance +500
Dunks Football Through the Uprights +350
Dirty Bird +500
Shows His Biceps +600
The Worm +1500
Pulls Out Cell Phone +1200
Throat Slash +500
River Dance +1200
Takes Cheerleader’s Pompoms +1500
Pulls Out Sharpie, Signs Football +1500
Moons Fans +2000
Quiets the Crowd +500
Military Salute +700
The Squirrel +1200
Funky Chicken +1500
Lambeau Leap +200
The Shuffle +1500
Fun Bunch +1500

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We aren’t just keying in on the simple props like passing yards and rushing yards here at Bankroll Sports. For the biggest game of the year, we are leaving no stone unturned for our Super Bowl picks! Today, our free Super Bowl pick of the day revolves around the punters and whether there will be a ball booted into the end zone for a touchback over the course of the game.

For the most part, logic tells you that you that this is a no brainer. It feels like there is a touchback in every game, but in all actuality, the sportsbooks are really trying to trick you into thinking this, and they hope that you back the “yes,” only to find that you’ll be greatly disappointed in the end.

However, it’s not just that simple. Green Bay Packers P Tim Masthay did end up booming one into the end zone last week, probably because he was really worried about WR Devin Hester getting his hands on the pigskin for the Chicago Bears. In fact, two of the six touchbacks that Masthay has in his 18 games this year came because of Hester and the Bears. He really doesn’t have all that much to worry about with the Steelers, as there isn’t a player standing back that could take punts in this one that is known as that explosive of a player that could return for to the house at a moment’s notice.

The punter that we are worried about screwing this up for us is Jeremy Kapinos. He had a touchback in the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Baltimore Ravens, and in seven games this season, he had four touchbacks. Still, the Steelers quite often will let the ball stay in QB Ben Roethlisberger’s hands when they are close enough to go for it on 4th down to avoid punting, which could play right into our hands in this prop.

Between Kapinos and Masthay, they had 25 games and 11 punts between them. This theoretically should be about a 50/50 proposition, and considering we are getting +120 odds, we’ll gladly jump at them.

Free Super Bowl Picks: No Touchback in the Game +120 at Oddsmaker Sportsbook

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Here at Bankroll Sports, we are continuing our analysis of the Super Bowl XLV odds with our first look at our Free Superbowl Prop Picks. The very first one of these props that we are going to take a look at is the man that is going to score the first touchdown of the game.

Logic tells you that Pittsburgh Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall should be the selection in this one, as he has three of the Steelers’ TDs in these playoffs, and when they get down close to the goal line, Mendenhall is the man getting the pigskin. However, we’re going to head down the board just a tad to the second favorite to beat the Super Bowl betting lines.

Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings was the leader on the team in the regular season with a dozen TDs on the year, and QB Aaron Rodgers usually loves to do what he can to get Jennings the ball early and often. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found his way into the end zone yet in the playoffs, but it feels like he is the only one that hasn’t for this team. Jennings was clearly vocal after the NFC Wild Card game in which he had just one reception against the Philadelphia Eagles, as he has eight grabs in both of the last two duels. We’re getting some great odds here on Jennings to be the first touchdown scorer in this game at 6.50 to 1, and we are going to cash in on this one for sure.

Free Super Bowl Prop Picks: Greg Jennings to Score the First Touchdown +650

Super Bowl Prop Odds: First Touchdown Scorer @ Sportbet Sportsbook (as of 1/24/11):
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Rashard Mendenhall +450
Greg Jennings +650
Mike Wallace +650
James Starks +950
Hines Ward +1000
James Jones +1000
Donald Driver +1200
Heath Miller +1200
John Kuhn +1200
Aaron Rodgers +1600
Emmanuel Sanders +1600
Jordy Nelson +1600
Ben Roethlisberger +2000
Antonio Brown +2000
Isaac Redman +3300
Brandon Jackson +3300
Mewelde Moore +3300
Andrew Quarless +3300
Tom Crabtree +3300
Matt Spaeth +4000
No TD Scored in Game +5000

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All season long, the NFL has been chock full of high scoring affairs. In fact, this season alone, there have been 147 ‘over’ contests against 114 ‘under’ games with some pushes mixed in, meaning if you bet on the ‘over’ in every single duel, you cashed in 56.3 percent of the time. Will this continue to be the case on the Super Bowl XLV odds, or will we revert back to a lower scoring duel? Check out these three keys that are going to probably be the decisive factors in whether this one goes over or under the posted 46.

Key #1: James Starks needs to keep control of the clock
We’ve already talked about the importance of Starks in the Super Bowl for the Packers to beat the Superbowl XLV odds, but he is going to be very instrumental in the ‘total’ as well. Green Bay has to want to keep feeding him the football to keep this clock moving on a regular basis. It seems to go without saying that the more runs there are in a game, the fewer plays that there are, thus the fewer opportunities there are for points. The good news with Starks for those looking to back the ‘under’ is that he really isn’t all that much of a home run threat. If he’s going to move the ball 60s yards on you, he’s going to do it in 10-12 carries, not just in one pop. As we know, this probably isn’t going to work against the Pittsburgh front seven though, so in a bit of an ironic twist, if you back the ‘over’ on the Super Bowl betting lines, you’re probably more interested in Starks not getting his act together.

Super Bowl XLV Odds at BetUS Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under (Total) 46
Click Here to Bet on Your Super Bowl Picks!

