The 2013 NCAA Tournament continues on Friday night in the Midwest Region, where the Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans are going to renew what has become a very important rivalry over the course of the last few years. Head Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans are the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region, and they are lined in what basically is a pick ’em game against the No. 2 seeded Blue Devils, who have to still feel slighted over the fact that they aren’t on the top line in the dance.

March Madness: Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils
Michigan State vs. Duke Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Michigan State vs. Duke Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 9:45 p.m. ET
March Madness Television Coverage: CBS

Key #1: Ryan Kelly needs to make his first legitimate appearance of the tourney
It’s clear that when the Blue Devils are at their best, Ryan Kelly is at his best as well. This is a man that is going to be a matchup nightmare for the significantly less athletic Spartans to try to handle if he gets going. Kelly is every bit of 6’11”, and he can step back from the outside and knock down some big time shots. However, Kelly has gone four straight games now, scoring a total of just 25 points in those outings, and that’s just not good enough at this level for a team that is expected to challenge for a spot in the Final Four this week. If Kelly is hitting his shots, either F Adreian Payne or F Derrick Nix is going to have to step out and try to guard him on the perimeter, and if that turns out to be the case, the battle on the glass is going to be won by the Dookies in easy form. Kelly really didn’t have to exist against Albany or Creighton because those teams weren’t going to challenge F Mason Plumlee on the glass anyway, but if Kelly can’t step back and draw a defender away from the basket, Plumlee could have some problems.

Michigan State vs. Duke Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
#3 Michigan State Spartans +2
#2 Duke Blue Devils -2
Over/Under 134.5
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Key #2: Keith Appling’s shoulder had better be good to go
The Spartans have put together two very impressive games here in the dance, but there is a big, big difference between playing against Memphis, playing against Valpo, and playing against Duke. The Blue Devils have legitimate NBA-type talent from one to five in this lineup, and there is no doubt that they are going to be in it for the full 40 minutes. That means that the Spartans have to be playing at full strength as well, and that might be a tad difficult. Appling hurt his shoulder in the win over Memphis on Saturday, and he ended that game with just two points, two assists, and a rebound. Granted, others like G Gary Harris were able to pick up the slack at that point for Sparty, but we just don’t know if there is enough talent here on this team to come up with a big time effort against the Blue Devils to carry the load for a player that might be carrying an injury.

Key #3: The Dookies have to be ready to get down and dirty
The one thing about the ACC this season is that there really weren’t a lot of teams that willingly played the knock down, drag out games that the NCAA Tournament is known for. This is where we are going to learn a heck of a lot about Duke and its prospects of not just winning this game, but its chances of winning the whole enchilada as well. When you really look at the games that the Blue Devils played this year, they really weren’t forced into a lot of half-court type of games. The Virginia Cavaliers did it to the Dookies in Charlottesville, and the hosts won that game 73-68. Duke does have a win over the Ohio State Buckeyes to its credit as well from back in November of the same caliber, but that game was a long time ago, and obviously, OSU is a heck of a lot better now than it was before. However, with so many great teams that could play some big time defense left in the dance, the Blue Devils are going to need to prove that they can play this gritty type of game if they are going to win and be successful.

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Either a team that came out of the First Four or one that has made a magical run from the Missouri Valley Conference will find their way to the Elite Eight on Thursday night, as we make our March Madness predictions for the clash between the La Salle Explorers and the Wichita State Shockers.

March Madness: La Salle Explorers vs. Wichita State Shockers
La Salle vs. Wichita State Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
La Salle vs. Wichita State Date/Time: Thursday, March 28th, 10:17 p.m. ET
March Madness Television Coverage: TBS

Key #1: Wichita State has to continue to be a strong three-point shooting team
Remember when the VCU Rams ran from the First Four to the Final Four two seasons ago? It’s not out of the question that La Salle could do the same this year, but the run seems very similar for Wichita State as well. That VCU team was a relatively average three-point shooting team that caught fire in the dance and started literally knocking down everything left and right. Now, the Shockers are doing the exact same thing. Wichita State hit 50% of its threes on Saturday when it knocked off the top seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs, and that’s a far cry from the 33.7 percent from three-point land that the team has hit for the season. This time of year, it’s all about the 3-ball, and knocking them down at that rate is clearly going to be one of the keys to get this team into the Elite Eight, and perhaps even the Final Four beyond. If the threes aren’t falling at that type of clip though, the Shockers are going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble against a very athletic team.

