Underdogs are typically the way to go… This bodes awfully well for New Orleans, particularly catching so many points. The only teams to cover a spread higher than four points in recent Super Bowls have been these Indianapolis Colts in 2007 (-7 vs. Chicago Bears) and the Denver Broncos in 1999 (-7.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons). Aside from that, dogs larger than four points have been golden, going 6-2 ATS dating back to 1996. The underdog has covered six of the L/8 Super Bowls overall as well.

Run, run, run, as much as you can… Once again, in all likelihood, this is a huge trend that will be solid for the Saints. In the previous 43 Super Bowls, the team running the ball more in the game went a stellar 37-4 SU. (In Super Bowl V, both the Cowboys and Colts ran the ball 31 times. The same happened when the Bills and Cowboys rushed the pigskin 29 times apiece in Super Bowl XXVII) The Colts pass the ball on almost 63% of their offensive downs. New Orleans is still a pass-happy squad, but it only puts the pill in the air 55% of the time. The Saints are averaging carrying the ball 6.3 times per game more than Indianapolis does. Don’t think that the Colts don’t know about this stat though. An aerial based team in 2007 itself, the Colts still ran the ball 40 times combined with RBs Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, and that’s why they captured Super Bowl XLI.

All Over the Under… Reaching 56.5 points in any NFL betting battle is difficult, but the truth of the matter is that it’s very possible, especially when you consider how good these two offenses are that will take the field on Sunday afternoon in Miami. However, keep in mind that only eight Super Bowls have exceeded 56 points in NFL history, and none have gotten there since 2004. It’s not like there has been a lack of offensive firepower in the big game either of late. Last season, the Cardinals had one of the highest-flying offenses in the league. The same could be said about the record-setting Pats of 2007-08 and the Colts from ’06-’07. Chew on this as well. Indianapolis only had three games this season, including the playoffs, get to that 57+ point mark. New Orleans has played both of its playoff games beyond that number and did play six games past that point in the regular season. However, only three of those occurred away from the Superdome.

Watch out for moneyline value… Normally speaking in the regular season, teams that are favored by 5.5-6 points are usually lined around -250 or so on the moneyline. But this is the Super Bowl, and the majority of money either comes in on the favorites to cover the football betting line, or the underdog to win outright on the moneyline. The end result? Deflated numbers for the favorites to win SU. Right now, at Diamond Sportsbook, you can find Indianapolis lined at -220, and if you shop, you may be able to find a -200 or so by game time.