Key #2: Teams need to avoid careless mistakes
This is what has really been killing anyone that has backed the ‘under’ in a Pittsburgh game in the playoffs. Dumb, dumb, dumb mistakes. Remember in the duel against the Baltimore Ravens… The visitors picked up 17 points off of a punt return that came all the way back inside field goal range, a 35 yard pass interference penalty, and a fumble out of QB Ben Roethlisberger’s hands that was scooped up and returned for a TD. Green Bay hasn’t been all that swift of late either, as QB Aaron Rodgers coughed the ball up in enemy territory against the Chicago Bears. Of course, we know the importance of flags as well, and the good news is that these teams are very disciplined. There shouldn’t be too many drives that get down to the opposing 30 yard line, only to end in a punt because of a holding penalty or a false start call. However, you must remember that there is going to be rust on both sides, and both defenses are good enough to not just take points away from enemies, but to directly parlays those into TDs, just as both teams did on Championship Game Sunday.

Key #3: Special teams and trick plays will be key
Neither the Steelers nor the Packers really excelled this year in the kick and punt return department, which is really a surprise for two teams that are duking it out to beat the Super Bowl XLV lines. However, we know that both teams are capable of pulling off some big plays, especially via some creativity, especially the Steelers. It was only six years ago that they pulled off the wide receiver pass from WR Antwaan Randle El to WR Hines Ward to help beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and they have enough talented players that can run, catch, and throw to make the Packers shake in their boots. Remember the onside kick that the New Orleans Saints pulled off in last year’s Super Bowl? Gimmicks like that are becoming more and more popular, especially with teams having two weeks to prepare for this game. You can bet that there are going to be at least three or four really tricky plays that are tried out for the first, and probably the only time on February 6th, and when they happen, you if back the ‘over’, you hope they work, and if you are relying on the ‘under’, you hope that they fail and fail miserably.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers are already getting set to do battle in the Lone Star State, and in order for you to make your Superbowl XLV picks, we have the three biggest keys to the game that you must remember that will probably determine the outcome of the game.

Key #1: The Steelers have to use experience to their advantage
When you look at the roster for the Steelers, you see a whole slew of men that have already won rings titles, many of which have helped Pittsburgh to two victories over the Super Bowl odds in their tenures wearing black and gold. QB Ben Roethlisberger, the heart and soul of this team, is arguably the most important player on the field, and he not only figured out how to do it as a young buck, who just relied on his defense and handed the ball off a ton, but he also did it in a shootout against a two-time Super Bowl MVP in QB Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals just three Super Bowls ago. There aren’t all that many coaches left in the league that can flash a Super Bowl ring in their locker room, but Head Coach Mike Tomlin is certainly one of them. He was the youngest head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and the youngest to ever win it, and now, he is the youngest to bring a team to the pinnacle of the NFL twice in his career. When the Steelers won their first title in this run with a very young team, Head Coach Bill Cowher had already coached in the Super Bowl once before, and he was able to use that experience to get through to his younger players. Unfortunately for Head Coach Mike McCarthy, he really doesn’t have that to rely on. Sure, DB Charles Woodson played in Super Bowl XXXVII with the Oakland Raiders, and DT Ryan Pickett did so in Super Bowl XXXVI with the St. Louis Rams, but aside from that, there isn’t a single player on this team that knows what it’s like to play in the biggest game of the season. Pittsburgh really needs to exploit that advantage to beat the Superbowl lines on February 6th.

Super Bowl XLV Odds at JustBet
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under 46
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Key #2: The Packers need to figure out how to get into the face of Ben Roethlisberger
This is what the New York Jets had success with… sometimes. When Roethlisberger was kept in the pocket in the AFC Championship Game, he frequently made some mistakes. The pressure can really come from the outside, where Pittsburgh is very weak at the offensive tackle position, and this is a great thing for LB Clay Matthews, as these are the men that he is going to be going against. It’s when Big Ben breaks containment that things start to get hairy for the opponents. There might not be a signal caller that is better at escaping trouble and making something out of nothing than Roethlisberger in the entire league, and again, we have to stress the fact that he has really done it at every stage of the game in his career. Green Bay already has six INTs and 10 sacks so far in three playoff games this year. It really needs to make sure that Roethlisberger has hands in his face at all times and that he just doesn’t get to the outside, or these corners, no matter how great they are, just don’t stand a chance to win against guys like WR Mike Wallace, WR Antwaan Randle El, and WR Hines Ward.

Key #3: James Starks has to keep the Pittsburgh defense honest
We can be realistic when we say that Starks isn’t going to rush for 100 yards against the Pittsburgh defense in the Super Bowl, and we’re fairly sure that if he does, the Packers are going to be the champs and will beat the Super Bowl betting lines. However, the role that Starks has played, even though he has only averaged 3.76 yards per carry in the playoffs, is that he is taking some of the pressure off of QB Aaron Rodgers. Where this rookie from Buffalo has been all season long is beyond us, but he is clearly the best running back option that the Pack have had all season since losing RB Ryan Grant to a season ending ankle injury in Week 1. Starks, along with RB Brandon Jackson and RB John Kuhn, have to be able to keep Green Bay in front of the down and distance in this game. Punting is okay, but forcing Rodgers into situations in which he has to pick up third and long on a regular basis is going to create mistakes. The Steelers can overcome blunders every now and again. Odds have it, Green Bay won’t be able to. If Starks can’t at least get something going though, there is just going to be too much pressure on Rodgers, and he is going to be in for a very long game against a defense that just loves to make you one dimensional.