La Salle vs. Wichita State Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
#13 La Salle Explorers +4
#9 Wichita State Shockers -4
Over/Under 135.5
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Key #2: Someone needs to figure out how to stop Ramon Galloway
Had we looked at the keys to the game for La Salle last round against the Ole Miss Rebels, we would have said that someone needed to slow down G Marshall Henderson. Instead of doing that though, Galloway just stayed shot for shot with him for the full 40 minutes. Galloway really looks a heck of a lot like Henderson did for the Rebels for all of those games, as now, the La Salle leader is averaging 21.3 points per game in the dance in this, his senior season. With nearly 1,600 points in his collegiate career, there is no doubt that Galloway is a man that knows how to take over a game, and after hitting six threes on Sunday against Ole Miss, he can really flex his muscles as one of the best players in the tournament in this one against Wichita State.

Key #3: Wichita State can’t get killed on the offensive glass
Rebounding hasn’t been an issue for the Shockers all year long, but all of a sudden against Gonzaga on Saturday, all of that changed. Wichita State gave up a whopping 20 offensive rebounds to the Zags, the most that it had allowed in a game all season long. That isn’t going to cut it, needless to say. La Salle is actually a terrible rebounding team, as it is one of the few teams in the tourney that has allowed more rebounds per game this season (31.5) than it has picked up (31.3). The Explorers don’t have F Elias Harris or F Kelly Olynyk or any of the other bigs that Gonzaga brings to the table, so this should be a much different type of challenge for a team that is used to physically overwhelming its foes. If the Shockers can’t win the battle on the glass, particularly the battle on the defensive side of the court, they’ll be in a ton of trouble. Possessions absolutely have to be limited to one and done as much as possible for Wichita State to knock off La Salle.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Thursday, March 28th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #3 Marquette Golden Eagles and the #2 Miami Hurricanes go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes
Marquette vs. Miami Location: Verizon Center, Washington DC
Marquette vs. Miami Date/Time: Thursday, March 28th, 7:15 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: CBS

Key #1: Someone aside from Vander Blue has to step up for the Golden Eagles
Marquette seems like it is a team that has nine lives right now. The squad was down and out in the first round of the dance against the Davidson Wildcats, and it was F Vander Blue that hit the shot that ended up keeping the team alive for another day. Blue came up in a big time way again in the third round for the Golden Eagles against the Butler Bulldogs, scoring 29 points against a tremendously stingy defense. However, against Miami, someone aside from just Blue is going to have to bring something to the table to advance. The rest of the team is only averaging 14.5 field goals per game here in the NCAA Tournament, and the club is shooting just .354 from the field. That really isn’t going to come closing to cutting it. This really isn’t a team that hits all that many shots from the outside either. Blue has five three-point shots made in two games. The rest of the Golden Eagles have just four for the tournament. Whether it be F Davante Gardner, F Jamil Wilson, G Junior Cadougan, or any of the other Golden Eagles, someone is going to have to step up and help out Blue if they are going to beat the best team that they have faced in this tournament to date.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#3 Marquette Golden Eagles +5.5
#2 Miami Hurricanes +5.5
Over/Under 127
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Key #2: The Hurricanes need to take advantage of a smaller Marquette front line
Miami has a huge edge against most teams in terms of their size and their depth on the inside. The combination of C Reggie Johnson, F Julian Gamble, and F Kenny Kadji should be able to rip down at least 20 boards virtually every single night, especially against teams that are just far too small to keep up with them. Update: Johnson is out of the lineup for the Hurricanes with a knee injury. However, the Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that doesn’t have a single rebounder averaging five boards per game this year, actually outrebounded the Hurricanes 36-33 on Sunday in the Round of 32, and that isn’t going to cut it in this one. Miami would have probably been beaten in that game if not for the fact that G Brandon Paul and G DJ Richardson combined to shoot just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc. The key is going to have to be on the glass here against Marquette. These Golden Eagles are undersized, and there isn’t a big time rebounder on the team. There is no excuse whatsoever for the Canes to not win the battle on the boards, and if they don’t, they could be knocked out of this tournament.

Key #3: Buzz Williams has to do a good job managing the game
Head Coach Buzz Williams is truly a tremendously underrated coach. This is a man that took a Marquette team that was picked to finish in the middle of the Big East this season and made it the regular season co-champs and ultimately a No. 3 seed in the dance. We know that Williams pushed a lot of the right buttons down the stretch in both of the first two games of this tournament, and we know that he is going to have to push the right ones again in this one. Miami has the superior athleticism, and as a result, it is going to make its runs. The question is going to be how Marquette handles those runs. Timeout usage is going to be key for the full 40 minutes, as will substitution patterns. The Hurricanes can handle any style that Marquette will throw their way, and Williams is going to have to mix it up, find the right combination of guys, and ultimately take advantage of whatever opportunities the Hurricanes give him if there is any hope of getting into the Elite Eight.

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The 2013 NCAA Tournament continues on Thursday night from the East Region, where the top seeded Indiana Hoosiers are going to hope to take care of one of the upstarts of this tournament, the Syracuse Orange in a building that the Big East reps have historically played relatively well in, the Verizon Center in Washington DC.

March Madness: Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Syracuse vs. Indiana Location: Verizon Center, Washington DC
Syracuse vs. Indiana Date/Time: Thursday, March 28th, 9:45 p.m. ET
March Madness Television Coverage: CBS

Key #1: The Orange have to continue to attack and get to the foul line
The uglier the Orange can make this game, the better shape that they are going to be in. Their run in the Big East Tournament to the finale of the event and the fact that they are here in the Sweet 16 can be attributed to the fact that they are attacking the basket from all over the court, and they are doing so both in transition and in the half-court game. In the first two rounds of this tourney, Syracuse has taken a total of 72 free throws, more than any team in the dance, and it has forced opponents to take a whopping 23.0 personal fouls per game. The Hoosiers are a solid team, and they don’t often get into foul trouble, but if they do, they, just like any other solid team in America, could really be tested with their depth issues. If Syracuse doesn’t get to the line at least 20 times in this game, we don’t think that it is going to have the horses to be able to keep up with one of the best teams in America.

Syracuse vs. Indiana Odds at Diamond Sportsbook
#4 Syracuse Orange +5.5
#1 Indiana Hoosiers -5.5
Over/Under 136
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Key #2: The Hoosiers have to keep the basketball moving against the 2-3 zone
The key to beating the 2-3 zone is good, crisp passing to keep everyone moving. If the Hoosiers throw it around like they did against the Temple Owls last week in the Round of 32 though, they could ultimately be in a boatload of trouble. Indiana only had nine assists on 19 made field goals in that game, and it turned the ball over 12 times. That ratio has to at least be flipped for this to be a successful offensive effort as well. We know that IU has a ton of players that can pick up a half dozen assists on any given night, as we saw it night in and night out in the Big Ten campaign against some of the best defenses in America. However, we also saw this unit really struggle against Temple over the weekend, and there were just too many sloppy possessions and too much time spent dribbling and holding onto the basketball. If that’s how Thursday night plays out, the top seed in the East is going to be in a lot of trouble, because the Orange are going to be all over the place defensively in the half-court.

Key #3: The time is here for James Southerland to come alive
It’s tough to admit if you’re a Syracuse fan, but your Orange aren’t the more talented team on the court. Don’t feel bad though, as the Hoosiers might be the most talented team in America this season. The great equalizer to that talent though, is the ability to shoot the ball from long range. There aren’t many that are truly proficient at this for the Orange, but Southerland is the man that really could be the one to turn the tide. Thus far in this tournament though, the embattled senior only has three triples, and he’s going to need at least that many this time around in all likelihood for Syracuse to live another day. Southerland knocked down 79 threes this year, and he has shot a whopping 40.3 percent from long range. When the ball comes his way, he’s going to have to rip it, grip it, and score it. That’s the best opportunity for Syracuse to get points in bunches, and as we have seen several times before, regardless of the foe, Southerland has the ability to be a real game changer all by himself.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Thursday, March 28th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Arizona Wildcats and the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Arizona vs. Ohio State Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
Arizona vs. Ohio State Date/Time: Thursday, March 28th, 7:47 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: Arizona has to continue to do a great job of defending the perimeter
The Wildcats have really done well on the outside in this tournament, and they have done so against some teams that really can stroke the three-ball. New Mexico had no answer for the three-point shooting that Harvard brought to the table, while most were under the impression that Belmont was going to go all Florida Gulf Coast on the Wildcats. Instead, the two teams were held to just 13 three-point makes between them, and in this day and age in the NCAA Tournament against mid-majors, that’s not all that bad. Ohio State isn’t going to jack up nearly as many threes as the Crimson or the Bruins, but when it does shoot it from the outside, it does so with purpose. Arizona has to find a way to make sure that G Aaron Craft and all of those perimeter players stay quiet, because if they don’t and the Bucks get going, this game is going to be said and done with.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#6 Arizona Wildcats +3.5
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5
Over/Under 134
Click Here to Bet Your Sweet 16 Picks!

Key #2: Deshaun Thomas has to remain a consistent star
For as good as the Big Ten was this season, there aren’t many players that are nearly as good as Thomas is. He’s big, he’s lanky, he’s quick, and he can shoot the ball from anywhere in the gym. He also is insanely consistent in his ways, and he rarely leaves games for more than a blow. He only sat out two minutes against Iowa State, and he has played at least 34 minutes in all but one game since January 26th. More importantly, he feels like he is good for at least 16 points every single night. In fact, in actuality, that’s precisely what he does. Thomas has put up at least 16 points in seven straight games and at least 14 points in every single game that he has played since that January 26th game against Penn State. If Thomas continues at this pace, he’ll be in great shape going forward. However, when he is on a drought, this whole offense seems to be out of whack, so Head Coach Thad Matta knows that he needs to get Thomas’ best game on Thursday to ensure taking care of the Wildcats.

Key #3: Ohio State has to stay on the gas pedal
How much longer can the Buckeyes really keep this pace up? That’s a real question that we have at the moment. Ohio State had to play three games in three days at the Big Ten Tournament two weeks ago, and last week, it had to play at a wicked pace against both Iona and Iowa State in a span of just a few days. We had a sense that perhaps the Buckeyes were getting tired at the end of that game against the Cyclones, and that’s perhaps why a double-digit lead was squandered late in the game, setting up Craft for his heroics. Did the week off really give the Bucks enough time to recover from such a brutal stretch? Playing Arizona isn’t going to make life any easier for sure, and the pace of this game is going to be kept down as a result. OSU doesn’t want to play this game into the 70s like Arizona will want to, and though there is no doubt that both teams can win at the other’s pace, we know that it is more important for the Buckeyes to use their energy on the defensive end of the court instead of having to run up and down with 60-70 possessions each.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Friday, March 29th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and the #2 Florida Gators go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida Location: Dallas Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 9:57 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: Florida needs to have used its few days off wisely
There’s no such thing as overlooking a team at this point in the dance. It’s clear to see what happened in the case of Florida Gulf Coast in the first week of the tournament. Georgetown, a perennially underachieving team in the NCAA Tournament, just didn’t seem to care all that much about what the Eagles were doing on the court, especially in the second half. San Diego State probably spent most of the week leading up to the dance focusing in on what Oklahoma and then Georgetown could bring to the table. Now though, comes the hard part for FGCU. Can the team really ultimately figure out how to beat the Gators? Florida is going to have two more big time games to watch that the Eagles played, and it is going to have had a full four days to look at tape and prepare to take on this exciting bunch. As long as Florida isn’t caught napping, something that we don’t suspect to see happen, the orange and blue should be on their way to the Elite Eight without all that much in the way of hassles.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +13
#3 Florida Gators -13
Over/Under 135
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Key #2: The Eagles have to continue to believe that they belong here
This really is the point in the tourney when a lot of the much smaller schools start to bow out of the NCAA Tournament. Cinderella has a nice run into the second week of the dance, but after that, the clock strikes midnight, the chariot turns into a pumpkin, and that’s the end of the whole glass slipper story. Still, so many of these underdog teams feel like they are just happy to be in the moment. Granted, we know that the Eagles are out there having the most fun of any of the 16 teams that are left in the field, and if they were beaten by 60 on Friday night, they’ll still leave Dallas with their heads held high. However, this is where we are going to see whether Head Coach Andy Enfield and his gang are really ready for the big time or not. The cameras have been on lowly little Florida Gulf Coast for a full week, and there is no doubt that this is the biggest thing that ever hit this campus. Will FGCU act like it belongs here and challenge the Gators the same way that it challenged San Diego State and Georgetown? That’s the question that badly needs to be answered.

Key #3: The Gators have to put this game away with their defense
Regardless as to whether or not Florida Gulf Coast truly is a team that is worthy of being in the Sweet 16 or not, we do know one thing from that first week of the tourney. We know that this team can run, and we know that it can score. Not just anyone can score 78 on Georgetown and 81 against San Diego State. Those were two very strong defensive teams. The Gators though, have a tendency to be in a different league from that standpoint. This is a very athletic team and is one that has the guards that should be able to slow down G Brett Comer and the gang. A lot has been made of the running style that the Eagles deploy, and we have seen those hammer ally-oop dunks over and over again over the course of the few days. F Erik Murphy is going to stay at home though, and he isn’t going to get lured out of position by all of the ball movement and the speed of the game. Simply put, Florida has to slow this thing down, take the air out of the basketball, and force the game into half-court set after half-court set. It’s not flashy, but it’s not dangerous either, and as we have seen, it’s when FGCU starts getting flashy that it is really getting the crowd into the game.

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Our 2013 NCAA Tournament predictions continue on Friday, March 29th with the Sweet 16. Join us as the #6 Michigan Wolverines and the #2 Kansas Jayhawks go to war in what should be a remarkable opening game of the fourth round of the NCAA Tournament.

March Madness: Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Michigan vs. Kansas Location: Dallas Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Michigan vs. Kansas Date/Time: Friday, March 29th, 7:37 p.m. (ET)
2013 March Madness On TV: TBS

Key #1: The Wolverines need to contain Jeff Withey
Get used to hearing this for the rest of the tournament for as long as the Jayhawks are in it. At an imposing seven-feet tall, Withey has the type of size that just doesn’t exist in college basketball. He never strays all that far away from the basket, even if his man tries to get him outside. The problem with having a smaller man on him that could at least get him outside of the paint is that someone has to defend him on the other side of the court. That’s the big problem that Big Blue needs to avoid. Withey put up 16 points, 16 boards, and five blocks against an undersized North Carolina outfit the last time out, and there really isn’t going to be much of an answer for him in the Michigan lineup either. The key isn’t going to be stopping Withey, because that isn’t going to happen. They can’t let him get block happy either, as his offensive game seems to feed off of his defensive game. When Withey is rejecting all sorts of shots in the lane, he tends to get himself some more opportunities on the other side of the court, and quite frequently, those shots that he takes are of a very high percentage.

Sweet 16 Odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
#4 Michigan Wolverines +2
#1 Kansas Jayhawks -2
Over/Under 136
Click Here to Bet Your Sweet 16 Picks!

Key #2: Michigan simply has to get some points on the board
Here are some stats for you that might blow your mind. The Wolverines played some flat out awesome defensive teams this season. Michigan played a total of seven games against Top 25 defensive teams, two against Michigan State, two against Wisconsin, two against Ohio State, and one against Pittsburgh. In games against those teams, the Wolverines averaged just 57.3 points per 40 minutes. (Remember that a game against Ohio State and one against Wisconsin went to overtime.) In Kansas’ last 25 NCAA Tournament games, it has played to the ‘under’ to the tune of a 21-4 record. In that stretch, the team has allowed just 61.4 points per game. In the games that it has lost in the dance since 2007, it has allowed 68.4 points per game, and each of the foes scored at least 66 points against the Jayhawks. In the wins that it has had in that run, it has allowed 59.7 points per game and has only allowed more than 65 points twice in those games. That’s just a remarkably consistent stat for Head Coach Bill Self and the gang, and if Michigan doesn’t plan on getting into the 60s in this one, it isn’t going to end up winning the game.

Key #3: Glenn Robinson III has to continue to avoid being a no-show
The Big Dog’s son has had himself a very interesting first year with the Wolverines. He averaged 11.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he really did show tremendous flashes of athleticism along the way. Robinson though, was wildly inconsistent throughout the season. He scored eight points or fewer 12 times this season in 35 games. In those games where he scored eight or fewer, the Wolverines averaged just 68.3 points per game. They went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS. In games in which Robinson scored at least nine points, Michigan went 22-1 SU and 13-7-1 ATS. When you take out the games against teams that aren’t dancing, what’s left are an 0-6 SU record and a 1-5 ATS mark. When Robinson did score at least nine points against tourney teams this year, Big Blue is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. That’s a humongous overlay, and it’s further proof that the Wolverines really need Robinson to step it up and remain a consistent player if they want to have any realistic chance of coming away with a ‘W’.

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